Secret-Bolero-Injury — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$849

Unrealized P&L

+$976

Hit rate

73.1%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

227

301 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$57.8K

$70.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$233

Open exposure

$16.1K

13 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 11-11 15:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Other

71% 45% +$248

Politics

29% 80% +$385

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 85 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+12,159	$10,468	92¢	$11.2K	+$779	11-09 14:49
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	No	+3,371	$1,719	91¢	$3.1K	+$1,348	08-18 19:29
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	No	+524	$435	94¢	$490	+$55	11-11 12:49
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+3,168	$1,339	15¢	$459	-$880	11-10 15:38
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	+2,781	$916	14¢	$375	-$541	11-11 15:40
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	No	+267	$53	96¢	$257	+$204	11-03 17:01
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	+184	$150	100¢	$183	+$33	11-04 02:55
Will Trump issue a veto in 2026?	Yes	+52	$19	34¢	$18	-$1	11-02 14:56
Will Jessica Tisch be out as New York City Police Commissioner by December 31?	No	+12	$8	97¢	$12	+$4	10-14 15:44
pete hegseth impeached by march 31 2027	Yes	+10	$11	55¢	$6	-$6	11-11 00:03
Will Jessica Tisch be out as New York City Police Commissioner by December 31?	Yes	+81	$5	3¢	$3	-$2	10-28 18:00
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	+1	$21	82¢	$1	-$21	11-02 21:18
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+0	-$3	92¢	$0	+$3	11-02 20:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	10	$10.5K	12,159	0	+12,159	open	—	11-09 14:49
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	5	$4.9K	3,094	3,094	+0	Yes	+$702	11-04 02:38
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	15	$4.9K	5,036	5,036	+0	No	-$2,654	11-04 06:29
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	1	$4.2K	5,555	0	+5,555	No	+$1,355	07-15 15:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	22	$4.1K	6,357	774	+5,583	No	+$1,697	06-18 22:45
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	3	$3.8K	2,360	2,093	+267	open	—	11-03 17:01
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$2.9K	1,573	1,573	+0	Yes	+$221	10-28 00:36
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	6	$2.3K	1,492	1,492	+0	Yes	+$134	11-04 02:08
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	8	$2.3K	1,591	1,591	+0	Yes	+$135	11-04 02:10
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	10	$1.7K	3,371	0	+3,371	open	—	08-18 19:29
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	4	$1.6K	1,783	1,783	+0	Yes	-$1,173	11-04 03:32
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	2	$1.5K	922	922	+0	Yes	+$255	11-04 05:38
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	4	$1.5K	1,152	1,152	+0	Yes	+$163	11-04 01:29
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	5	$1.5K	1,710	1,710	+0	No	-$705	11-04 02:07
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	29	$1.3K	3,181	13	+3,168	open	—	11-10 15:38
Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?	3	$1.3K	749	749	+0	Yes	+$174	11-04 05:40
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	2	$1.1K	691	691	+0	Yes	+$116	11-04 01:32
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	2	$1.1K	633	633	+0	Yes	+$121	11-04 05:40
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$1.1K	539	539	+0	No	+$4	08-18 19:23
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$1.0K	639	639	+0	Yes	+$206	10-25 23:47
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	2	$1.0K	596	596	+0	Yes	+$37	11-04 01:11
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	2	$1.0K	588	588	+0	Yes	+$24	11-04 00:57
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat?	1	$1000	1,419	0	+1,419	Yes	+$419	11-04 02:44
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	12	$920	2,790	9	+2,781	open	—	11-11 15:40
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	5	$801	479	479	+0	Yes	+$99	11-04 01:17
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	4	$796	437	437	+0	No	+$71	06-18 21:08
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	5	$764	875	875	+0	No	-$197	11-04 00:46
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	5	$731	642	642	+0	Yes	-$145	11-04 02:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$617	774	774	+0	Yes	-$608	06-16 14:39
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	2	$617	321	321	+0	Yes	+$17	11-01 18:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 15:40:45	Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x298ea7…
11-11 12:49:13	Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	No	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xd418e6…
11-11 00:03:18	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x0276ba…
11-10 15:38:18	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xca60fd…
11-10 15:38:00	Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x48366c…
11-09 14:49:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x6e8d07…
11-06 09:04:49	Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xfd7127…
11-05 16:10:06	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xa21fe2…
11-05 16:08:30	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	104	51¢	$53	0x01ec51…
11-05 14:44:16	Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	No	BUY	414	84¢	$348	0xfd7207…
11-05 14:40:15	Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x4bcd16…
11-05 14:39:52	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	558	39¢	$218	0x1a20c4…
11-05 07:35:00	Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0x3c8fa0…
11-04 18:47:46	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	277	43¢	$119	0xc0f2a9…
11-04 16:58:55	Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x12ad00…
11-04 16:46:09	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x367e54…
11-04 16:23:45	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	53	45¢	$24	0xbc20ea…
11-04 16:06:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	152	45¢	$68	0xa072c9…
11-04 15:10:36	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0xe2c527…
11-04 15:07:51	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	259	45¢	$117	0x179983…
11-04 15:03:04	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	9¢	$4	0xcf13b4…
11-04 14:58:57	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	113	97¢	$109	0x8e4760…
11-04 14:57:24	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	97	44¢	$43	0xe695f0…
11-04 14:53:40	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	257	44¢	$113	0xe29155…
11-04 14:52:42	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,108	45¢	$499	0x28f310…
11-04 06:29:57	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2,639	14¢	$365	0x464a60…
11-04 06:29:39	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	810	7¢	$56	0x501cf2…
11-04 05:41:33	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	190	79¢	$150	0x4830d6…
11-04 05:40:54	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1,433	84¢	$1,200	0x3d3683…
11-04 05:40:18	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	SELL	633	98¢	$621	0x5952b0…
11-04 05:40:01	Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	749	100¢	$748	0x7fea70…
11-04 05:38:39	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1,120	77¢	$866	0x0e1020…
11-04 05:38:21	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	SELL	922	95¢	$874	0x87b80a…
11-04 05:00:25	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	707	70¢	$498	0xb5d1ce…
11-04 04:47:46	Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x45367c…
11-04 04:46:10	Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x3ae56e…
11-04 04:32:24	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1,220	44¢	$536	0x6066c6…
11-04 04:31:37	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	366	50¢	$185	0x031529…
11-04 03:56:24	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	113	73¢	$83	0x43e8bf…
11-04 03:56:01	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	218	36¢	$80	0x06b5e5…
11-04 03:50:55	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	27	23¢	$6	0xe08948…
11-04 03:42:52	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	53	85¢	$45	0x0d0759…
11-04 03:42:01	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	153	30¢	$46	0x88e472…
11-04 03:35:00	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	52	69¢	$36	0xbe733a…
11-04 03:33:55	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	211	84¢	$176	0xb808b0…
11-04 03:32:10	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1,783	12¢	$221	0xdc0757…
11-04 03:21:31	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	184	68¢	$125	0x8514fe…
11-04 03:20:36	Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	202	36¢	$72	0x78f6d1…
11-04 03:20:13	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat?	Yes	SELL	242	24¢	$58	0xb90d9e…
11-04 02:58:01	Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	193	75¢	$145	0x010b56…
11-04 02:56:12	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	180	55¢	$100	0x7a0188…
11-04 02:55:06	Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	184	82¢	$150	0xc46184…
11-04 02:54:00	Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	202	81¢	$164	0xdad9f7…
11-04 02:52:34	Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	113	89¢	$100	0xf32599…
11-04 02:51:22	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat?	Yes	BUY	242	82¢	$200	0x753155…
11-04 02:47:42	Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	556	77¢	$429	0xd608e3…
11-04 02:44:39	Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1,419	70¢	$1,000	0x03bfcc…
11-04 02:43:42	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	BUY	633	79¢	$500	0xbc84ca…
11-04 02:38:01	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,094	91¢	$2,825	0x0e53fb…
11-04 02:29:30	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	176	66¢	$116	0x2fb87c…
11-04 02:28:49	Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	69	16¢	$11	0xafeaba…
11-04 02:28:10	Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	308	35¢	$109	0x218cf0…
11-04 02:25:24	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	588	68¢	$397	0xeb4cd4…
11-04 02:23:18	Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	278	88¢	$243	0xd4c509…
11-04 02:22:45	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	177	91¢	$161	0x56a3fd…
11-04 02:17:48	Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	119	70¢	$83	0xff89ce…
11-04 02:17:07	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	46	92¢	$42	0xe06465…
11-04 02:12:31	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	1,178	85¢	$1,000	0x2ef9f7…
11-04 02:10:12	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1,233	85¢	$1,053	0x4e9f59…
11-04 02:09:21	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,576	71¢	$1,119	0xf8c209…
11-04 02:08:46	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,237	92¢	$1,138	0xe2de86…
11-04 02:08:19	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	343	74¢	$254	0x17c00f…
11-04 02:07:36	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,331	20¢	$265	0xa453f7…
11-04 01:34:10	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	BUY	922	67¢	$619	0x98ff65…
11-04 01:32:43	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	691	91¢	$629	0xa87178…
11-04 01:29:48	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	980	71¢	$696	0xb2704e…
11-04 01:29:00	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	777	91¢	$707	0xffa6fb…
11-04 01:19:57	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	351	69¢	$242	0xfa1895…
11-04 01:18:55	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	597	42¢	$251	0x2a04be…
11-04 01:18:12	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	532	84¢	$447	0xc01c7f…
11-04 01:17:48	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	479	94¢	$450	0xa26d19…
11-04 01:12:13	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	704	75¢	$530	0x6d9a37…
11-04 01:11:58	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	596	90¢	$537	0x4b7021…
11-04 00:57:28	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	777	66¢	$513	0xf6ee51…
11-04 00:57:10	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	588	89¢	$524	0x826bdd…
11-04 00:47:36	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	166	79¢	$131	0xfc9a0e…
11-04 00:46:43	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	530	26¢	$135	0x4984cb…
11-04 00:31:39	Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	257	60¢	$155	0x8deee1…
11-04 00:30:06	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	334	23¢	$78	0xd1d4a7…
11-04 00:29:15	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	292	29¢	$84	0x9902ee…
11-04 00:12:10	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	346	65¢	$226	0xaeaed3…
11-04 00:10:43	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	375	32¢	$118	0x35cff9…
11-04 00:10:16	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	379	31¢	$118	0xab0214…
11-04 00:08:34	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	119	68¢	$81	0x75d905…
11-04 00:07:21	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	33¢	$84	0x59fc07…
11-04 00:03:42	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	259	65¢	$168	0x2616a0…
11-04 00:02:21	Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	SELL	350	38¢	$132	0x29197b…
11-04 00:00:55	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Texas Senate seats?	No	SELL	481	9¢	$43	0x364a4c…
11-03 23:59:39	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	179	77¢	$138	0x9a9d83…
11-03 23:57:07	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	177	85¢	$150	0x141566…