Cheery-Erosion — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$26

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

72.8%

Resolved (90d)

485

Trades (90d)

778

4,986 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.95K

$34.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 11-05 21:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 228 days

Categories

Other

80% 73% -$127

Crypto

19% 34% -$32

Sports

0% 97% -$3

Politics

0% 80% +$1

Tech

0% 58% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No		+5	$3	91¢	$5	+$1	11-03 00:19
Will gemini-4-carbon-high be the best AI model on November 16, 2026?	No		+5	$1	20¢	$1	$0	11-05 21:59
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 2 – Nov 6?	No	—	+5	$3	7¢	$0	-$3	11-04 04:08
Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	—	+5	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	10-28 17:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12?	36	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$3	05-12 15:48
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7?	15	$504	256	250	+6	No	+$1	05-07 03:38
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 8?	11	$404	205	200	+5	No	+$1	05-08 13:48
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 1?	12	$397	200	198	+2	No	+$0	05-01 07:19
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 16?	7	$396	200	200	+0	No	+$4	05-16 00:58
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3?	6	$299	150	150	+0	No	+$0	05-03 06:22
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3?	6	$297	179	120	+59	No	+$2	06-03 06:28
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 20?	9	$252	136	136	+0	No	+$14	05-19 21:53
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5?	6	$239	120	120	+0	No	+$1	06-05 04:01
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3?	5	$239	120	120	+0	No	+$1	06-03 21:03
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 13?	3	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-13 03:18
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9?	3	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-09 11:36
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 12?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-12 18:14
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-10 04:32
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 10?	15	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-10 19:44
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-08 17:20
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 11?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-11 16:37
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 10?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-10 19:55
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 9?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-09 16:14
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 10?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-10 19:34
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 17?	8	$198	100	100	+0	No	+$2	05-17 12:09
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 12?	2	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$2	05-12 23:59
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 14?	2	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$2	05-14 18:20
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	12	$180	100	80	+20	No	+$0	04-09 06:55
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 20 2026 29c	24	$160	80	80	+0	No	+$0	04-20 05:54
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5?	7	$141	82	60	+22	No	+$1	06-05 15:13
highest temperature in chengdu on april 10 2026 26corhigher	6	$140	70	70	+0	No	+$0	04-10 15:45
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 15 2026 29c	12	$137	77	60	+17	No	+$0	04-15 07:10
highest temperature in seoul on april 15 2026 19c	8	$121	61	60	+1	No	+$0	04-15 03:00
highest temperature in tokyo on april 22 2026 21c	8	$120	60	60	+0	No	+$0	04-22 02:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 21:59:54	Will gemini-4-carbon-high be the best AI model on November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x21e55d…
11-05 16:20:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on November 5?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x102c0b…
11-05 15:05:54	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 8?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xc09340…
11-05 14:56:00	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 7?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x90c248…
11-05 12:51:46	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x4c0649…
11-05 00:49:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on November 5?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xec3d76…
11-04 17:55:30	Will Google (GOOGL) close at $295-$300 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 2 – Nov 6?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x0d0d78…
11-04 17:00:03	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 4?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7adc0d…
11-04 16:36:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 4?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa17160…
11-04 09:49:45	Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$260 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 2 – Nov 6?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x673cde…
11-04 04:44:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 4?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xcec6fc…
11-04 04:08:16	Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 2 – Nov 6?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xce622e…
11-03 19:10:06	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 6?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x01f308…
11-03 17:53:09	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x83d1f8…
11-03 05:02:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 3?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8ed045…
11-03 00:19:34	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0xd5d0c0…
11-03 00:19:31	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x6813c0…
11-03 00:09:10	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x0630a5…
11-03 00:08:21	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd17755…
11-02 23:30:34	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x6c980d…
11-02 18:42:27	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xc6f35f…
11-02 18:30:16	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of November 2?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xe95432…
11-02 18:29:51	Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $60-$70 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 2 – Nov 6?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd8f497…
11-02 18:28:06	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 4?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x983cf0…
11-02 18:28:06	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 5?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x188fd0…
11-02 17:00:51	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xa56b20…
11-02 17:00:43	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x29c6a9…
11-02 06:21:30	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 2-November 8?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x63b553…
11-01 10:02:54	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 3?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xa6de13…
10-31 19:29:49	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 2?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xe604c4…
10-31 08:23:43	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x9c4ae8…
10-30 16:24:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 31?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xda8bc6…
10-30 15:26:15	Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on October 30?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xaf48d3…
10-30 14:17:21	Will Meta (META) close at $610-$620 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xab5897…
10-30 13:52:36	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x89b658…
10-30 12:29:28	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 1?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x202069…
10-30 10:05:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 30?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xafbb09…
10-30 03:48:28	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4da641…
10-30 03:48:27	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xccb6b7…
10-30 02:39:00	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xdede46…
10-30 02:38:52	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcea636…
10-30 01:03:42	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xdb7faa…
10-29 23:22:49	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x2cd4b6…
10-29 19:59:13	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on November 1?	No	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x74cda3…
10-29 14:17:16	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x35a3be…
10-29 12:51:56	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $140-$145 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x7ba875…
10-29 12:35:13	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 31?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x3c6b3d…
10-29 04:07:59	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 30?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x7ba8d9…
10-29 02:35:49	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6ddfc3…
10-29 02:28:22	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 29?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x63ab72…
10-29 00:21:38	Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on October 31?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x819b70…
10-28 21:35:10	Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$300 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xc4c802…
10-28 19:25:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe732b7…
10-28 19:16:10	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xf4c486…
10-28 19:03:40	Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on October 30?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2316c3…
10-28 17:09:07	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x239b59…
10-28 17:06:23	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x808124…
10-28 13:17:53	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x75aa47…
10-28 10:23:34	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xf0abe1…
10-27 23:48:27	Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on October 29?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xe791c9…
10-27 22:27:00	Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0xe28a77…
10-27 21:18:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc20b6a…
10-27 18:44:12	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x93d513…
10-27 17:32:33	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x0f3a53…
10-27 15:59:26	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 27?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4ce424…
10-27 15:57:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 27?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe79e5a…
10-27 14:26:51	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe5824e…
10-27 12:39:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x2cb0a4…
10-27 11:05:08	Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on October 27?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xcffc55…
10-27 10:16:30	Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xb6929a…
10-27 10:14:45	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x9b0d0e…
10-27 08:22:36	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x979b68…
10-27 08:19:12	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x8397ed…
10-27 06:50:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x50130a…
10-26 20:34:21	Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x15deed…
10-26 17:33:53	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	0	22¢	$0	0x941ff6…
10-26 16:56:38	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xeffb00…
10-26 16:49:35	Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x336ba2…
10-26 16:01:47	Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on October 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd95553…
10-26 15:52:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 26?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x3c3dea…
10-26 15:48:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8a4d17…
10-26 15:26:30	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xaa75c8…
10-26 15:26:30	Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x6f31d3…
10-26 15:21:05	Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on October 26?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xb6ee21…
10-26 13:35:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x193d49…
10-26 13:33:57	Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$395 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 26 – Oct 30?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xf176c9…
10-26 00:23:09	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x638b26…
10-25 16:05:59	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 25?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf28254…
10-24 17:32:50	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xba83a6…
10-24 16:31:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x1d61b1…
10-24 15:23:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x17d641…
10-24 14:10:33	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x9a54f8…
10-24 12:37:11	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x0ebddf…
10-24 09:16:09	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 27?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd6071b…
10-24 09:07:44	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 26?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x6b8c22…
10-24 09:01:41	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 25?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x6d73c0…
10-24 06:16:39	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x0fcc0a…
10-24 02:59:12	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xc7d58b…
10-23 23:33:27	will nflx close between 60 and 70 week october 30 2026	No	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x75e99d…
10-23 22:55:03	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on October 24?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x364b4b…