Offensive-Close — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

90.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,502

lifetime

Volume

$37.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-13

last 06-12 01:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

89% 50% +$4

Crypto

7% 0% $-3

Other

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+36	$7	14¢	$5	$-2	06-12 01:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	41	$2.6K	2,143	2,143	+0	open	—	04-04 03:44
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	24	$2.2K	1,931	1,931	+0	open	—	03-19 03:15
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	23	$2.2K	1,269	1,269	+0	open	—	03-08 13:46
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	25	$2.1K	1,867	1,867	+0	open	—	03-07 03:49
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	8	$2.0K	1,137	1,137	+0	open	—	03-07 15:49
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	18	$1.5K	1,078	1,078	+0	open	—	03-29 15:59
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	16	$1.3K	1,022	1,026	-4	open	—	03-13 20:03
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	30	$1.2K	997	886	+111	open	—	03-15 01:43
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$1.1K	922	922	+0	open	—	02-28 06:25
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	15	$1.1K	704	704	+0	open	—	03-27 01:13
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	25	$1.1K	1,967	1,967	+0	open	—	03-31 11:09
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 5 748 625	10	$1.0K	603	603	+0	open	—	03-05 20:36
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	3	$973	996	996	+0	open	—	02-28 06:22
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$831	430	430	+0	open	—	02-28 02:52
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	7	$768	663	663	+0	open	—	02-28 03:57
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	6	$683	397	397	+0	open	—	03-06 05:09
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	12	$658	508	508	+0	open	—	02-28 03:18
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	11	$653	370	370	+0	open	—	03-06 15:50
will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 23 2026	11	$610	364	364	+0	open	—	03-23 03:19
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	2	$606	392	392	+0	open	—	02-28 06:34
will the us invade iran by march 31	15	$556	2,208	2,208	+0	open	—	03-20 20:52
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	13	$484	1,046	1,046	+0	open	—	03-08 22:41
us forces enter iran by march 7	9	$455	244	244	+0	open	—	03-05 22:26
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	4	$450	345	345	+0	open	—	03-13 21:35
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 12 278	8	$438	363	363	+0	open	—	03-08 16:36
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$398	250	250	+0	open	—	03-18 23:59
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	4	$395	226	226	+0	open	—	03-04 14:19
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$375	287	287	+0	open	—	03-19 19:53
will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 20 2026	3	$371	201	201	+0	open	—	03-20 14:10
will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 786	4	$313	167	167	+0	open	—	02-28 03:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 01:26:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xf435ae…
06-11 16:23:57	btc updown 5m 1781194800	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x02dd24…
06-11 16:23:13	btc updown 5m 1781194800	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2d6b4f…
06-11 16:19:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	26¢	$6	0x70f3f4…
06-11 16:18:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x15b2f7…
06-09 17:44:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x34a695…
06-09 17:00:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	44	19¢	$8	0x61aa41…
06-06 18:42:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	44	16¢	$7	0x9a4a49…
05-28 02:51:16	NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?	Canada	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x40f85d…
05-21 03:39:30	NHL: Stanley Cup Winner USA or Canada?	Canada	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0xd85c41…
05-21 03:38:53	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	41	4¢	$2	0x2e202e…
05-17 22:50:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	25	40¢	$10	0xeec278…
05-06 19:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc5f992…
05-06 19:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xc1b1c8…
05-04 21:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x802503…
05-04 19:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0x21694d…
05-04 19:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x261175…
05-04 19:36:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9dbc3e…
05-04 19:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xaabecf…
05-04 19:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0xd6944d…
05-04 19:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x30e2a1…
05-04 19:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6d8539…
05-04 19:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf92ff7…
05-04 17:55:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x5bbff3…
05-04 17:54:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0x2a8b3e…
05-04 17:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xbc2253…
05-04 17:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x53569d…
05-04 17:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x3ef936…
05-04 17:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0eefdd…
05-04 17:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb98765…
05-04 17:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xbff9af…
05-04 17:49:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xef2206…
05-03 20:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x94cf42…
05-03 05:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa78db7…
05-02 18:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa03b7c…
05-02 18:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x101e07…
05-02 18:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x403d72…
05-02 18:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xf062a4…
05-02 05:36:52	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning	Habs	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x5e9c41…
05-01 18:36:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xc4b1ad…
05-01 18:36:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xa55f0e…
05-01 18:36:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	16	50¢	$8	0x7927bd…
05-01 18:36:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0x1e0ce1…
05-01 03:40:18	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x4ceaa1…
05-01 03:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0x47033c…
05-01 03:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbf68fc…
05-01 03:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x364f96…
05-01 03:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x794fcc…
05-01 03:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0a3696…
05-01 03:32:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	6	43¢	$3	0xc24426…
05-01 03:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x455e3a…
05-01 03:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0x1ae045…
05-01 03:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x26f04a…
05-01 03:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x90f48d…
05-01 03:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8d6829…
04-30 22:31:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x8f51c7…
04-30 00:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x8031d9…
04-30 00:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8be971…
04-30 00:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd99943…
04-30 00:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x5b2586…
04-30 00:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0x60ab38…
04-29 16:23:12	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xbf348d…
04-29 16:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x390a55…
04-29 16:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1a7b53…
04-29 01:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x4a53bd…
04-29 01:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6bcee2…
04-29 01:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2660fb…
04-29 01:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xae0276…
04-29 01:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xd50461…
04-29 01:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x031555…
04-29 01:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x92f071…
04-29 01:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x90485c…
04-29 01:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xb2ab19…
04-29 01:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0xa80e3a…
04-29 01:23:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbfc608…
04-29 00:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	26¢	$1	0x81bea9…
04-29 00:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x2526cb…
04-29 00:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xc63897…
04-29 00:37:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x1cbe83…
04-29 00:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x2ff9a1…
04-29 00:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x3315d1…
04-29 00:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	18	17¢	$3	0x9b3028…
04-29 00:25:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x158eab…
04-29 00:24:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x0eb31f…
04-29 00:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x45615c…
04-29 00:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x20f8a0…
04-29 00:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x6b66e9…
04-29 00:18:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0xd62c6e…
04-29 00:18:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4f7049…
04-29 00:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0xe3c76e…
04-29 00:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x650362…
04-29 00:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb00481…
04-29 00:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x6fb9a2…
04-29 00:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc80c95…
04-28 04:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x6f1c92…
04-28 04:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd085d9…
04-28 04:02:06	Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x0d2e38…
04-27 02:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0a890f…
04-27 02:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x34bf3c…
04-27 02:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xef8065…