(anonymous) 0xa25ec8…2b2dd7 Create alert
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Realized P&L
-$588
Unrealized P&L
+$63
Hit rate
56.0%
Resolved
817
Trades
2,124
lifetime
Volume
$7.60K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$215
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-14
last 11-04 18:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 101 days
Categories
Other
81% 33% -$716
Politics
17% 50% +$123
Tech
1% 100% +$4
Crypto
0% 50% +$0
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
62 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +24 $6 92¢ $22 +$16 10-30 22:45
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes +14 $10 100¢ $14 +$4 10-02 15:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +15 $12 90¢ $13 +$1 10-02 15:37
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? No +13 $4 100¢ $13 +$9 11-02 18:25
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +125 $4 8¢ $10 +$6 09-27 19:07
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 88¢ $9 +$1 10-02 15:37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +15 $6 57¢ $9 +$3 10-26 13:58
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026? Yes +8 $2 100¢ $8 +$6 10-29 10:28
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +10 $5 79¢ $8 +$3 10-27 20:02
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +14 $5 44¢ $6 +$1 10-01 18:23
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +41 $2 14¢ $6 +$4 11-04 01:50
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +10 $5 56¢ $6 +$0 10-29 17:48
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +10 $6 56¢ $6 +$0 11-03 11:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +25 $6 22¢ $6 $0 11-04 18:42
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +25 $6 22¢ $6 +$0 10-12 14:48
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $6 55¢ $5 $0 11-03 15:40
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? Yes +10 $4 53¢ $5 +$1 11-01 17:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +24 $6 22¢ $5 -$1 10-29 23:03
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat? No +5 $2 99¢ $5 +$3 11-02 11:40
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat? No +5 $4 100¢ $5 +$1 10-24 05:07
US recession by end of 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 10-01 17:50
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +5 $2 98¢ $5 +$3 09-27 18:39
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +30 $6 17¢ $5 -$1 10-24 06:59
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes +5 $4 97¢ $5 +$1 10-18 18:10
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +5 $4 92¢ $5 +$0 10-24 22:03
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? No +16 $6 30¢ $5 -$1 10-17 01:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $4 44¢ $5 +$0 10-15 21:51
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +5 $4 91¢ $5 +$0 10-04 21:14
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +10 $4 46¢ $5 +$0 11-04 19:33
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +5 $4 90¢ $5 +$1 10-15 10:34