Realized P&L (7d)
+$196
Unrealized P&L
+$7.91K
Hit rate
40.6%
Resolved (7d)
11
Trades (7d)
422
34,553 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$41.9K
$4.19M lifetime
Avg / trade
$121
Open exposure
$95.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-14 04:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 251 days
Categories
Politics
69%
49%
+$17,920
Other
30%
37%
+$7,769
Sports
1%
44%
+$626
Tech
0%
31%
-$102
Crypto
0%
42%
+$271
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 456 trades/day
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 425 | $184.0K | 123,720 | 109,983 | +13,737 | No | +$2,986 | 03-31 22:21 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 333 | $155.0K | 92,072 | 92,471 | -400 | No | +$1,021 | 04-30 10:09 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 440 | $103.3K | 70,446 | 72,400 | -1,953 | Yes | +$631 | 04-05 04:05 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 258 | $91.6K | 90,090 | 90,090 | +0 | Yes | +$343 | 10-26 00:05 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 80 | $82.0K | 54,466 | 38,866 | +15,600 | open | — | 11-04 11:20 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 350 | $80.7K | 64,704 | 66,314 | -1,611 | No | -$1,329 | 04-30 20:26 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 317 | $76.9K | 71,154 | 60,713 | +10,441 | No | -$521 | 04-24 20:42 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 168 | $73.5K | 75,553 | 50,839 | +24,713 | No | +$2,003 | 10-26 00:01 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 178 | $61.8K | 45,473 | 42,870 | +2,603 | No | +$546 | 04-02 00:17 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 529 | $60.1K | 123,725 | 74,293 | +49,432 | No | +$2,052 | 10-31 19:46 |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 47 | $59.7K | 49,183 | 43,734 | +5,450 | No | +$539 | 09-10 02:54 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 212 | $58.8K | 50,718 | 55,476 | -4,758 | open | — | 11-12 20:33 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 604 | $57.5K | 78,689 | 80,574 | -1,886 | No | +$2,657 | 05-31 17:46 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 303 | $54.8K | 80,963 | 35,141 | +45,822 | open | — | 11-12 19:04 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | 49 | $53.0K | 33,214 | 25,215 | +8,000 | No | +$492 | 09-16 00:08 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026 | 428 | $51.0K | 78,862 | 79,662 | -800 | No | +$808 | 04-21 20:01 |
| us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045 | 395 | $49.8K | 68,275 | 44,417 | +23,858 | Yes | +$486 | 08-12 15:14 |
| Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? | 28 | $49.7K | 25,090 | 25,090 | +0 | Yes | +$285 | 06-30 00:22 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 30 | $48.4K | 24,200 | 25,800 | -1,600 | No | +$582 | 03-19 21:48 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026 | 217 | $47.7K | 37,806 | 32,332 | +5,474 | No | -$1,295 | 04-15 22:29 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 60 | $44.8K | 25,325 | 26,325 | -1,000 | Yes | +$515 | 04-08 07:12 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 122 | $43.4K | 48,579 | 29,579 | +19,000 | open | — | 10-23 07:22 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 49 | $43.1K | 24,573 | 24,559 | +15 | Yes | +$327 | 09-20 22:54 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 131 | $42.1K | 51,530 | 58,553 | -7,023 | Yes | -$4,660 | 02-28 21:39 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | 292 | $41.4K | 31,917 | 32,011 | -94 | No | +$344 | 05-09 01:51 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 53 | $40.2K | 18,664 | 24,238 | -5,574 | Yes | -$720 | 02-18 16:35 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | 281 | $39.0K | 31,274 | 30,640 | +634 | No | +$1,208 | 06-01 06:06 |
| israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149 | 138 | $38.8K | 24,204 | 24,203 | +0 | Yes | +$111 | 08-03 12:11 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 122 | $38.8K | 42,691 | 32,494 | +10,197 | No | +$252 | 02-13 17:27 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 89 | $36.7K | 30,423 | 16,066 | +14,357 | open | — | 05-27 18:56 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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