Ideal-Derby — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$62

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.5%

Resolved

Trades

2,324

lifetime

Volume

$18.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 05-09 18:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

79% 75% +$60

Other

18% 100% +$2

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 155 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	123	$1.6K	1,633	2,258	-625	No	+$28	05-07 18:44
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	75	$718	516	662	-146	open	—	04-15 21:53
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	53	$672	416	702	-286	open	—	04-26 19:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	23	$665	253	563	-310	open	—	04-30 20:16
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	112	$619	929	1,315	-386	open	—	04-23 22:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	82	$497	422	693	-271	open	—	04-27 18:09
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	39	$483	166	430	-264	open	—	04-21 22:19
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	38	$442	449	556	-106	open	—	04-22 03:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	34	$424	512	568	-57	open	—	04-08 02:12
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	43	$412	333	403	-70	open	—	04-17 19:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	17	$381	238	355	-117	open	—	04-27 19:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	20	$359	96	305	-209	open	—	04-24 17:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	27	$357	167	288	-121	open	—	05-09 18:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	36	$349	993	882	+111	open	—	04-08 00:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	32	$339	235	323	-88	open	—	04-25 21:52
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	19	$323	226	282	-56	open	—	04-11 03:22
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	66	$294	1,764	1,837	-73	open	—	04-30 21:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	20	$268	141	251	-110	open	—	04-22 03:28
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	56	$251	610	868	-258	open	—	05-01 21:54
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	16	$228	159	264	-105	open	—	05-03 04:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	13	$218	90	304	-214	open	—	05-05 12:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	10	$217	103	146	-43	No	+$31	05-05 17:41
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	19	$213	199	199	+0	open	—	04-03 17:58
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	14	$211	147	147	+0	open	—	03-22 22:35
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	18	$201	608	269	+339	open	—	04-08 00:34
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	25	$200	247	321	-74	open	—	04-30 00:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	17	$200	245	245	+0	open	—	04-07 22:37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	22	$199	80	234	-154	open	—	04-25 19:42
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	25	$193	259	318	-59	open	—	05-05 05:17
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	11	$176	108	119	-11	open	—	03-24 19:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 18:53:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	179	83¢	$148	0x93cc38…
05-08 22:44:53	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	66	78¢	$52	0x422d41…
05-08 22:41:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	43	77¢	$33	0xc1073e…
05-07 18:44:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	189	97¢	$182	0x4a8e96…
05-05 19:54:08	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	SELL	41	92¢	$38	0xeb8624…
05-05 18:47:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	37	59¢	$22	0xbe6f84…
05-05 18:00:52	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	131	2¢	$3	0xf46f03…
05-05 18:00:12	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0xde5876…
05-05 18:00:12	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x0c20d0…
05-05 18:00:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x7e5ed9…
05-05 18:00:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x4ea551…
05-05 18:00:02	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xdc7821…
05-05 18:00:00	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xac6cc7…
05-05 18:00:00	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x343ced…
05-05 17:59:54	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	21	21¢	$4	0xe3a555…
05-05 17:49:14	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x3cd0b8…
05-05 17:48:42	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0xc29845…
05-05 17:46:24	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x9e6ae6…
05-05 17:41:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	146	100¢	$146	0x2fe791…
05-05 12:10:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	72¢	$24	0x67c4b5…
05-05 05:17:52	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	44	84¢	$37	0x7cfceb…
05-05 04:30:24	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x50f7b1…
05-05 00:28:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x579dec…
05-04 23:10:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	69	26¢	$18	0x80805b…
05-04 23:05:56	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	6¢	$11	0x0c48b2…
05-04 22:57:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0x9f740d…
05-04 21:56:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	26	71¢	$19	0xbe50e5…
05-04 21:19:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	115	31¢	$36	0x2a38c3…
05-04 21:19:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x880170…
05-04 21:19:00	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	8	71¢	$6	0x48ea49…
05-04 21:18:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xf09bb8…
05-04 21:17:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x71962e…
05-04 21:17:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x4d759c…
05-04 21:17:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xc0bc82…
05-04 21:17:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xba3160…
05-04 21:17:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x3d4a85…
05-04 21:05:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x720a54…
05-04 20:58:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	36	73¢	$26	0x312a1d…
05-04 20:28:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xd221e3…
05-04 20:22:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x6ca3bd…
05-04 20:18:52	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x1aa15d…
05-04 20:16:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	44	25¢	$11	0x4ca8f1…
05-04 20:15:58	Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Small Business Summit?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x34418a…
05-04 20:15:44	Will Trump say "Loan" during Small Business Summit?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xaf0c03…
05-04 20:15:28	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x261cba…
05-04 20:15:18	Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Small Business Summit?	Yes	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x79928d…
05-04 20:12:12	Will Trump say "Loan" during Small Business Summit?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x04419e…
05-04 20:10:16	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xd1fe09…
05-04 20:07:58	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xd77a34…
05-04 20:07:02	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0xef6d46…
05-04 20:07:02	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x69fd21…
05-04 20:07:02	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x5a67ff…
05-04 20:07:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0xbf954b…
05-04 20:07:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x906896…
05-04 20:07:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x672e77…
05-04 20:07:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x592fc3…
05-04 20:07:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x4cafc0…
05-04 20:06:58	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	0	88¢	$0	0x98de7f…
05-04 19:55:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x78d9e1…
05-04 19:55:46	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2977ad…
05-04 19:54:24	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	62	18¢	$11	0x85fbee…
05-04 19:49:32	Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Small Business Summit?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x8bfd04…
05-04 19:49:28	Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during Small Business Summit?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x740a77…
05-04 19:46:20	Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Small Business Summit?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xdda660…
05-04 19:14:56	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x763869…
05-04 19:12:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	23	31¢	$7	0x8bce9a…
05-04 19:10:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	22	32¢	$7	0xdf39e6…
05-04 19:09:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	217	31¢	$67	0x171855…
05-04 18:28:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xc7d5df…
05-04 18:20:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x7d1a64…
05-04 18:02:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x818fee…
05-04 18:01:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xaaf64c…
05-04 18:00:04	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xc3fea3…
05-04 18:00:04	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x968b55…
05-04 17:44:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	266	35¢	$93	0xecb768…
05-04 17:40:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xaf2edf…
05-04 17:40:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x5fe94c…
05-04 17:40:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0xba97c7…
05-04 17:40:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0x4d9e2a…
05-04 17:40:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0x109630…
05-04 17:34:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0xbf17bf…
05-04 17:34:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0xbce2b3…
05-04 17:34:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0xce6f83…
05-04 17:34:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0xc1b29e…
05-04 17:34:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x95b9f2…
05-04 17:34:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x416835…
05-04 17:34:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x66b6b5…
05-04 17:34:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x5c1c5f…
05-04 17:34:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x31797f…
05-04 17:34:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x15555e…
05-04 17:34:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x1e8c05…
05-04 17:32:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	32	82¢	$27	0xe3e800…
05-04 17:32:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x67c7e7…
05-04 17:31:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	213	31¢	$67	0x2cf82f…
05-04 17:31:48	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	223	15¢	$33	0xdfb3c7…
05-04 17:18:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xaa78e8…
05-04 17:16:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	5¢	$5	0x70fc8b…
05-04 17:16:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	5¢	$5	0x12dfc1…
05-04 16:39:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x460605…
05-04 16:37:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xafa86e…