Belated-Bog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.9%

Resolved

118

Trades

150

lifetime

Volume

$18.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$121

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 10-21 18:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 85% -$33

Other

29% 74% -$4

Politics

18% 70% -$4

Sports

7% 40% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$368	185	185	+0	open	—	05-19 11:19
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?	2	$362	182	182	+0	No	$0	05-20 08:46
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$352	177	177	+0	open	—	05-18 04:18
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$344	173	173	+0	No	$0	05-11 06:53
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	2	$342	171	171	+0	No	$0	04-23 10:08
will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	2	$331	166	166	+0	No	$0	03-25 09:16
will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	2	$331	166	166	+0	No	$0	03-25 09:40
will rasmus hojgaard win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$331	166	166	+0	No	$0	03-31 11:19
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$330	166	166	+0	No	$0	05-07 11:16
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$330	166	166	+0	No	$0	05-07 11:41
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$330	165	165	+0	No	$0	05-14 04:14
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	2	$330	165	165	+0	open	—	05-06 12:10
will villanova win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$326	163	163	+0	No	$0	03-18 09:06
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	2	$316	158	158	+0	No	$0	05-09 11:33
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$290	146	146	+0	open	—	05-21 06:35
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$274	138	138	+0	open	—	05-24 10:54
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$274	138	138	+0	open	—	05-24 10:36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$269	137	137	+0	Yes	-$5	05-26 12:44
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	2	$262	131	131	+0	No	$0	05-23 11:33
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	2	$204	103	103	+0	open	—	05-28 07:14
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19?	1	$184	184	0	+184	Yes	+$0	05-19 11:22
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	1	$178	178	0	+178	No	+$0	05-16 10:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	1	$178	178	0	+178	Yes	+$0	05-17 07:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$178	178	0	+178	No	+$1	05-15 03:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	1	$176	176	0	+176	Yes	+$0	05-18 04:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	1	$174	174	0	+174	Yes	+$0	05-10 06:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13?	1	$173	173	0	+173	Yes	+$0	05-13 13:01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?	1	$173	173	0	+173	No	+$0	05-12 05:34
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on april 17	1	$173	173	0	+173	No	+$0	04-17 07:46
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	1	$173	173	0	+173	No	+$0	05-11 06:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 18:48:08	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in October?	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x640aeb…
09-30 21:19:26	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x82e4c5…
08-31 21:11:52	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x74a17c…
07-10 08:07:50	will aapl dip to 284 by july 6 2026	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x451146…
06-30 11:34:50	will spy reach 780 in june 2026	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x1d6cf9…
05-31 08:52:47	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x485ff7…
05-30 12:07:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x811fd6…
05-29 12:10:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?	Yes	BUY	92	100¢	$91	0x5d1fbc…
05-29 12:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x6c8ce5…
05-28 07:22:28	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xd5bfb5…
05-28 07:14:04	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x149536…
05-28 06:57:42	Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x8f80be…
05-28 06:53:19	Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs	ex-RUBY	BUY	13	57¢	$8	0xbdb608…
05-28 06:49:37	Will Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5cbdd8…
05-27 12:59:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xe44019…
05-27 12:55:58	Will qwen3.7-max-preview have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0b6dd9…
05-26 12:51:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xb6c537…
05-26 12:44:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	137	96¢	$132	0x599e36…
05-25 08:48:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	137	100¢	$137	0x7103e9…
05-24 10:57:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	138	100¢	$137	0x83de5b…
05-24 10:54:04	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	138	99¢	$137	0x58f95b…
05-24 10:38:00	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	138	99¢	$137	0x842fdd…
05-24 10:36:54	Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	138	99¢	$137	0xa8d9a6…
05-24 10:05:01	Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	138	99¢	$137	0x744edf…
05-23 11:40:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$126	0x17e367…
05-23 11:36:02	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xf02228…
05-23 11:33:17	Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	SELL	131	100¢	$131	0xddffbd…
05-23 10:55:01	Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x36b83c…
05-22 11:57:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	132	100¢	$131	0x6e0b83…
05-21 07:01:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	667	0¢	$2	0xdfae3c…
05-21 07:01:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	2,150	0¢	$4	0x15846c…
05-21 07:00:52	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x5179d0…
05-21 06:57:10	Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Hanyu Guo vs Sofia Costoulas	Sofia Costoulas	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0xea8f08…
05-21 06:35:26	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	146	99¢	$145	0x4724b0…
05-20 13:03:39	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	146	99¢	$145	0x976f53…
05-20 13:01:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	890	0¢	$3	0xee4489…
05-20 13:01:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$2	0xfe7de1…
05-20 12:30:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	2,308	0¢	$12	0x79b6ba…
05-20 08:58:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	2,169	0¢	$6	0x70776e…
05-20 08:54:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	3,820	0¢	$11	0xf70665…
05-20 08:46:15	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	182	99¢	$181	0xa02a5e…
05-20 08:26:41	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	182	100¢	$181	0x8602de…
05-20 08:23:18	Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Aoi Ito	Aoi Ito	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x90a334…
05-19 11:22:55	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	184	100¢	$184	0xd460a6…
05-19 11:19:32	Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	185	99¢	$184	0xf0487a…
05-19 10:56:56	Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	185	99¢	$184	0x1a8a15…
05-18 04:23:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	176	100¢	$176	0xca4c2f…
05-18 04:18:06	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	177	99¢	$176	0x511bba…
05-18 03:51:12	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	177	99¢	$176	0xdf2e35…
05-18 03:45:59	LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	HANJIN BRION	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x854f45…
05-17 07:36:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	178	100¢	$178	0x906a11…
05-16 10:36:07	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	178	100¢	$178	0xc598c3…
05-15 03:36:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	178	100¢	$178	0x199258…
05-14 04:17:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0xa42cba…
05-14 04:14:07	Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	165	100¢	$165	0x3f0d39…
05-14 03:55:50	Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x6bfa8e…
05-14 03:50:24	Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs	Nemiga	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0xefa1d9…
05-13 13:01:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0x034747…
05-12 05:34:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0x5ac474…
05-11 06:57:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0xde9469…
05-11 06:53:58	Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	173	99¢	$172	0xe0a75d…
05-11 06:38:18	Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	173	99¢	$172	0xa3fd95…
05-11 06:35:07	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0x0da3c5…
05-10 06:52:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	174	100¢	$174	0xa08c72…
05-09 11:39:47	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	No	BUY	159	100¢	$159	0xbeb271…
05-09 11:33:52	Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	SELL	158	100¢	$158	0xe7bf2d…
05-09 11:18:25	Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	158	100¢	$158	0xce55cf…
05-09 11:14:11	Avalanche vs. Wild	Wild	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x8f54f0…
05-08 04:06:34	Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 4 above $360?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x441e3f…
05-08 04:05:40	Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 4 above $370?	Yes	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x0efe31…
05-07 11:46:22	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	166	100¢	$165	0x700e3c…
05-07 11:41:08	Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	166	100¢	$165	0x9a7bd2…
05-07 11:17:31	Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	166	100¢	$165	0x553e27…
05-07 11:16:19	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	166	100¢	$165	0x4d0265…
05-07 11:00:48	Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	166	100¢	$165	0xca52b2…
05-06 12:14:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	166	100¢	$166	0xcfa0ef…
05-06 12:10:56	Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	165	100¢	$165	0x3dee98…
05-06 11:52:20	Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0xd3a5a9…
05-05 16:28:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0xf314ac…
05-04 07:40:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0xaf2c3d…
05-03 08:54:56	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x6bed2d…
05-02 07:31:30	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	No	BUY	165	99¢	$164	0x8d8640…
05-01 08:30:20	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0xe16aa7…
04-30 07:21:18	Will Google reach $400 in April?	No	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0x59bc64…
04-29 07:47:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0x185998…
04-28 09:09:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0x4f749c…
04-27 15:32:40	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	164	99¢	$161	0x0c5925…
04-26 11:49:16	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0x64a1e9…
04-26 11:48:42	Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	162	99¢	$161	0x9201d9…
04-26 10:35:08	Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	162	100¢	$161	0x58abd2…
04-25 06:15:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25?	No	BUY	162	100¢	$161	0x4aff29…
04-25 05:35:40	Thunder vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x590563…
04-24 04:10:56	ethereum above 2600 on april 24	No	BUY	164	100¢	$164	0xc2c71d…
04-24 03:26:16	Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha	Gentle Mates	BUY	11	59¢	$7	0xa972f4…
04-23 10:13:18	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on april 23	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0xbd4ba0…
04-23 10:08:20	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0x16edf7…
04-23 09:47:54	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x18f0e5…
04-22 04:32:16	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x62250c…
04-21 08:16:34	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 280 299	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x0fc365…
04-20 13:00:28	will the price of ethereum be between 2500 2600 on april 20	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x9003f8…