Realized P&L
+$176
Unrealized P&L
+$1.21K
Hit rate
21.2%
Resolved
386
Trades
7,059
lifetime
Volume
$123.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$12.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-03
last 10-27 20:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 58 days
Categories
Other
54% 30% -$1,198
Politics
22% 28% +$1,333
Sports
17% 37% -$150
Crypto
4% 50% +$224
Tech
4% 20% -$24
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
9 active days in 12wk • peak 1257 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,005 $1,702 82¢ $1.6K -$67 07-09 00:37
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes +1,400 $864 100¢ $1.4K +$531 07-09 08:41
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +1,458 $624 92¢ $1.3K +$710 07-12 14:39
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +851 $746 88¢ $750 +$4 07-10 08:08
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +709 $573 96¢ $684 +$110 07-11 09:51
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +625 $575 94¢ $584 +$9 07-09 13:13
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? No +528 $426 100¢ $528 +$102 10-23 20:26
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes +869 $392 53¢ $461 +$69 10-21 13:45
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? No +869 $495 47¢ $408 -$87 10-21 13:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +2,005 $308 18¢ $371 +$63 07-13 06:09
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +674 $251 53¢ $358 +$107 10-16 13:18
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? No +470 $323 76¢ $355 +$32 10-16 15:12
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +445 $268 79¢ $353 +$85 10-16 17:00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +532 $399 64¢ $338 -$61 10-16 17:08
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +400 $88 80¢ $318 +$230 10-16 15:53
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +674 $440 47¢ $316 -$124 10-21 22:13
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +494 $294 61¢ $303 +$9 07-09 07:35
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +220 $174 96¢ $212 +$37 07-09 15:56
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +200 $68 100¢ $200 +$132 10-16 22:07
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +532 $138 36¢ $194 +$56 10-16 17:08
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +494 $201 39¢ $191 -$9 07-09 21:34
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +201 $173 82¢ $164 -$9 10-16 21:43
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +227 $174 70¢ $160 -$14 10-16 21:43
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? Yes +166 $55 87¢ $144 +$89 10-24 09:46
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? No +150 $118 93¢ $139 +$21 10-24 02:04
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No +157 $117 82¢ $129 +$13 07-11 09:52
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +1,458 $925 8¢ $124 -$801 07-10 10:05
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? Yes +470 $160 24¢ $115 -$45 10-16 09:12
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +150 $100 70¢ $104 +$4 10-24 12:55
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +107 $85 96¢ $103 +$18 07-08 15:40