Novel-Servitude — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.3%

Resolved

Trades

240

lifetime

Volume

$796

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 08-09 14:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 48% +$7

Politics

17% 83% +$22

Other

8% 50% $-1

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	4	$30	28	28	+0	open	—	05-01 12:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	9	$29	53	50	+3	open	—	05-18 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	05-15 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	5	$21	181	14	+167	open	—	05-01 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	5	$20	37	37	+0	open	—	05-01 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	6	$17	62	62	+0	Up	$-7	05-13 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	4	$16	17	17	+0	open	—	05-01 11:47
btc updown 5m 1777039500	4	$15	22	21	+1	open	—	04-24 14:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	3	$15	33	0	+33	open	—	05-14 09:54
btc updown 5m 1777039800	6	$15	38	12	+26	open	—	04-24 14:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	3	$15	25	25	+0	open	—	05-01 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	4	$14	82	82	+0	Down	+$0	05-13 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	3	$13	21	21	+0	open	—	05-26 09:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	4	$12	22	22	+0	open	—	05-18 10:54
btc updown 5m 1777040400	5	$12	71	20	+51	open	—	04-24 14:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	04-24 06:21
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	06-02 18:30
will trump say pope during tpusa events on april 17	1	$10	26	0	+26	open	—	04-17 08:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	3	$10	15	9	+7	Down	$-2	05-13 09:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	2	$9	7	7	+0	open	—	05-18 11:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	3	$9	24	24	+0	open	—	05-26 09:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	3	$9	15	12	+3	open	—	05-01 11:43
btc updown 5m 1777038900	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	04-24 13:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	3	$8	17	9	+8	open	—	05-18 09:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$8	8	8	+0	open	—	04-24 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	3	$8	37	37	+0	Up	$-4	05-13 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	3	$8	17	17	+0	Down	$-1	05-08 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	2	$8	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	3	$8	27	0	+27	open	—	05-01 11:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$8	25	0	+25	open	—	05-01 09:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 14:33:01	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x2c427b…
08-09 14:30:15	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 15 minutes long 20260807064756493	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x63ad0b…
07-31 19:28:41	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x6273d0…
07-31 19:27:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x6edf36…
07-31 19:26:45	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xfa4895…
07-31 19:25:51	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	15¢	$7	0xcdf812…
07-28 06:40:36	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x01e337…
07-22 07:20:58	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30 20260722053445710	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xae88c7…
07-17 09:50:57	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x34bc9f…
06-12 07:12:12	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0xfe7f38…
06-08 09:35:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x0a57df…
06-05 09:59:54	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x6b6f75…
06-02 18:30:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x673e0a…
06-01 20:28:27	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf87b48…
05-27 13:26:32	Will Trump say "Test" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xfd91cd…
05-26 09:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xd5479d…
05-26 09:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xb9c652…
05-26 09:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x56a6a1…
05-26 09:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x86c2ad…
05-26 09:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	21	41¢	$8	0x75d9d4…
05-26 09:06:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x83028b…
05-26 09:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x1899e5…
05-26 09:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	24	22¢	$5	0xa8c94a…
05-26 09:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xcd152b…
05-26 09:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xfc09ab…
05-26 08:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1b3f28…
05-18 11:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0x2075eb…
05-18 11:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc26ee8…
05-18 11:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	7	97¢	$6	0x5f6cf7…
05-18 11:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x7ee67e…
05-18 11:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x74a68f…
05-18 11:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x2833ab…
05-18 11:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x57178f…
05-18 11:08:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0xae5383…
05-18 11:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x371bbb…
05-18 11:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x24ea22…
05-18 11:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x271b8f…
05-18 11:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	35	36¢	$12	0x95d1db…
05-18 11:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x35193d…
05-18 11:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xcde232…
05-18 11:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xfdd844…
05-18 11:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0x5fb633…
05-18 11:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xacd6f7…
05-18 10:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x47d650…
05-18 10:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x27c024…
05-18 10:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xccdb80…
05-18 10:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	22	22¢	$5	0x5eb52a…
05-18 10:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x2a3c3f…
05-18 10:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xf60711…
05-18 10:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xc3ed4b…
05-18 10:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf0074e…
05-18 09:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x8609ab…
05-18 09:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	9	52¢	$4	0x478529…
05-18 09:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x157488…
05-18 08:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x4c9ffa…
05-17 17:54:57	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?	No	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x7292eb…
05-17 17:54:50	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x8a0104…
05-17 17:53:01	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x336469…
05-15 13:21:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x5cd45e…
05-15 13:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xeb1483…
05-15 13:16:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xe62a27…
05-15 13:15:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x1b9cf6…
05-15 13:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x65c41b…
05-15 13:13:06	Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xb3e0f5…
05-15 13:12:52	Will Trump say "Biden" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x34136f…
05-14 10:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x560b4b…
05-14 10:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x2fac91…
05-14 10:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x8343a6…
05-14 09:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xff6293…
05-14 09:54:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x2ee5e5…
05-14 09:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xa04b19…
05-14 09:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x2b565d…
05-13 09:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0x0c2ca5…
05-13 09:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x8a2be4…
05-13 09:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x7f0696…
05-13 09:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0xb701dc…
05-13 09:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	37	6¢	$2	0x03acf8…
05-13 09:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xf33ab8…
05-13 09:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x805f3c…
05-13 09:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x27734f…
05-13 09:30:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xde6888…
05-13 09:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	56	3¢	$2	0x2d31a3…
05-13 09:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xf59cb3…
05-13 09:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x178873…
05-13 09:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xae2bc2…
05-13 09:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	7	51¢	$3	0x01c277…
05-13 09:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x309bef…
05-13 09:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	82	9¢	$7	0x1c7c9e…
05-13 09:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x7ecc2f…
05-13 09:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x9945a2…
05-13 09:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x1ef1d4…
05-13 09:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x5779cf…
05-13 09:16:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0x4add96…
05-13 09:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x5deaa4…
05-13 09:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x168f3c…
05-13 09:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xaba0a6…
05-12 15:29:56	Will "Table" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xbabf36…
05-12 15:29:30	Will "Cookie" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xe92860…
05-12 15:29:05	Will "Algorithm" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x5110ac…
05-11 08:44:18	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xe7cc33…