Orange-Mistake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$406

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$681

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$160

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-01

last 06-22 15:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

79% 100% +$400

Other

21% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+174	$80	40¢	$69	$-11	06-22 15:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-404	$-23	10¢	$-38	$-15	06-22 15:24
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	-118	$-34	22¢	$-25	+$9	06-04 12:50
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	-147	$-24	11¢	$-15	+$8	06-03 14:23
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	-100	$-16	12¢	$-12	+$4	06-03 14:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$183	889	1,293	-404	open	—	06-22 15:24
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	2	$80	274	0	+274	open	—	06-22 15:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$80	174	0	+174	open	—	06-22 15:24
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	2	$67	49	49	+0	Yes	+$7	05-11 16:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$50	156	0	+156	Yes	+$106	05-01 13:05
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	2	$49	49	49	+0	open	—	05-12 13:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$40	333	0	+333	Yes	+$293	05-01 13:01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	1	$34	0	118	-118	open	—	06-04 12:50
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	1	$24	0	147	-147	open	—	06-03 14:23
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	1	$20	159	0	+159	open	—	06-22 15:25
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	1	$16	0	100	-100	open	—	06-03 14:23
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	3	$16	85	0	+85	open	—	05-28 15:21
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	1	$14	0	701	-701	open	—	06-03 14:23
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	1	$8	0	172	-172	open	—	06-03 14:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 15:25:16	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	159	13¢	$20	0x3962b8…
06-22 15:24:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	444	9¢	$40	0x86c247…
06-22 15:24:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	46¢	$40	0x48c6e2…
06-22 15:23:50	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0x83c32e…
06-09 07:10:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	46¢	$40	0x5248a1…
06-09 07:10:03	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	114	35¢	$40	0xbf789a…
06-09 07:09:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	444	9¢	$40	0x97ae5e…
06-04 12:50:37	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	118	29¢	$34	0xe3a85f…
06-04 12:50:36	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,293	8¢	$103	0x2035f7…
06-03 14:23:42	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	147	16¢	$24	0xca65a3…
06-03 14:23:27	Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xda6762…
06-03 14:23:15	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	172	4¢	$8	0x0edcd1…
06-03 14:23:00	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	Yes	SELL	701	2¢	$14	0xcec86e…
05-28 15:21:09	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0xa8d33b…
05-12 13:42:41	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xa1e68b…
05-12 13:39:38	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	Yes	SELL	49	60¢	$29	0x5045e0…
05-11 16:08:16	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	SELL	49	75¢	$37	0x7b978a…
05-09 14:18:20	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xd9440f…
05-09 14:18:15	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	Yes	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0xf77b3e…
05-09 14:18:08	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0xf5233c…
05-01 13:05:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x1110a3…
05-01 13:01:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	12¢	$40	0xe1a572…