Unfit-Lay 0xa2d7ae…72f2d7
new
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Realized P&L
-$5
Unrealized P&L
+$3
Hit rate
37.5%
Resolved
2
Trades
25
lifetime
Volume
$117
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$88
17 positions
First seen
2026-05-09
last 05-11 07:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Politics
49% — —
Other
33% 50% $-5
Tech
10% — —
Crypto
8% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
3 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -17 $-12 74¢ $-13 $-1 05-09 09:30
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes -36 $-16 34¢ $-12 +$3 05-09 01:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? No +9 $8 97¢ $9 +$1 05-10 01:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? No -6 $-5 100¢ $-6 $-1 05-09 09:30
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No -6 $-5 97¢ $-6 $-0 05-10 10:30
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? No +6 $5 97¢ $5 +$0 05-09 10:30
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Yes +6 $5 91¢ $5 +$0 05-09 08:30
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? No +6 $5 88¢ $5 +$0 05-09 01:30
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $4 86¢ $4 $-0 05-09 15:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? No +4 $4 94¢ $4 +$0 05-09 17:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? No -3 $-3 99¢ $-3 $-1 05-09 21:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? No +3 $3 90¢ $3 +$0 05-11 02:30
Iran leadership change by May 31? No +3 $3 92¢ $3 +$0 05-11 01:30
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? No +4 $3 70¢ $3 $-0 05-09 21:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? No -2 $-2 99¢ $-2 $-0 05-10 10:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? No -2 $-2 98¢ $-2 $-0 05-11 02:30
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No +2 $2 89¢ $2 $-0 05-11 07:30