Those-Plantation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$534

Unrealized P&L

-$184

Hit rate

89.5%

Resolved

130

Trades

1,849

lifetime

Volume

$109.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

$28.8K

7 positions

First seen

2026-02-02

last 10-03 03:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 47% -$1,364

Other

25% 81% +$59

Politics

6% 52% +$771

Sports

0% 50% -$1

Tech

0% 50% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-26,713	-$25,378	97¢	$-25805	-$427	07-20 18:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,900	$2,523	98¢	$2.8K	+$323	07-30 14:47
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,000	$240	16¢	$158	-$81	05-24 00:27
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	$0	07-03 07:29
michael saylor federally charged by december 31 2026 20260625210239195	No	+10	$9	97¢	$10	+$1	07-03 07:30
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	+10	$9	96¢	$10	+$0	07-03 07:31
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-100	-$2	2¢	$-2	+$1	08-20 01:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?	1	$36.9K	36,948	0	+36,948	No	+$37	07-29 01:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$25.4K	0	26,713	-26,713	open	—	07-20 18:21
bitcoin up or down on february 12	9	$18.4K	21,940	0	+21,940	Down	+$1,549	02-12 17:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$2.5K	2,900	0	+2,900	open	—	07-30 14:47
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?	8	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$145	02-12 07:07
bitcoin above 70k on february 10	26	$1.9K	3,534	0	+3,534	No	+$1,684	02-10 05:10
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$1.8K	0	9,000	-9,000	Yes	+$1,789	06-15 04:11
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?	33	$1.7K	7,074	0	+7,074	Yes	-$1,726	02-12 08:48
bitcoin above 68k on february 11	43	$1.7K	6,000	0	+6,000	No	-$1,700	02-11 14:40
will the price of bitcoin be less than 74000 on february 6	32	$1.4K	129,894	129,894	-0	Yes	+$2	02-06 20:16
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch?	7	$994	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$6	02-11 10:50
Espresso FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$974	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$26	02-11 05:10
trump out as president by march 31	1	$973	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$27	02-19 13:20
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?	3	$940	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$60	02-11 04:47
Over $5M committed to the Fabric public sale?	1	$812	813	0	+813	No	+$1	02-02 12:00
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$760	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$240	02-11 08:53
Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$656	665	0	+665	No	+$9	02-11 05:06
bitcoin up or down on february 13	25	$640	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	-$640	02-13 10:18
bitcoin up or down on february 17	13	$514	700	600	+100	Down	+$62	02-17 16:14
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$496	507	0	+507	No	+$11	02-12 08:15
will bitcoin reach 79k on april 17	1	$398	400	0	+400	No	+$2	04-18 02:32
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	37	$314	292,723	10,865	+281,858	No	-$271	02-06 04:54
ethereum up or down on february 13	17	$310	2,000	0	+2,000	Up	-$310	02-13 10:19
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	105	$306	200,000	99,063	+100,937	No	-$94	02-08 06:58
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	11	$300	100,000	200,000	-100,000	No	+$100	02-11 03:15
bitcoin above 74k on february 6	74	$300	150,000	150,000	+0	No	$0	02-06 19:22
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	41	$299	119,730	178,911	-59,181	No	+$59	02-09 09:20
bitcoin up or down on february 5	51	$281	52,303	31,395	+20,908	Down	-$19	02-05 19:39
will the price of bitcoin be less than 76000 on february 5	43	$274	158,416	115,291	+43,125	Yes	-$43	02-05 16:34
Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?	10	$269	842	0	+842	Yes	-$169	02-13 06:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-03 03:20:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 3?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd799de…
10-03 03:20:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 3?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x915d49…
09-23 00:46:32	Will Jumper launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x97f44a…
09-18 02:21:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3d64fb…
09-15 03:13:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x618411…
09-03 04:23:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x946a1b…
08-20 01:57:28	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x04dd23…
08-20 01:53:39	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xfc031d…
07-30 14:47:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,900	87¢	$2,523	0x40ff28…
07-29 01:53:45	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?	No	BUY	36,948	100¢	$36,911	0x3d0f1d…
07-20 18:21:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	26,713	95¢	$25,378	0x0beeec…
07-03 07:38:08	squid fdv above 600m one day after launch 236	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x46fb0f…
07-03 07:31:43	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xdc3a05…
07-03 07:30:53	michael saylor federally charged by december 31 2026 20260625210239195	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x728d56…
07-03 07:29:59	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc6c8a1…
07-03 07:29:34	Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd0bc27…
07-03 07:28:55	over 20m committed to the laso finance public sale 697 196 698 668	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x291316…
07-02 04:54:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x918b65…
06-22 03:46:22	Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xbb838e…
06-15 04:11:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	6,500	0¢	$20	0x64ab3c…
06-05 03:40:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x46641a…
06-05 03:38:30	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x303567…
05-25 12:04:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc66774…
05-24 00:27:01	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	380	24¢	$91	0x45ef7d…
05-23 23:08:23	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xa8d3c0…
05-23 22:36:18	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x9e91ba…
05-23 21:42:40	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x2f05ed…
05-23 21:42:28	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x65d1f9…
05-23 21:21:33	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	398	24¢	$96	0x9b57eb…
05-22 21:51:03	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	143	24¢	$34	0xb95f2b…
05-19 04:53:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x03eb61…
05-19 04:52:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0xfad9f9…
05-19 04:52:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x865892…
05-16 07:13:42	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x1631ee…
05-16 04:54:15	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x2520bd…
05-16 03:12:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x6fed88…
05-16 02:23:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x98e3a0…
05-16 02:15:34	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	2¢	$1	0xeed377…
05-16 02:07:31	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd29ad2…
05-13 12:37:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x258e81…
05-13 11:44:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	295	0¢	$1	0xd197d7…
05-09 03:36:37	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xd95271…
05-03 12:25:42	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x7bc84a…
05-03 11:54:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xbc3404…
05-02 16:03:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	1,401	71¢	$995	0xa73022…
05-02 12:20:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	367	71¢	$260	0xbbf749…
05-01 12:02:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0x6ae608…
05-01 11:44:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	226	71¢	$160	0xe652fb…
05-01 10:47:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	12	70¢	$8	0x9d59c9…
05-01 09:05:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd70b7d…
05-01 09:04:32	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x888307…
05-01 09:03:32	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	488	70¢	$342	0x111614…
04-22 02:06:30	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xf26053…
04-18 02:32:10	will bitcoin reach 79k on april 17	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x22101b…
04-18 02:22:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xb45757…
04-01 04:06:43	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x9acbc9…
03-18 08:47:45	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xb0eee5…
03-13 02:43:33	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xaa99e5…
03-09 03:19:47	will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x7a0a76…
02-26 11:52:50	will zachxbt release his investigation on february 26	No	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0xe57011…
02-23 15:34:22	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	90	20¢	$18	0xe0dd98…
02-23 09:27:36	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xcf42a3…
02-23 03:03:44	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xec38c4…
02-19 23:07:48	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0xee7e75…
02-19 23:07:48	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xbc01fe…
02-19 23:07:48	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x811dfe…
02-19 23:07:48	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x3a3bc3…
02-19 23:07:48	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x0c54c7…
02-19 15:03:10	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xc6202d…
02-19 13:20:38	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$973	0x650d6d…
02-19 12:24:36	Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	No	BUY	195	93¢	$181	0xf76750…
02-18 13:26:46	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x3b2a74…
02-18 11:07:44	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x3f2c26…
02-18 11:07:42	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0x0e67af…
02-18 11:01:04	bitcoin above 68k on february 18	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x5d5735…
02-18 06:19:46	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xe922c8…
02-17 19:31:55	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	149	7¢	$10	0x3c60d3…
02-17 19:30:19	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	571	7¢	$40	0x8b51bc…
02-17 19:26:43	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	21	7¢	$1	0xb8f1d8…
02-17 19:26:33	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	21	7¢	$1	0xae2b8a…
02-17 19:26:09	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	237	7¢	$17	0xf4d0eb…
02-17 19:03:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xb982c9…
02-17 16:42:25	Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xa12d4f…
02-17 16:14:27	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xbffd81…
02-17 16:05:57	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	SELL	17	48¢	$8	0xe90106…
02-17 16:05:57	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	SELL	30	48¢	$14	0x53e36f…
02-17 16:05:57	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	SELL	220	48¢	$106	0x3af392…
02-17 16:05:57	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	SELL	312	48¢	$150	0x36b7f0…
02-17 16:05:57	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	SELL	21	48¢	$10	0x089fe2…
02-17 16:04:07	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	35	32¢	$11	0xe03c0c…
02-17 16:04:07	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	353	32¢	$113	0x369232…
02-17 16:04:05	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0x82cfb4…
02-17 16:04:05	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	28	32¢	$9	0x2f79da…
02-17 16:04:05	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	13	32¢	$4	0x2da4fd…
02-17 16:03:59	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	60	32¢	$19	0xa678cb…
02-17 16:03:41	bitcoin up or down on february 17	Up	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x1a0c23…
02-17 14:02:19	elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 40 64	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xd49660…
02-17 13:32:17	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x1485cc…
02-17 13:24:51	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x8e219a…
02-17 13:04:03	Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xdd7190…