Untrue-Newsstand — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$135

Unrealized P&L

-$366

Hit rate

77.5%

Resolved

390

Trades

532

lifetime

Volume

$14.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$257

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 10-24 11:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 90% -$21

Tech

29% 14% +$123

Politics

11% 30% +$102

Other

4% 11% -$319

Sports

0% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 165 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,700	$585	6¢	$176	-$409	10-21 17:45
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+70	$18	72¢	$50	+$32	10-21 17:55
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+286	$20	11¢	$31	+$11	10-24 11:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.4K	4,298	1,598	+2,700	open	—	10-21 17:45
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	3	$1.0K	1,720	1,720	+0	No	+$751	06-23 15:31
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	2	$943	909	909	+0	open	—	09-18 21:53
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$591	1,302	455	+848	Yes	+$101	06-14 22:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	5	$465	353	353	+0	Up	+$15	10-15 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	3	$443	248	248	+0	Up	+$43	10-15 15:38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	2	$415	215	215	+0	Yes	+$15	05-23 22:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	5	$365	342	342	+0	Up	+$65	10-15 15:29
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$300	1,306	0	+1,306	Yes	-$300	09-18 23:34
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	3	$267	148	148	+0	Down	+$17	10-21 22:54
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	3	$264	147	147	+0	Down	+$14	10-21 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	2	$220	121	121	+0	Up	+$20	10-15 14:59
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	2	$216	120	120	+0	Down	+$16	10-21 23:02
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	2	$213	445	0	+445	No	-$213	05-26 01:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	2	$212	114	114	+0	Down	+$13	10-21 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$211	114	114	+0	Down	+$11	10-19 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	2	$210	111	111	+0	Down	+$10	10-15 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	4	$210	157	157	+0	Down	+$0	10-19 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	3	$206	164	101	+63	Down	-$4	10-19 07:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	2	$203	112	112	+0	Up	+$3	10-15 22:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	2	$203	104	104	+0	Down	+$3	10-19 07:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	2	$203	128	128	+0	Down	+$3	10-21 11:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	2	$199	101	101	+0	Up	-$1	10-19 17:18
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	2	$170	1,668	0	+1,668	Yes	-$170	09-22 09:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$163	486	486	+0	No	-$17	05-28 19:27
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	2	$125	188	0	+188	Up	-$125	10-21 23:08
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	3	$115	557	557	+0	No	-$25	05-26 10:17
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	2	$106	1,288	0	+1,288	Yes	-$106	06-23 16:55
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	1	$100	714	0	+714	No	-$100	06-15 18:27
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	1	$100	1,187	0	+1,187	Yes	-$100	06-30 01:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 11:24:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x4ca728…
10-22 11:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x388822…
10-22 11:22:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe42cf4…
10-22 11:14:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3e8b58…
10-22 11:02:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x975cc2…
10-22 10:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x41f61c…
10-22 10:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4f2cd6…
10-22 10:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x0ca4eb…
10-22 10:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc91db0…
10-22 10:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5c406c…
10-22 09:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4f2094…
10-22 09:53:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa8426e…
10-22 09:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x98e333…
10-22 08:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1680b3…
10-21 23:08:23	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x15852e…
10-21 23:05:56	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	33	77¢	$25	0x414f6f…
10-21 23:02:33	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	SELL	120	97¢	$116	0x5bf3d0…
10-21 23:02:18	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	120	84¢	$100	0xa7a920…
10-21 22:57:30	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x2f42b5…
10-21 22:57:06	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	51¢	$25	0x43fc6e…
10-21 22:54:36	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	148	96¢	$142	0x658e18…
10-21 22:53:21	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x44f2bc…
10-21 22:52:11	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0xd3ca15…
10-21 22:49:08	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	SELL	147	94¢	$139	0xa681e2…
10-21 22:48:51	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x957023…
10-21 22:46:15	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xcc5246…
10-21 22:42:12	XRP Up or Down - October 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x53ab65…
10-21 21:37:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x51b452…
10-21 21:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x16f787…
10-21 21:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x80c389…
10-21 21:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf48062…
10-21 21:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x896e74…
10-21 21:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1b4bee…
10-21 20:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2252a9…
10-21 20:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7a1835…
10-21 20:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x00563e…
10-21 20:29:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5df847…
10-21 20:24:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd7b35f…
10-21 20:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc5345c…
10-21 20:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x869f64…
10-21 19:44:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x44a813…
10-21 19:32:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x91777b…
10-21 19:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3f27f0…
10-21 19:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdea6d9…
10-21 19:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb1ba38…
10-21 19:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfe392b…
10-21 19:08:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x39c2e8…
10-21 19:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x922bfc…
10-21 18:57:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa6f404…
10-21 18:52:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1a8814…
10-21 18:47:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x13f107…
10-21 18:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x98574e…
10-21 18:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf2e084…
10-21 18:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1b0658…
10-21 18:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x401168…
10-21 18:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x09f9ba…
10-21 17:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x516935…
10-21 17:55:03	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	26¢	$18	0xd7f96d…
10-21 17:53:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x544fea…
10-21 17:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x95bbe5…
10-21 17:45:08	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	20¢	$300	0x288589…
10-21 17:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x110da8…
10-21 17:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xffc252…
10-21 17:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1956c1…
10-21 17:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd05c31…
10-21 17:18:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x88c841…
10-21 17:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1d7025…
10-21 17:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0c944f…
10-21 17:02:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x44886c…
10-21 16:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0bcf24…
10-21 16:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x33b80e…
10-21 16:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x377c62…
10-21 16:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x649122…
10-21 16:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbd33ff…
10-21 16:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb2b2f9…
10-21 16:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x48a50f…
10-21 16:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe328f4…
10-21 16:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa01873…
10-21 16:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf060a6…
10-21 15:58:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6e6638…
10-21 15:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbc972f…
10-21 15:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7150aa…
10-21 15:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0945db…
10-21 15:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa92350…
10-21 15:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xaf09fd…
10-21 15:17:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa50f07…
10-21 15:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x527cb8…
10-21 15:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd95bfb…
10-21 15:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x623ca0…
10-21 14:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa49ccf…
10-21 14:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x777b08…
10-21 14:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdc8443…
10-21 14:33:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x00f2cb…
10-21 14:28:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x39a3e5…
10-21 14:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x784845…
10-21 14:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x56f6ee…
10-21 14:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x103baa…
10-21 14:08:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe987f3…
10-21 14:02:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x16d73d…
10-21 13:47:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xeb98d7…