(anonymous) 0xa25ec8…2b2dd7
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Realized P&L (7d)
+$57
Unrealized P&L
+$35
Hit rate
73.2%
Resolved (7d)
49
Trades (7d)
156
2,014 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$486
$7.29K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$223
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-14
last 10-31 15:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 97 days
Categories
Other
84% 33% -$702
Politics
15% 51% +$74
Tech
1% 100% +$4
Crypto
0% 50% +$0
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +53 $15 28¢ $15 +$0 10-24 11:46
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes +14 $10 100¢ $14 +$4 10-02 15:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +15 $12 88¢ $13 +$1 10-02 15:37
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +38 $10 32¢ $12 +$2 10-28 21:14
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +38 $11 28¢ $10 -$1 10-31 00:37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +15 $6 56¢ $9 +$3 10-26 13:58
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 84¢ $9 +$1 10-02 15:37
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +125 $4 7¢ $8 +$4 09-27 19:07
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +10 $5 82¢ $8 +$3 10-27 20:02
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes +15 $6 52¢ $8 +$2 10-28 17:52
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No +10 $6 78¢ $8 +$2 10-18 22:31
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +10 $6 78¢ $8 +$2 10-18 09:15
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +25 $6 30¢ $7 +$2 10-12 14:48
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +21 $6 34¢ $7 +$1 10-29 16:22
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes +21 $6 32¢ $7 +$1 10-26 21:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +24 $6 28¢ $7 +$1 10-29 23:03
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +10 $6 64¢ $6 +$1 10-24 22:07
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +14 $5 46¢ $6 +$1 10-01 18:23
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +30 $6 19¢ $6 $0 10-24 06:59
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +10 $5 55¢ $5 +$0 10-29 17:48
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +24 $6 22¢ $5 -$1 10-30 22:45
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? No +16 $6 34¢ $5 -$1 10-17 01:56
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +5 $2 98¢ $5 +$3 09-27 18:39
US recession by end of 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 10-01 17:50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +18 $6 28¢ $5 -$1 10-20 02:32
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +5 $4 99¢ $5 +$1 10-07 12:01
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +5 $4 98¢ $5 +$1 10-14 18:40
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes +5 $4 95¢ $5 +$1 10-18 18:10
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 92¢ $5 +$1 10-05 17:11
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No +10 $5 46¢ $5 +$0 10-30 02:55