Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$318

Unrealized P&L

+$263

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved

253

Trades

1,101

lifetime

Volume

$14.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$236

5 positions

First seen

2026-07-28

last 10-28 04:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Other

66% 47% -$129

Politics

30% 44% -$147

Tech

3% 67% +$2

Pop-Culture

1% 29% -$51

Sports

0% 75% +$5

Crypto

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	+230	$57	81¢	$186	+$129	10-19 12:46
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+30	$20	88¢	$26	+$6	10-26 16:27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+302	$12	4¢	$12	+$0	10-27 21:44
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	+36	$36	19¢	$7	-$29	10-21 21:08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	+5	-$152	98¢	$5	+$157	10-19 15:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	48	$590	590	562	+29	Yes	+$69	10-18 14:26
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	30	$545	330	330	+0	No	+$30	09-30 16:14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	4	$535	277	277	+0	Yes	+$3	10-04 21:59
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% in October?	7	$500	279	278	+1	open	—	10-09 04:06
Romanian PM Bolojan out by September 30?	4	$330	221	221	+0	No	+$100	09-26 19:57
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 20?	11	$309	286	257	+29	Up	+$28	10-20 04:11
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	6	$298	272	272	+0	open	—	09-27 08:32
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12?	5	$288	275	34	+241	Down	+$18	10-12 19:56
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	20	$250	239	234	+5	open	—	10-19 15:18
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	5	$234	263	13	+249	No	+$41	09-30 17:27
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	32	$221	416	183	+233	Up	-$67	10-26 14:45
Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 3%-6%?	2	$219	290	5	+285	open	—	10-25 15:21
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$217	302	17	+285	Yes	-$170	10-04 20:35
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	9	$213	140	120	+20	Up	+$36	10-21 17:17
Will Centre Party (C) win at least 9% of all valid votes?	3	$207	214	50	+164	No	+$44	09-12 14:29
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 TOUR Championship?	2	$206	208	0	+208	No	+$2	08-29 20:17
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	4	$200	283	0	+283	open	—	10-10 00:32
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	21	$193	288	288	+0	Up	-$77	10-19 11:38
Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	2	$192	215	0	+215	No	+$23	09-14 10:38
will warsh say trump during september press conference 20260909	1	$189	212	0	+212	No	+$23	09-16 19:08
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	1	$188	234	0	+234	Yes	+$46	09-23 21:17
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	10	$186	185	81	+104	Down	+$26	10-23 15:46
Will Rob Howard win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?	9	$184	232	139	+93	Yes	-$47	10-16 21:06
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	8	$180	289	7	+282	Up	+$111	10-15 18:43
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	7	$174	229	10	+219	No	-$36	08-30 22:08
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	3	$166	231	0	+231	No	+$65	09-24 10:59
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	6	$162	232	76	+157	No	+$79	09-24 14:18
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?	1	$158	200	0	+200	open	—	10-19 18:11
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	8	$146	205	41	+164	open	—	10-25 11:46
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	6	$145	191	98	+93	Yes	-$81	10-16 21:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 05:49:26	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0xad28d0…
10-28 04:51:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	No	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x6e55d4…
10-28 03:23:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xe6d889…
10-28 03:13:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xd685af…
10-28 00:18:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	91	52¢	$47	0xeccef5…
10-28 00:07:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x952cfa…
10-27 22:04:14	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	302	31¢	$94	0xe7c4f7…
10-27 21:55:50	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in October?	No	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x91821d…
10-27 21:44:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	302	4¢	$12	0x711d1e…
10-27 19:46:33	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xf1e318…
10-27 19:15:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x62d138…
10-27 13:38:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x74c26b…
10-27 13:31:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x58b026…
10-27 12:47:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0x7fc436…
10-27 12:43:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x706693…
10-27 12:08:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x9734cb…
10-26 22:21:47	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x1d4529…
10-26 21:34:26	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x749fa1…
10-26 19:06:50	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x2c351b…
10-26 18:56:53	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x39e573…
10-26 18:39:09	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x3f791d…
10-26 17:53:50	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x2ce10d…
10-26 17:52:59	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	104	9¢	$9	0xc44a97…
10-26 17:37:42	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	34	9¢	$3	0x6a29dc…
10-26 17:28:47	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xb2e619…
10-26 17:26:24	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0xebb841…
10-26 17:22:05	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x9c947f…
10-26 16:27:53	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x90d1ce…
10-26 16:14:23	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0xf3012b…
10-26 16:06:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	47	41¢	$19	0xdde761…
10-26 15:30:51	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x42045d…
10-26 15:17:15	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x3e41fe…
10-26 14:48:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	229	6¢	$15	0x6f6b82…
10-26 14:45:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x80267c…
10-26 14:43:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0xffcfac…
10-26 14:31:44	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x0fb90c…
10-26 14:28:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xf26d62…
10-26 14:15:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x68facd…
10-26 14:05:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb61dff…
10-26 14:05:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x1943e0…
10-26 13:59:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0xa71cd2…
10-26 13:52:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0x20ef64…
10-26 13:44:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xa01d23…
10-26 13:35:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xd29933…
10-26 13:09:45	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x5e452d…
10-26 13:09:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	88	26¢	$23	0xbbd2d4…
10-26 13:09:33	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0xa1ea1b…
10-26 13:09:03	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	114	26¢	$29	0xb85eab…
10-26 13:08:47	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	12	26¢	$3	0x350df4…
10-26 12:18:47	Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	17	9¢	$2	0xf42246…
10-26 12:18:47	Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x9ee9e1…
10-26 12:15:33	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xf27543…
10-26 12:14:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x323aec…
10-26 12:13:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x169f19…
10-26 12:12:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x3b6d74…
10-26 12:09:17	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0xe1575c…
10-26 11:53:53	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x34dee5…
10-26 11:43:03	Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	62	25¢	$16	0xe44505…
10-26 11:36:18	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	27	20¢	$5	0x97942f…
10-26 10:58:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	26	41¢	$11	0xa20ebb…
10-26 10:38:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xff5414…
10-26 10:38:39	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	86	29¢	$25	0x7ee0c0…
10-26 10:26:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	229	4¢	$9	0x12bed3…
10-26 08:52:44	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb2e98e…
10-26 08:25:57	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1ba50e…
10-26 08:03:05	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xef53a4…
10-26 08:01:59	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x9762be…
10-26 07:59:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0xbb88bd…
10-26 07:23:45	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	202	21¢	$43	0x983ce3…
10-26 07:00:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0x1bf7a1…
10-26 06:36:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	15	42¢	$6	0xbd94d5…
10-26 04:42:33	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x412c07…
10-25 16:03:42	Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	63¢	$13	0xdd0502…
10-25 15:59:51	Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x464004…
10-25 15:37:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xe85dfc…
10-25 15:21:26	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x10c2f1…
10-25 13:48:24	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x408201…
10-25 13:38:15	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x73fd06…
10-25 11:57:00	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x12a904…
10-25 11:46:36	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x940fd5…
10-25 11:46:33	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x960269…
10-25 11:45:29	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x8e1e39…
10-25 10:12:45	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x8733b2…
10-25 09:59:33	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	22	44¢	$10	0xd8dcd5…
10-25 09:46:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0xc33c10…
10-25 09:44:27	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	6	44¢	$3	0xee1f26…
10-25 09:43:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0x4bd952…
10-25 09:43:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0xbd9b81…
10-25 09:43:03	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x5d7e2b…
10-25 09:21:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	41	48¢	$20	0x118027…
10-25 09:18:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x7b2abd…
10-25 09:18:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xe03ae8…
10-25 08:01:26	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	32	9¢	$3	0x80f434…
10-25 06:59:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x6e24fa…
10-25 06:09:45	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	129	14¢	$18	0xcd52e6…
10-25 05:54:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x2b5fa3…
10-25 01:21:42	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0xaa009b…
10-25 00:50:09	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	57	45¢	$26	0xfc71ae…
10-25 00:44:05	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xd736dd…
10-25 00:41:03	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Down	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x46dba3…