Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$29

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

56.6%

Resolved

199

Trades

212

lifetime

Volume

$328

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-07-21

last 11-12 15:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

87% 55% +$21

Politics

11% 67% +$11

Tech

2% 25% -$2

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	+3	$1	98¢	$3	+$2	11-11 15:12
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	52¢	$1	+$0	11-12 15:15
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	No	+2	$1	61¢	$1	+$0	11-09 19:02
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	+1	$1	78¢	$1	$0	11-10 15:04
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	No	+1	$1	72¢	$1	$0	11-12 07:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 15:15:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xf7d100…
11-12 07:14:39	Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x4bd5ed…
11-11 23:14:30	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa9d6f1…
11-11 15:12:12	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5ff66b…
11-11 07:06:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 11?	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7a571c…
11-10 23:05:52	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x0a1546…
11-10 15:04:12	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x32efe7…
11-09 19:02:28	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xaa9214…
11-07 22:38:36	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xf08b35…
11-07 01:53:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf6cda3…
11-05 14:37:39	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x537899…
11-05 06:14:01	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf52412…
11-04 22:12:04	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0a52fe…
11-04 14:01:22	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe90633…
11-04 05:55:34	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xfa639a…
11-03 21:54:28	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x138832…
11-03 12:08:12	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xbb7459…
11-03 04:07:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe03d9f…
11-02 08:07:07	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 2?	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x7adfee…
11-02 00:06:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on November 2?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe11f45…
11-01 00:55:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x1183ac…
10-30 23:51:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xbe293f…
10-30 13:23:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x38186b…
10-30 03:04:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x4600f1…
10-28 18:44:53	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5b60b2…
10-28 10:44:38	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5dad56…
10-28 02:44:30	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x17be9e…
10-27 18:43:54	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc42dcd…
10-27 06:24:44	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xa6bf38…
10-26 22:24:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe6376c…
10-26 14:04:39	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $256 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x798ce2…
10-25 17:55:57	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xda6ff5…
10-25 09:55:06	Will Royal Caribbean (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x7c62b3…
10-25 01:55:02	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x85e38b…
10-24 13:40:06	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xd40003…
10-24 05:26:14	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe73aac…
10-23 19:04:53	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x31c0f9…
10-23 11:04:42	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1d582a…
10-23 11:04:41	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x26349c…
10-23 03:04:36	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x04b269…
10-21 18:56:54	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xc1c90e…
10-21 10:48:51	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf2f18c…
10-21 02:48:20	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9ec8b1…
10-19 18:47:41	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7888ec…
10-19 10:47:21	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6ed136…
10-18 14:05:17	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x434638…
10-18 06:04:24	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb4a92e…
10-17 07:03:17	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 22 2026	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x3c003b…
10-16 21:48:17	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xfaab32…
10-16 12:13:27	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe35587…
10-16 04:09:31	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xcba2e4…
10-15 19:18:52	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x119c2c…
10-15 09:38:56	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15?	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x98769f…
10-15 08:48:46	spx up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x41023e…
10-15 00:39:41	will the tesla roadster fly for 1s	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x633895…
10-14 04:37:44	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x469eac…
10-13 20:27:25	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x64b2af…
10-11 11:48:16	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc085bc…
10-11 03:00:30	Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x4771a9…
10-10 04:41:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x91832d…
10-10 04:25:37	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xb55808…
10-09 17:51:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x050b60…
10-09 09:45:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x52e89c…
10-09 09:38:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x802171…
10-09 09:34:36	Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8abe40…
10-09 00:26:23	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x902382…
10-08 15:46:06	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xae2ed4…
10-08 07:13:56	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x5cc2ec…
10-07 23:13:05	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x853e22…
10-07 14:33:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x685ffa…
10-07 06:31:47	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x80fe5a…
10-06 22:31:42	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xaaabda…
10-06 14:31:26	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x78c09e…
10-06 06:31:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7764e2…
10-05 22:30:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x30cc1c…
10-05 14:30:28	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x112e3a…
10-04 23:28:17	will mu dip to 1020 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x196493…
10-04 19:58:07	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x6bfacc…
10-04 10:52:47	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xf2c69d…
10-03 23:48:04	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe242e5…
10-03 13:35:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x1c7264…
10-03 05:21:47	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x46856e…
10-02 20:44:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xa3f64a…
10-02 12:15:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xf30643…
10-02 03:38:14	spy up or down on october 2 2026	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6d9579…
10-01 18:30:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x19d2d1…
10-01 10:25:00	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x49f37d…
10-01 02:20:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x3c743c…
09-30 18:13:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x63b66c…
09-30 10:09:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd18151…
09-30 02:08:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x996f02…
09-29 05:04:24	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xdedde8…
09-28 20:30:51	Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x02f546…
09-28 12:30:38	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5adc15…
09-28 04:29:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe82859…
09-27 19:50:02	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x230bef…
09-27 10:15:59	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x2685a4…
09-27 01:49:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xff2a94…
09-26 16:11:51	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x6862d0…
09-26 07:40:29	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x17cad1…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 21?	1	$10	12	+12	Up	+$2	07-21 13:07
spx up or down on july 22 2026	1	$3	12	+12	Down	-$3	07-22 13:09
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-25 01:13
sono quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt2	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-27 17:48
will spy dip to 740 by july 20 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	07-23 01:10
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	-$2	09-20 07:03
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-04 20:10
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	09-09 08:38
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	-$2	08-20 14:07
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-15 18:42
will warsh say inflation 20 times during september press conference 20260909	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	09-16 04:04
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	Yes	+$8	09-20 17:50
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	08-22 02:57
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-16 12:50
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-22 03:10
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-17 13:25
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-08 13:34
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-16 20:50
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $710 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-23 00:11
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-07 13:21
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	09-13 00:12
Will John Ternus say "Hardware" during his Apple Keynote?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-09 16:38
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-25 03:08
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-17 04:55
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-07 20:17
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-04 12:09
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-13 09:27
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	09-21 19:10
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-19 06:49
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	09-12 06:51