Several-Disappointment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$48

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

419

lifetime

Volume

$5.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 07-14 19:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

65% 100% +$7

Other

34% 100% +$41

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes		+18	$9	84¢	$15	+$6	07-14 19:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	11	$243	217	217	+0	open	—	03-20 18:55
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	9	$209	248	106	+142	Yes	+$41	05-10 18:22
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$179	100	100	+0	open	—	02-28 07:48
khamenei seen in public by march 7 249 832 798 867	4	$138	100	100	+0	open	—	03-01 05:27
saudi arabia military action against yemen by march 31	4	$119	64	64	+0	open	—	04-03 08:34
houthi military action against saudi arabia by march 31	4	$118	64	64	+0	open	—	04-03 08:35
will netanyahu be pardoned by february 28	3	$116	60	60	+0	open	—	02-19 10:43
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 15	4	$110	59	59	+0	open	—	03-15 18:20
will uae strike iran by march 31	5	$108	94	94	+0	open	—	03-26 12:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	7	$107	59	59	+0	open	—	05-18 12:09
naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	6	$104	135	135	+0	open	—	03-09 17:13
israeli parliament dissolved by june 15	6	$95	150	50	+100	open	—	06-07 07:26
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	3	$93	107	74	+33	open	—	03-08 05:54
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	3	$89	80	20	+60	open	—	05-21 04:48
israel x syria security agreement by march 31	5	$86	50	50	+0	open	—	02-28 17:10
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	5	$84	51	51	+0	open	—	03-07 16:11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$81	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 21:45
will qatar strike iran by march 31	3	$78	48	48	+0	open	—	03-16 21:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$77	50	50	+0	open	—	04-22 21:30
saudi arabia military action against yemen by april 30	3	$76	64	36	+28	open	—	03-30 21:26
will the number of israel rocket alerts since operation lions roar be at least 24000 by march 20 917	2	$74	48	48	+0	open	—	03-19 20:27
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	4	$73	40	40	+0	open	—	05-19 06:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$72	52	52	+0	open	—	03-01 05:50
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	5	$71	59	41	+18	open	—	07-14 19:21
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	04-08 07:47
iran leadership change by march 31	5	$69	48	48	+0	open	—	03-18 21:05
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	2	$68	50	25	+25	open	—	06-14 08:10
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	6	$67	40	40	+0	open	—	03-08 08:29
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	5	$67	38	38	+0	open	—	03-08 09:47
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	3	$66	38	38	+0	open	—	04-01 09:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 19:21:17	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	SELL	41	75¢	$31	0xb9422a…
07-10 04:57:05	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x5cbd70…
07-07 16:24:14	Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x9e28d5…
07-07 06:14:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	35	75¢	$26	0x7f3be6…
07-06 21:01:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x55a5c3…
06-16 19:58:25	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x28f57a…
06-15 15:29:15	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xd1aa1e…
06-15 13:28:51	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x6b5d7f…
06-14 08:10:54	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	Yes	BUY	76	56¢	$43	0x5a266b…
06-14 08:10:19	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	25	90¢	$23	0xf615f8…
06-10 00:03:12	Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0xf14fbf…
06-09 17:34:12	Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xaa2c78…
06-07 21:33:55	Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x77df81…
06-07 19:07:24	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x43510d…
06-07 17:57:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x914d2e…
06-07 07:26:45	israeli parliament dissolved by june 15	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x81fc9c…
06-07 06:17:07	israeli parliament dissolved by june 15	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x431182…
06-02 20:20:27	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x2f2e76…
06-02 20:19:36	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xaab8f2…
06-02 02:02:54	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?	No	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x878c30…
06-02 01:56:22	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?	No	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0xfb8a10…
06-01 00:09:31	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?	No	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0x99125a…
05-31 22:34:44	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xdb8088…
05-31 11:56:16	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xbc8487…
05-31 06:52:46	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x37a616…
05-28 20:04:00	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	17	69¢	$12	0x1e0823…
05-21 08:59:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xfeeca6…
05-21 04:48:46	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x656c41…
05-20 10:26:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x991f88…
05-20 07:03:30	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xd96888…
05-20 03:52:56	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	80	24¢	$19	0xd099eb…
05-19 16:49:58	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	41	23¢	$9	0xdb31a7…
05-19 16:49:58	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0x4bb3f1…
05-19 06:40:18	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0x458dce…
05-18 19:44:17	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x86b983…
05-18 12:09:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x307621…
05-18 05:20:50	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x569f79…
05-18 05:16:12	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0xffc5dc…
05-18 04:39:20	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x71fc6c…
05-17 20:55:45	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf6621c…
05-17 13:08:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x9ce16f…
05-17 11:34:25	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0xb1594f…
05-15 15:24:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0x506924…
05-15 15:09:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x3ae376…
05-14 16:45:59	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xecc121…
05-14 14:31:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0xd976b5…
05-14 14:30:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x7db0be…
05-14 14:29:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xae855c…
05-14 08:48:59	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x035395…
05-14 08:41:12	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x7feeae…
05-14 08:28:36	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xee385b…
05-14 04:42:30	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xfe2f8d…
05-13 22:14:23	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x5b328d…
05-13 20:52:41	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xad1f7a…
05-13 06:46:14	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0xb43c38…
05-13 06:30:17	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x847928…
05-12 17:55:13	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xd15610…
05-12 14:31:47	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xd1d83d…
05-12 04:09:51	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	SELL	37	95¢	$35	0x7886c2…
05-11 07:46:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0xe5e356…
05-10 18:22:46	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x1949af…
05-10 13:08:06	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x695087…
05-10 13:02:28	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x1c5822…
05-10 13:02:00	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x37f8ac…
05-10 12:50:15	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	42	80¢	$34	0x4efd0f…
05-09 20:27:37	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x57142b…
05-09 20:27:06	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x59138c…
05-06 20:28:26	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	48	41¢	$20	0xd650c5…
05-06 09:38:46	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x4c610b…
05-06 09:21:36	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x35478b…
05-05 06:57:28	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x26ca2a…
05-04 19:57:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x32d73e…
05-04 18:40:40	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	25¢	$19	0xf0ba1c…
05-04 12:16:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0x267a45…
05-03 20:29:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x0ec4fb…
04-30 06:07:26	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x85d5e2…
04-29 18:26:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xfa77e2…
04-29 16:12:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	23¢	$3	0xb197cb…
04-28 09:59:00	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 29?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2d4fff…
04-28 07:30:58	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 29?	No	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x81070a…
04-28 07:23:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 29?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x055a27…
04-28 03:38:12	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 28?	Yes	SELL	44	23¢	$10	0x63259e…
04-28 03:38:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 28?	No	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x584b29…
04-27 14:10:12	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 28?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x48fae4…
04-27 14:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 28?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xc0828e…
04-27 14:09:02	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2a4a57…
04-27 11:22:04	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	87¢	$11	0x351ce7…
04-27 10:48:40	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x1f8ee4…
04-27 09:13:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xf05b6e…
04-26 04:50:32	Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	80¢	$27	0xc6e5a5…
04-26 04:48:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x6338ea…
04-26 04:46:26	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xd8da9d…
04-24 06:42:10	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	58	50¢	$29	0xe261be…
04-23 18:54:04	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xc20b43…
04-23 18:53:32	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x41b932…
04-23 14:47:18	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x79d551…
04-23 11:15:16	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0xf1e9df…
04-23 11:12:58	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0x2b0583…
04-23 09:56:04	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0x9a0194…
04-23 09:55:38	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x069503…