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Realized P&L (30d)
+$70
Unrealized P&L
+$41
Hit rate
66.3%
Resolved (30d)
116
Trades (30d)
573
2,072 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$1.71K
$7.43K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$232
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-14
last 11-02 17:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 99 days
Categories
Other
82% 33% -$704
Politics
16% 49% +$70
Tech
1% 100% +$4
Crypto
0% 50% +$0
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
62 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +38 $10 39¢ $15 +$5 10-28 21:14
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +53 $15 28¢ $15 $0 10-24 11:46
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes +14 $10 100¢ $14 +$4 10-02 15:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +15 $12 88¢ $13 +$1 10-02 15:37
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +38 $11 28¢ $10 -$1 10-31 00:37
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes +15 $6 62¢ $9 +$3 10-28 17:52
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +125 $4 7¢ $9 +$5 09-27 19:07
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 87¢ $9 +$1 10-02 15:37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +15 $6 56¢ $9 +$3 10-26 13:58
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +10 $5 84¢ $8 +$3 10-27 20:02
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes +21 $6 38¢ $8 +$2 10-26 21:00
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +21 $6 36¢ $8 +$2 10-29 16:22
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? No +10 $6 76¢ $8 +$2 10-18 22:31
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +10 $6 76¢ $8 +$2 10-18 09:15
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +24 $6 32¢ $8 +$2 10-30 22:45
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +10 $6 66¢ $7 +$1 10-24 22:07
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +14 $5 48¢ $6 +$2 10-01 18:23
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +25 $6 26¢ $6 +$1 10-12 14:48
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes +45 $6 14¢ $6 +$0 11-01 20:40
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +16 $6 38¢ $6 +$0 11-01 14:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +24 $6 24¢ $6 $0 10-29 23:03
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +30 $6 18¢ $5 -$1 10-24 06:59
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +10 $5 52¢ $5 $0 10-29 17:48
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? No +16 $6 34¢ $5 -$1 10-17 01:56
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +5 $2 99¢ $5 +$3 09-27 18:39
US recession by end of 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 10-01 17:50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +18 $6 28¢ $5 -$1 10-20 02:32
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes +5 $4 97¢ $5 +$1 10-18 18:10
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes +27 $4 18¢ $5 +$1 10-26 10:13
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +5 $4 91¢ $5 +$1 10-15 10:34