Fortunate-Document — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18.9K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.1%

Resolved

Trades

4,655

lifetime

Volume

$883.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$190

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-13 01:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

44% 0% $-18,855

Crypto

31% — —

Other

25% 0% $-55

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	274	$52.4K	89,327	82,145	+7,181	open	—	01-29 23:03
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	13	$48.8K	25,000	30,000	-5,000	open	—	07-03 18:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	56	$45.7K	25,052	22,500	+2,552	open	—	04-29 08:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$29.4K	25,000	5,000	+20,000	open	—	04-29 23:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	102	$26.7K	16,456	15,804	+653	open	—	04-07 23:09
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	133	$23.7K	31,444	19,402	+12,042	open	—	04-07 22:55
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	72	$20.6K	26,425	23,375	+3,050	open	—	03-06 08:01
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	213	$19.5K	25,078	25,609	-530	open	—	04-30 02:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$18.8K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	$-18,760	05-04 18:48
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	9	$15.4K	8,046	8,046	+0	open	—	03-02 09:59
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	5	$13.4K	8,994	4,994	+4,000	open	—	03-05 14:31
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	66	$13.2K	19,482	10,583	+8,899	open	—	03-24 19:20
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	38	$13.2K	7,500	7,500	+0	open	—	07-09 19:44
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?	61	$12.7K	8,054	7,554	+500	open	—	03-27 21:19
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	40	$12.7K	8,644	8,644	+0	open	—	02-13 01:10
iran closes its airspace by june 8	73	$12.5K	10,921	7,221	+3,700	open	—	06-08 01:06
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	93	$12.4K	9,733	12,312	-2,579	open	—	03-22 22:14
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	25	$12.2K	12,616	0	+12,616	open	—	05-08 07:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	126	$12.1K	14,942	14,942	+0	open	—	04-07 22:38
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	9	$11.6K	5,500	7,500	-2,000	open	—	07-28 22:06
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?	54	$11.1K	8,594	18,000	-9,406	open	—	03-31 12:18
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	79	$10.5K	9,643	14,514	-4,871	open	—	02-24 10:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	47	$10.2K	6,851	6,851	+0	open	—	05-06 16:57
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	21	$9.7K	6,999	6,000	+999	open	—	04-07 23:13
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	20	$9.1K	5,166	5,166	+0	open	—	03-27 10:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	8	$9.0K	7,571	7,571	+0	open	—	05-06 21:39
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	62	$8.8K	10,985	10,378	+607	open	—	02-18 23:18
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	58	$8.6K	9,286	0	+9,286	open	—	07-04 23:04
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$8.5K	0	8,888	-8,888	open	—	06-11 21:27
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	43	$8.4K	13,830	3,650	+10,180	open	—	03-29 22:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 01:44:16	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xa8bfcb…
08-11 23:20:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x89da63…
08-11 23:15:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	88	97¢	$85	0xf3cd61…
08-10 22:24:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x03c720…
08-10 20:57:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	600	75¢	$450	0x4fcacb…
08-10 10:39:51	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	200	94¢	$189	0x95cca3…
08-10 08:27:12	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	394	94¢	$372	0x264221…
08-10 08:25:36	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	1,274	94¢	$1,201	0xc08a56…
08-10 08:20:40	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	1,459	95¢	$1,389	0x6b4712…
08-10 07:30:39	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	1,386	95¢	$1,320	0x8b4325…
08-10 00:23:01	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	155	95¢	$148	0xd01a46…
08-09 22:20:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	600	90¢	$540	0x3d96cd…
08-09 21:43:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	55	86¢	$47	0xf40cb5…
08-09 21:41:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0xa59b5d…
08-09 21:39:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	545	89¢	$485	0xc1680d…
08-09 01:13:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xd8b104…
08-09 01:09:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	499	86¢	$429	0xff002b…
08-09 01:01:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x44e9a6…
08-08 22:40:24	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	1,500	95¢	$1,420	0x8fced7…
08-08 11:59:30	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x4db862…
08-07 07:05:58	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	SELL	577	88¢	$508	0x02c266…
08-07 07:03:40	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	SELL	423	88¢	$372	0x8db94c…
08-05 02:47:32	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	164	94¢	$155	0x34e224…
08-04 05:28:35	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	85	94¢	$80	0x28f1de…
08-04 04:31:53	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	161	94¢	$152	0xe96ba4…
08-04 03:08:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	800	78¢	$624	0xa6b67d…
08-02 06:57:00	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	BUY	944	82¢	$774	0xc58c38…
08-02 02:30:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,500	80¢	$2,000	0x839d5b…
08-01 15:27:09	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0xa46e9c…
08-01 15:27:06	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x33a4db…
08-01 15:17:21	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	500	81¢	$405	0x4253ec…
08-01 10:33:45	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	245	78¢	$191	0xdbe802…
08-01 07:36:11	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	BUY	56	82¢	$46	0x718998…
08-01 00:50:35	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xa8954e…
08-01 00:11:03	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xd0abdf…
08-01 00:11:02	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x6e6cf9…
07-31 19:56:06	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x96385f…
07-31 15:53:47	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x06b59b…
07-31 15:49:39	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	198	80¢	$159	0xa41292…
07-31 11:55:17	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	71	90¢	$64	0xf22a32…
07-31 11:32:02	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	47	84¢	$39	0x54b82e…
07-31 08:21:56	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	90	78¢	$70	0x4757ab…
07-31 01:01:03	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	723	14¢	$104	0x8255e8…
07-30 15:09:11	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	87	58¢	$50	0xd3529e…
07-30 15:06:05	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	61	71¢	$43	0xfce6b6…
07-30 14:38:09	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	119	17¢	$20	0x39d783…
07-30 14:36:59	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xa25df6…
07-30 14:31:00	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	381	19¢	$72	0x0180a9…
07-30 14:27:41	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	500	12¢	$60	0xba6a96…
07-30 14:27:27	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	400	10¢	$40	0x8aa414…
07-30 14:26:12	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0x968282…
07-30 14:12:21	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	500	17¢	$85	0x7f7273…
07-30 13:59:18	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	46	58¢	$27	0x6ed4ff…
07-30 13:47:21	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0xe0029e…
07-30 13:44:35	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	145	75¢	$109	0xcab4a2…
07-30 13:42:57	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	500	18¢	$90	0x5ae3d3…
07-30 13:18:08	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	324	67¢	$217	0x5e35b5…
07-30 12:01:18	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,000	5¢	$51	0xd5b026…
07-30 12:00:56	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	175	23¢	$41	0x6625f0…
07-30 11:20:00	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	219	75¢	$164	0xc52efb…
07-30 07:58:33	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0x789e5c…
07-30 07:13:14	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	17	58¢	$10	0x1cfad5…
07-29 20:58:38	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	172	58¢	$100	0x6b254e…
07-29 17:16:54	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	172	58¢	$100	0x4bc207…
07-28 22:06:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	91¢	$453	0x523bcb…
07-28 13:35:05	Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x5afeda…
07-27 16:20:31	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0x2892da…
07-27 16:20:28	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0xe451fc…
07-27 16:20:25	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x1f44cd…
07-27 16:20:22	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0x4b026a…
07-27 16:20:18	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x878d0d…
07-27 16:20:13	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0x602bf5…
07-27 16:20:10	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x08b18b…
07-27 16:20:06	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0xcd21d3…
07-27 16:11:36	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	140	84¢	$118	0x5e3210…
07-27 16:11:31	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x0d307c…
07-27 16:11:28	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0x17fa7e…
07-27 16:11:27	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	500	82¢	$410	0x18fb18…
07-27 12:01:16	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	69	20¢	$14	0xed5aa5…
07-27 12:01:07	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	931	20¢	$186	0x7ba6a4…
07-27 11:58:43	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	295	16¢	$47	0xbefcb9…
07-27 10:12:15	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	156	16¢	$25	0x4284c7…
07-27 10:03:15	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	156	16¢	$25	0x61eb96…
07-26 14:35:55	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	52	16¢	$8	0x2f7ce0…
07-26 01:45:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	92¢	$1,372	0x5e28c6…
07-25 19:17:04	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	230	16¢	$37	0xc23c79…
07-25 10:22:04	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	18	16¢	$3	0x7ceb13…
07-24 05:47:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,500	91¢	$3,171	0x8ec7fc…
07-24 05:44:04	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x641d61…
07-23 09:33:21	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0xb58e67…
07-23 00:23:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	86¢	$1,290	0x809f05…
07-21 07:58:45	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	26	19¢	$5	0x9d4218…
07-20 18:13:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	88¢	$883	0x11bb15…
07-20 12:39:13	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0xba63ae…
07-20 10:23:36	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0xb6139b…
07-19 20:17:49	Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0xbf793a…
07-19 13:09:45	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	500	29¢	$144	0xbbad0f…
07-19 13:09:13	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	400	28¢	$112	0xfa2aa7…
07-18 19:59:27	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x903418…
07-18 19:59:07	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xab42d6…