Satisfied-Crawdad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$562

Unrealized P&L

-$208

Hit rate

74.8%

Resolved

Trades

428

lifetime

Volume

$57.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$133

Open exposure

$531

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-20 13:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

68% 36% +$2,770

Politics

29% 46% -$1,848

Crypto

2% 60% +$124

Sports

1% 0% -$378

Tech

0% 0% -$106

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	+2,000	$290	16¢	$317	+$27	10-20 13:46
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+860	$108	15¢	$129	+$22	10-13 20:35
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+10,000	$343	1¢	$85	-$258	10-02 15:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	19	$11.3K	15,243	15,243	+0	open	—	10-02 15:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	16	$8.6K	6,573	6,573	+0	No	+$1,758	07-08 14:08
Kash Patel out by June 30?	27	$5.5K	2,780	3,969	-1,189	No	+$701	06-21 13:23
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	16	$4.9K	3,209	3,209	+0	No	+$1,065	07-06 08:56
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	7	$2.5K	2,595	0	+2,595	Argentina	+$119	07-15 20:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	24	$2.4K	4,829	4,829	+0	Yes	-$831	06-14 22:44
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$2.2K	1,446	1,446	+0	open	—	08-20 14:15
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-28 14:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	9	$1.4K	2,838	2,838	+0	No	-$168	03-26 17:04
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	4	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$110	07-09 14:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	9	$1.2K	990	990	+0	Yes	+$91	06-16 10:29
will gabriel attal advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	2	$1.1K	620	620	+0	open	—	07-29 15:03
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$1.1K	650	650	+0	Yes	+$26	04-03 21:06
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	6	$1.0K	650	1,418	-768	Yes	+$203	01-30 00:39
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	10	$955	2,410	3,410	-1,000	Yes	-$302	04-05 10:00
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	10	$868	4,009	2,009	+2,000	open	—	10-20 13:46
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	20	$728	1,248	1,248	+0	No	-$135	01-23 15:34
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$602	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	10-02 15:06
Kash Patel out by April 30?	4	$470	319	219	+100	No	+$58	04-29 16:09
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	2	$408	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$402	07-14 20:50
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$396	495	495	+0	open	—	10-10 14:21
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$381	1,300	1,300	+0	No	-$378	07-19 23:07
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$376	275	275	+0	Yes	-$15	06-03 21:18
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	3	$374	1,600	1,600	+0	Spain	-$310	07-14 20:49
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$361	3,258	258	+3,000	No	+$113	06-03 22:12
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	12	$343	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	10-02 15:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$342	285	285	+0	Yes	-$6	06-05 14:06
Kash Patel out by May 31?	3	$298	80	280	-200	No	-$22	05-03 10:42
Kash Patel out by December 31?	4	$273	356	356	+0	open	—	06-05 14:06
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	6	$212	500	500	+0	Yes	-$28	01-30 00:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 13:47:03	Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	220	11¢	$24	0x1c7d8b…
10-20 13:46:57	Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	193	10¢	$20	0xf19995…
10-20 13:46:51	Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x591add…
10-20 13:46:45	Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	71	10¢	$7	0xe4bd7e…
10-20 13:46:39	Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	10¢	$6	0x3af439…
10-20 13:46:35	Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	431	9¢	$40	0x2bf3e1…
10-20 13:46:20	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,009	14¢	$289	0x4426ed…
10-20 13:35:51	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,651	14¢	$384	0xf47f80…
10-20 12:03:03	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	581	15¢	$85	0x651894…
10-14 10:36:59	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x725b8b…
10-14 10:36:52	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xad7927…
10-14 10:36:46	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd1ade9…
10-14 07:06:07	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x56015c…
10-13 20:36:54	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	55	15¢	$8	0xdb6603…
10-13 20:35:58	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	859	12¢	$107	0xbb5f12…
10-13 20:35:58	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x099102…
10-10 14:43:55	Will Trump say "Depression" during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?	No	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x10928d…
10-10 14:36:13	Will Trump say "Depression" during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x80f884…
10-10 14:34:24	Will Trump say "Depression" during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x89665c…
10-10 14:34:19	Will Trump say "Depression" during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x91fd24…
10-10 14:34:09	Will Trump say "Depression" during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?	No	BUY	31	19¢	$6	0x78b018…
10-10 14:26:16	Will Trump say "Depression" during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?	No	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xbc37f7…
10-10 14:23:57	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Tennessee?	Yes	BUY	993	15¢	$150	0x0943f6…
10-10 14:21:58	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	495	39¢	$193	0x2bd370…
10-04 13:43:11	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	44	13¢	$6	0x7270ef…
10-04 13:42:35	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	270	13¢	$35	0xdee4ba…
10-02 15:30:09	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	495	41¢	$203	0x431d49…
10-02 15:29:30	Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	SELL	565	9¢	$49	0x83927a…
10-02 15:29:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0x9d4bc3…
10-02 15:09:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x2cf4eb…
10-02 15:08:42	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	240	2¢	$6	0x1b09eb…
10-02 15:08:26	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	436	2¢	$10	0x3b0b95…
10-02 15:08:18	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,516	2¢	$33	0x30b23a…
10-02 15:07:59	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,548	2¢	$32	0x746bd2…
10-02 15:07:35	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	520	1¢	$4	0xbbc773…
10-02 15:06:57	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,400	19¢	$266	0xa2f2c1…
08-20 14:15:25	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,446	77¢	$1,115	0xbc4645…
08-09 21:15:19	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,446	77¢	$1,109	0x6da45c…
08-09 21:14:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,213	48¢	$1,063	0x1446ce…
08-04 15:37:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,213	63¢	$1,400	0xf632db…
08-04 15:36:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	3,928	37¢	$1,453	0xa1f36d…
08-02 15:56:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,200	43¢	$516	0x10368f…
08-01 15:38:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	372	53¢	$197	0xc6037e…
08-01 09:39:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	3,100	53¢	$1,643	0x22e656…
08-01 09:39:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,500	47¢	$1,645	0x04d355…
07-29 15:22:53	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5331c8…
07-29 15:22:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x03dd40…
07-29 15:03:24	will gabriel attal advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	SELL	620	87¢	$539	0x62f31e…
07-28 14:35:10	will marine le pen advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x84ec4a…
07-28 14:34:47	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	120	68¢	$81	0x780a63…
07-28 14:34:08	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xac8ad1…
07-28 14:33:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	30	44¢	$13	0x23f797…
07-25 20:33:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3,500	56¢	$1,960	0x1ad3e4…
07-19 23:07:55	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,300	0¢	$1	0x7bdac7…
07-19 22:13:22	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x7f3f52…
07-19 21:53:54	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x635d92…
07-19 21:51:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x33da09…
07-19 21:44:48	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0xdd2a55…
07-19 21:16:40	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	356	29¢	$104	0xdd82ca…
07-19 21:16:39	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	44	29¢	$13	0xacb28e…
07-19 21:13:46	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x58c128…
07-19 20:26:55	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	188	28¢	$53	0xbe4af4…
07-19 20:26:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	62	28¢	$17	0xae511e…
07-19 20:24:57	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	208	27¢	$56	0x7cecf1…
07-19 20:24:25	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x6f18aa…
07-19 20:23:52	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	28	27¢	$8	0x363935…
07-19 20:22:52	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	600	40¢	$241	0x4322b8…
07-15 20:57:53	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals jude bellingham gte1	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x960dc2…
07-15 20:57:11	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	188	3¢	$7	0xf54379…
07-15 20:55:07	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	537	96¢	$512	0xe2f835…
07-15 20:55:07	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x0218e1…
07-15 20:55:05	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	1,055	96¢	$1,008	0xf1cf4a…
07-15 20:55:05	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	43	96¢	$41	0x9c3d75…
07-15 20:55:05	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0x935f16…
07-15 20:55:05	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x6f6395…
07-15 20:55:05	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	869	95¢	$828	0x43acd5…
07-15 19:52:20	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals jude bellingham gte1	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xe8c206…
07-15 19:51:44	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	74	25¢	$19	0x9dcda6…
07-15 19:51:35	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0xfb06f5…
07-15 19:51:17	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	320	25¢	$80	0x377431…
07-14 20:50:10	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0xe8dd87…
07-14 20:49:53	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	SELL	1,600	2¢	$32	0x56245a…
07-14 20:23:55	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	900	9¢	$83	0x197345…
07-14 19:23:05	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	700	37¢	$259	0x2c3ffa…
07-14 13:27:25	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?	Yes	BUY	300	7¢	$21	0x33a953…
07-14 13:27:13	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?	Yes	BUY	250	11¢	$28	0xec97c1…
07-14 13:26:46	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	1,000	40¢	$405	0x2e7316…
07-13 17:08:01	will marine le pen advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	550	21¢	$116	0xa4e2c3…
07-13 17:07:56	will marine le pen advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x306dd1…
07-13 17:07:38	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	880	71¢	$625	0x8aeb0c…
07-13 17:00:50	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,177	4¢	$87	0xe948ee…
07-13 17:00:41	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	980	4¢	$38	0x658a97…
07-09 21:36:41	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	37	12¢	$4	0x407ada…
07-09 21:36:34	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0x91cc5a…
07-09 21:36:32	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	79	12¢	$10	0xae4e81…
07-09 21:36:11	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	114	12¢	$14	0x2a5f4a…
07-09 21:35:49	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0xc65749…
07-09 21:35:35	Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	44	12¢	$5	0x9432fc…
07-09 14:30:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	623	70¢	$436	0x47a0d6…
07-09 13:57:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x0b6706…