Witty-Birch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.58K

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

77.3%

Resolved

3,627

Trades

5,353

lifetime

Volume

$90.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$404

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 10-29 23:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 139 days

Categories

Other

72% 71% +$1,257

Crypto

22% 69% -$117

Politics

3% 43% -$26

Sports

2% 83% +$255

Tech

1% 71% +$213

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 271 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+172	$150	84¢	$146	-$4	10-29 09:09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+164	$100	41¢	$68	-$32	09-15 08:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+250	$50	26¢	$66	+$16	10-20 15:19
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+57	$50	94¢	$54	+$4	10-21 09:26
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	+43	$32	96¢	$41	+$9	09-05 03:12
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	+37	$30	80¢	$29	-$1	10-26 18:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	+0	-$4	100¢	$0	+$5	09-18 11:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	2	$2.4K	3,508	3,508	+0	open	—	09-27 05:59
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	8	$1.4K	753	753	+0	open	—	10-15 09:30
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	8	$1.2K	1,563	1,563	+0	open	—	09-27 05:59
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	10	$1.1K	1,359	605	+754	open	—	10-29 15:52
Will Micron (MU) beat quarterly earnings?	10	$1.0K	1,173	0	+1,173	Yes	+$130	09-20 10:41
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	2	$1.0K	608	608	+0	Yes	+$212	06-20 22:02
Samsun: Simona Waltert vs Himeno Sakatsume	6	$744	831	259	+572	Himeno Sakatsume	-$84	10-09 16:18
Will Muse be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	9	$634	1,259	0	+1,259	Yes	+$625	09-18 12:00
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	9	$629	400	400	+0	open	—	10-22 13:08
mktx quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 07 2026 1pt84	11	$609	754	0	+754	Yes	+$145	08-06 17:54
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	1	$605	720	0	+720	No	-$605	06-20 22:02
Will Greece win on 2026-09-27?	2	$600	682	0	+682	Yes	-$600	09-27 17:54
Will there be at least 20,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?	1	$576	636	0	+636	No	+$60	08-30 14:54
Will Cloudflare (NET) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$550	732	0	+732	open	—	10-27 12:34
Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?	2	$550	714	0	+714	open	—	10-13 08:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$536	605	0	+605	Yes	+$70	10-28 13:47
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	3	$525	722	0	+722	Yes	+$197	10-01 09:14
wta maneiro escorih 2026 10 14	5	$513	586	145	+441	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	-$46	10-14 14:51
Porto: Mina Hodzic vs Elena Malygina	1	$500	540	0	+540	Elena Malygina	+$40	09-22 12:52
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina	1	$500	521	0	+521	Daniil Medvedev	+$21	10-12 09:55
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$494	562	0	+562	Yes	+$67	09-16 10:05
Will SoFi (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	7	$476	666	0	+666	Yes	+$190	10-26 20:23
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	2	$450	502	0	+502	Yes	+$52	10-09 11:38
Palermo: Yanaki Milev vs Carlos Sanchez Jover	4	$450	490	0	+490	Yanaki Milev	+$40	10-09 16:12
Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	3	$416	245	245	+0	open	—	09-18 11:00
Will Serbia win on 2026-09-27?	1	$400	455	0	+455	No	+$55	09-27 16:13
wta shi fernand 2026 10 13	4	$400	536	0	+536	Leylah Fernandez	+$136	10-14 14:51
Samsun: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Carole Monnet	1	$400	420	0	+420	Lucrezia Stefanini	+$20	10-06 14:35
atp djere barton 2026 10 09	3	$383	438	0	+438	Laslo Djere	+$54	10-09 16:02
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	8	$382	400	399	+1	open	—	10-27 10:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 23:56:06	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x9e919c…
10-29 23:04:55	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	37	21¢	$8	0xe9d3ea…
10-29 23:01:55	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	63	40¢	$25	0xcd657f…
10-29 22:36:24	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0xb6e106…
10-29 22:36:19	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x4ae4be…
10-29 22:16:34	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x9e3285…
10-29 21:06:03	Will Frontdoor (FTDR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	121	63¢	$76	0x8f8a69…
10-29 21:02:42	Will Amazon say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during earnings call?	No	SELL	32	30¢	$10	0xd8b8ad…
10-29 20:43:54	Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 30+ times during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x0d4242…
10-29 20:43:48	Will Andy Burnham say "Defence" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x1b4072…
10-29 20:21:30	Will Trump say "Moon" in November?	Yes	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xf80589…
10-29 20:11:58	Will Trump say "Heritage" in November?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x13b92f…
10-29 20:11:52	Will Trump say "Greenland" in November?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x4f09c6…
10-29 20:11:51	Will Trump say "Shit" in November?	Yes	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0xfdd301…
10-29 20:11:46	Will Trump say "Front Row Joe" in November?	Yes	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0x5f6eb5…
10-29 19:53:19	Will Amazon say "Anthropic" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	26	84¢	$22	0x8053c2…
10-29 19:10:07	Will Piper Sandler (PIPR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xdbc172…
10-29 15:52:29	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xb75d67…
10-29 14:53:11	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0x082edf…
10-29 14:52:17	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	51	92¢	$47	0xded763…
10-29 14:52:17	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	12	92¢	$11	0x43eefd…
10-29 14:17:47	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	250	90¢	$225	0xda030b…
10-29 14:10:10	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	71	90¢	$64	0xe28027…
10-29 13:28:58	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	250	89¢	$222	0x13aba7…
10-29 10:59:11	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	250	84¢	$209	0x8b2dc9…
10-29 10:49:29	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xe8da88…
10-29 10:44:25	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xa9b049…
10-29 10:40:10	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	1,049	24¢	$250	0xab22fa…
10-29 09:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7590b1…
10-29 09:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0xe296ab…
10-29 09:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x93f2d4…
10-29 09:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	17	50¢	$8	0x7889bf…
10-29 09:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x4b5b05…
10-29 09:16:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x6485b6…
10-29 09:09:19	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	172	87¢	$150	0x80aae3…
10-29 09:03:14	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	19	72¢	$13	0x7ca994…
10-29 09:02:49	Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	45	90¢	$41	0x8a0224…
10-29 09:01:37	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	119	71¢	$84	0x4a457e…
10-29 08:47:08	Will Frontdoor (FTDR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	92	81¢	$75	0x2ad88b…
10-29 04:50:17	Will Amazon say "AWS" 20+ times during earnings call?	No	SELL	32	10¢	$3	0x9b8758…
10-29 04:01:34	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	42	70¢	$30	0xedffe7…
10-28 23:55:44	Will Piper Sandler (PIPR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x324024…
10-28 21:15:25	Will Amazon say "AWS" 20+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xf5c6cb…
10-28 21:13:31	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xf004f3…
10-28 21:13:31	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0x24bea3…
10-28 21:12:37	will amazon say anthropic during earnings call october 29	Yes	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x1d2773…
10-28 21:11:35	Will Amazon say "Live Sports" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x12e181…
10-28 20:29:13	will amazon say live sports during earnings call october 29	Yes	BUY	115	88¢	$101	0xff3c44…
10-28 20:15:49	will amazon say aws 20 times during earnings call october 29	No	BUY	32	15¢	$5	0xa4a0a2…
10-28 20:15:23	will amazon say ai artificial intelligence 10 times during earnings call october 29	No	BUY	32	15¢	$5	0x451932…
10-28 13:47:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xedbd3b…
10-28 12:49:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	277	95¢	$263	0x03e9ba…
10-28 11:35:52	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	No	SELL	91	51¢	$46	0xca1a4c…
10-28 11:34:32	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	No	SELL	97	52¢	$50	0xa39166…
10-28 11:34:01	Will Warsh say "Pressure" or "Stagflation" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	68	58¢	$40	0xba760d…
10-28 11:33:58	Will Warsh say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	57	69¢	$39	0xf1a456…
10-28 11:33:55	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x0313db…
10-28 11:33:52	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x59cc80…
10-28 11:32:16	Will CVS Health (CVS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	98	77¢	$76	0xe136f4…
10-28 11:32:14	Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	87	87¢	$76	0xca78fa…
10-28 11:30:28	Will Charles River Laboratories (CRL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	117	86¢	$101	0xc52039…
10-28 11:30:17	Will Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	187	81¢	$152	0x6da625…
10-28 11:30:16	Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	192	79¢	$152	0xe43b5a…
10-28 11:25:52	Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xfbb4bc…
10-28 11:24:05	Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0x88de6d…
10-28 11:24:02	Will Google say "TPU" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	61	80¢	$49	0x93200d…
10-27 12:34:17	Will Cloudflare (NET) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xea7725…
10-27 11:38:08	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	54	73¢	$40	0x7bab55…
10-27 11:13:57	Will Google say "TPU" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x132941…
10-27 11:13:09	Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x0d7e4e…
10-27 11:12:47	Will Microsoft say "Gaming" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0xe3ff2a…
10-27 11:12:12	Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x6ea09a…
10-27 10:03:47	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4650ff…
10-26 20:23:08	Will SoFi (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	80	65¢	$52	0xaefb35…
10-26 19:47:03	Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0xe03b5b…
10-26 18:58:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x93e20a…
10-26 18:56:21	Will SoFi (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x64eaf9…
10-26 11:12:54	Will Verizon say "Satellite" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x886cf3…
10-25 14:09:30	Will Coca-Cola say "Middle East" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x9c3cb9…
10-25 10:54:24	Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0xf9b48c…
10-25 04:31:12	Will Verizon say "Fiber" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x8098df…
10-24 23:05:23	SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	125	96¢	$119	0x77e687…
10-24 23:00:03	Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xe3c94c…
10-24 22:53:26	Fort Worth: Jenson Brooksby vs Gabriel Debru	Gabriel Debru	SELL	36	55¢	$20	0xfe44fa…
10-24 22:42:33	Fort Worth: Jenson Brooksby vs Gabriel Debru	Gabriel Debru	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0x326ed1…
10-24 21:48:56	Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-10-24?	No	SELL	60	6¢	$3	0xc98b7d…
10-24 21:48:36	Will CA Talleres vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0xcbb43a…
10-24 21:46:14	Will CA Talleres vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xae87d9…
10-24 21:37:18	Will Robinhood say "Weekend" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	11	50¢	$5	0xbea61f…
10-24 21:34:26	Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x8b0e74…
10-24 21:09:05	Will Robinhood say "Weekend" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0xc230d6…
10-24 21:00:57	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x3a4e2b…
10-24 20:57:15	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x3854a1…
10-24 20:57:12	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	59	67¢	$40	0x5da59b…
10-24 20:42:27	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?	No	SELL	108	99¢	$107	0x7cf03b…
10-24 20:36:47	Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	172	97¢	$167	0xf746e8…
10-24 20:32:53	Will Coca-Cola say "Fanta" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x8b37e4…
10-24 20:24:21	Will Robinhood say "Perp" / "Perpetual" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xb8859a…
10-24 20:24:14	Will Robinhood say "Agent" / "Agentic" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x71f9c7…
10-24 20:24:06	Will Robinhood say "Trump" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x072442…