Lazy-Immigration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.6%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$2.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 07-20 13:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

58% 50% +$6

Politics

42% 67% +$24

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$659	0	662	-662	open	—	07-03 05:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$567	336	336	+0	open	—	07-15 06:40
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	5	$206	218	218	+0	open	—	05-26 13:01
houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	4	$166	129	129	+0	open	—	04-04 17:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	1	$150	208	0	+208	open	—	06-08 09:49
iran closes its airspace by june 8	3	$136	86	86	+0	open	—	06-08 03:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$89	97	97	+0	open	—	05-19 21:24
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$77	167	167	+0	open	—	04-08 00:02
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	4	$70	92	92	+0	open	—	04-30 07:09
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	4	$66	405	405	+0	open	—	03-29 06:33
Iran leadership change by April 30?	4	$56	135	135	+0	open	—	04-18 08:29
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	2	$44	0	115	-115	open	—	07-20 13:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	3	$36	79	79	+0	open	—	04-21 09:22
us anti cartel operation outside of the us by june 30	1	$33	0	45	-45	open	—	06-10 17:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$30	27	27	+0	Yes	+$24	05-09 05:09
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	3	$25	139	0	+139	open	—	07-20 13:37
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	2	$23	22	22	+0	open	—	04-16 15:45
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	5	$23	39	39	+0	open	—	04-21 20:41
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	2	$22	71	71	+0	open	—	05-09 19:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$20	38	38	+0	Yes	+$0	04-25 20:14
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	2	$18	75	75	+0	open	—	04-24 02:25
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	2	$16	48	48	+0	open	—	04-25 17:48
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$14	54	54	+0	open	—	05-11 09:09
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?	2	$12	24	24	+0	open	—	04-08 00:04
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$12	38	38	+0	open	—	04-07 23:56
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$11	17	17	+0	Yes	+$9	04-18 09:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	3	$11	12	12	+0	open	—	04-20 14:57
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$10	60	60	+0	open	—	04-20 02:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$10	48	0	+48	open	—	05-28 13:40
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$10	45	45	+0	open	—	04-24 04:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 13:37:18	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x42e7ca…
07-20 13:19:04	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	57	32¢	$18	0xceaa95…
07-20 11:57:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	57	44¢	$25	0xc502ba…
07-19 22:03:48	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0x9469eb…
07-19 19:45:34	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa7acac…
07-15 06:40:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	336	99¢	$332	0xb7cf89…
07-03 05:32:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	632	100¢	$630	0x01cfe3…
06-27 20:06:31	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x640be2…
06-27 20:05:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xfe3dfa…
06-26 18:20:14	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x8e6d10…
06-19 09:27:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	66	53¢	$35	0x4f09f4…
06-16 19:49:43	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x29e157…
06-16 09:49:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x730c47…
06-14 19:38:25	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	2¢	$2	0x9c1874…
06-10 17:49:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	270	74¢	$200	0xa790e1…
06-10 17:49:03	us anti cartel operation outside of the us by june 30	No	SELL	45	73¢	$33	0x2e43f5…
06-08 09:49:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	208	72¢	$150	0xd2b805…
06-08 07:08:54	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0x21cf33…
06-08 06:21:36	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	21	10¢	$2	0x6fb49e…
06-08 03:28:30	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	86	100¢	$86	0xaad2ef…
06-07 20:39:31	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x077549…
06-07 20:31:58	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xaf7cf9…
06-07 20:26:54	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0xc30067…
06-07 13:40:13	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	SELL	54	12¢	$6	0x332919…
05-29 21:04:59	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x4d1536…
05-28 13:40:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xeba4c2…
05-26 15:38:27	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	1¢	$0	0xe80b4e…
05-26 13:01:09	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	218	19¢	$41	0x77ca06…
05-22 13:38:22	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x547903…
05-21 13:49:12	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xeba1ab…
05-19 21:24:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	73	81¢	$59	0x02eb09…
05-18 16:03:29	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x3c313f…
05-18 16:02:32	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x77dc66…
05-11 09:09:44	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	54	8¢	$4	0xb54303…
05-11 03:25:32	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	28	10¢	$3	0xb04cbe…
05-09 19:03:34	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	SELL	71	10¢	$7	0x1deaa3…
05-09 08:07:47	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x2fdad0…
05-09 05:09:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xf6b7b9…
05-01 19:25:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x9ada0e…
04-30 15:08:02	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x427860…
04-30 07:09:06	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	42	33¢	$14	0x0649af…
04-29 20:29:38	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xfcae35…
04-26 13:37:38	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x3c29e4…
04-26 04:14:14	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	5¢	$2	0xe5383b…
04-25 20:18:50	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	5¢	$2	0x3691a0…
04-25 20:14:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0x7835f1…
04-25 19:35:08	Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?	Yes	SELL	33	4¢	$1	0x4e39df…
04-25 17:48:44	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	SELL	48	13¢	$6	0x621b00…
04-24 07:18:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	40¢	$10	0x974ace…
04-24 06:20:24	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x4ab821…
04-24 06:05:52	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x4b024c…
04-24 05:53:36	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	21¢	$15	0x9e53ed…
04-24 05:52:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xec6d7e…
04-24 05:28:36	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	12	28¢	$4	0x89e519…
04-24 04:46:56	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	Yes	SELL	28	7¢	$2	0x4dbb62…
04-24 04:46:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	45	10¢	$5	0xb5765d…
04-24 02:25:38	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	75	11¢	$8	0x0bf886…
04-22 17:13:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xee8571…
04-22 17:09:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	43	3¢	$1	0x78e52e…
04-22 17:06:44	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0xe935be…
04-22 16:01:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x9ef99e…
04-22 14:01:48	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	75	13¢	$10	0xd3d3aa…
04-21 23:11:02	U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xb55a49…
04-21 20:41:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xa687f5…
04-21 10:57:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xe4a6fc…
04-21 09:22:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	SELL	79	27¢	$21	0xd6e17c…
04-21 09:20:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	SELL	19	13¢	$2	0x51a6c5…
04-20 21:15:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb0f035…
04-20 20:24:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x467b6f…
04-20 17:52:42	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	No	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x55e655…
04-20 16:34:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x494f51…
04-20 14:57:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	No	SELL	12	70¢	$9	0xe85ac3…
04-20 13:54:28	Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xdd6db2…
04-20 13:53:06	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x71a2b9…
04-20 13:52:46	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x405865…
04-20 13:51:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x35a9a4…
04-20 13:50:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x9464d7…
04-20 13:50:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xaa4040…
04-20 02:40:56	Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	60	9¢	$5	0x76783b…
04-19 08:31:24	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0xfe3b46…
04-18 09:12:50	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	17	62¢	$10	0x05e7ce…
04-18 08:29:54	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xc4ff8f…
04-18 08:29:24	Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x2b3844…
04-17 10:42:36	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xb11833…
04-17 03:46:50	Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xc6d406…
04-17 03:45:56	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x6efca9…
04-17 03:42:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xea166e…
04-17 02:59:12	Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?	Yes	BUY	36	8¢	$3	0x1e2894…
04-16 15:45:32	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x08aa97…
04-15 14:08:24	Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	3¢	$1	0x8334d9…
04-12 19:16:37	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x599b5b…
04-09 07:16:07	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x4121c1…
04-09 07:15:09	Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xe61665…
04-09 07:14:07	Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	8¢	$3	0x7a4513…
04-09 07:04:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x05ffa9…
04-09 07:04:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	6¢	$2	0x9c8c7c…
04-09 07:03:43	Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xed6b96…
04-08 16:55:21	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x998688…
04-08 16:55:11	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xcff3ed…
04-08 00:50:27	Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xbb77a5…