Specific-Award — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

5,029 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$40.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 07-18 00:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 119 days

Categories

Politics

58% 68% +$300

Other

29% 62% -$168

Sports

8% 48% -$377

Crypto

3% 60% -$68

Tech

1% 55% -$46

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-18).

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	121	$659	1,285	994	+290	No	-$134	06-01 02:37
president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	16	$611	327	327	+0	Yes	$0	07-16 17:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	41	$538	510	542	-32	No	+$49	05-23 18:26
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	69	$535	761	803	-42	No	+$39	04-30 05:54
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	16	$523	360	206	+154	No	+$17	07-15 08:34
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	17	$509	277	304	-27	No	+$1	05-27 20:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	54	$483	907	999	-92	No	-$39	04-21 17:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	83	$482	528	595	-67	No	+$19	04-24 18:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	75	$476	685	727	-41	No	-$2	05-25 03:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$430	290	290	-0	open	—	07-18 00:26
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	10	$393	264	330	-66	Yes	+$5	04-22 13:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	8	$384	374	394	-20	No	+$40	05-15 05:05
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	33	$376	655	268	+387	No	+$84	06-01 03:42
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	50	$371	490	511	-20	No	-$36	04-15 21:57
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	33	$368	468	475	-7	Yes	-$79	04-22 13:49
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	13	$368	223	223	+0	No	-$4	07-12 16:03
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	6	$363	258	258	+0	No	+$3	07-18 00:26
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	8	$347	151	200	-49	Yes	+$2	05-03 07:43
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	10	$335	263	263	+0	open	—	07-18 00:26
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	59	$320	238	266	-28	Yes	+$29	04-30 05:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	70	$319	240	336	-96	No	+$86	04-22 13:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	53	$315	460	460	+0	Yes	+$33	06-14 22:47
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	13	$313	169	168	+1	Yes	-$4	04-17 17:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	14	$313	327	327	+0	No	-$4	04-22 13:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	35	$304	224	336	-112	No	+$49	05-15 05:05
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	33	$296	204	204	+0	No	+$23	04-21 20:15
nba mia cha 2026 04 14	3	$295	176	175	+2	Hornets	+$56	04-15 02:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	10	$277	149	144	+5	No	+$4	04-24 00:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	37	$277	542	573	-32	No	-$1	05-04 00:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	54	$273	192	363	-171	Yes	+$28	04-03 22:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 00:27:00	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x72300f…
07-18 00:27:00	Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	59¢	$3	0x50e5ed…
07-18 00:26:57	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	13	98¢	$12	0xcdcf02…
07-18 00:26:57	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9daf1b…
07-18 00:26:55	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	87	38¢	$33	0xf2b601…
07-18 00:26:55	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	258	60¢	$155	0xdd0f37…
07-18 00:26:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	290	71¢	$206	0xdc3fba…
07-18 00:26:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	SELL	72	80¢	$58	0x851526…
07-18 00:26:55	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	SELL	84	42¢	$35	0x813ca2…
07-18 00:26:55	Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?	Yes	SELL	40	97¢	$38	0x6914b0…
07-18 00:26:55	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	258	71¢	$183	0x5264fe…
07-18 00:26:55	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x48aaa3…
07-18 00:26:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x3c2a25…
07-17 23:14:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	No	BUY	72	83¢	$60	0xdf8f23…
07-17 21:43:34	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x84327c…
07-17 21:24:54	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	24	69¢	$16	0xb268ee…
07-17 20:45:01	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	14	69¢	$9	0xf0354b…
07-17 18:08:09	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	33	95¢	$32	0x6a5b4c…
07-17 16:02:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	79	76¢	$60	0x743748…
07-17 16:01:13	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	173	15¢	$26	0xdb516b…
07-17 16:01:01	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0x885340…
07-17 15:37:51	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	64	95¢	$61	0x39db75…
07-17 13:56:09	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	87	30¢	$26	0xc52079…
07-17 10:57:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	47	76¢	$36	0x76fc2b…
07-17 10:56:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	18	76¢	$14	0x3f6c62…
07-17 10:56:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x491638…
07-17 10:13:30	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x530318…
07-17 08:51:48	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	No	BUY	78	77¢	$60	0x282a35…
07-17 08:27:15	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0x204f8b…
07-17 00:28:52	over 75m committed to the credible public sale	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x3c2d87…
07-16 21:42:43	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	86	70¢	$60	0x04e5d4…
07-16 21:42:22	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	86	70¢	$60	0x5abdf6…
07-16 21:07:08	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	29	89¢	$26	0x0c6a32…
07-16 20:49:07	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xd77f85…
07-16 18:16:25	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	71	69¢	$49	0x6811b6…
07-16 18:15:50	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x189edc…
07-16 17:20:38	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	57	94¢	$53	0x8dfa5b…
07-16 17:20:26	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	25	94¢	$24	0x0600c2…
07-16 15:16:26	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2a37a4…
07-16 03:39:53	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x1f0659…
07-16 03:32:20	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0xd24c45…
07-16 03:32:08	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x092940…
07-16 03:29:32	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	7	36¢	$2	0x97b72c…
07-16 03:23:43	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0xbb2ff0…
07-16 03:23:17	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	10	36¢	$3	0x57b78c…
07-16 03:23:05	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0x326e32…
07-16 03:22:41	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	13	36¢	$5	0x62fc75…
07-16 03:22:02	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x908155…
07-16 03:20:49	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x5b331a…
07-16 03:19:49	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x36b16f…
07-16 03:19:13	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x187c19…
07-16 03:18:55	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	19	36¢	$7	0x8e360f…
07-16 03:17:02	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x31a513…
07-16 03:16:29	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x61c995…
07-16 03:15:28	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x882262…
07-16 03:14:07	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xcc9109…
07-16 03:13:37	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	15	36¢	$5	0x1e4cda…
07-16 03:13:32	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0x621c90…
07-15 21:51:13	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	180	34¢	$60	0xd5e027…
07-15 21:31:34	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0xba1e36…
07-15 21:19:31	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0x194d5c…
07-15 20:02:16	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	37	44¢	$16	0xcabbb3…
07-15 20:02:07	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x029dca…
07-15 20:01:25	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0x949bf9…
07-15 10:58:23	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	27	80¢	$21	0xb86a16…
07-15 08:34:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xcbc0df…
07-15 08:28:29	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	98	89¢	$87	0x3dfef9…
07-15 03:07:46	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0xed068a…
07-15 03:07:46	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x8ae3a3…
07-15 03:02:35	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x114710…
07-15 03:00:11	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	32	32¢	$10	0xd5c783…
07-15 02:47:08	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x62b462…
07-15 02:43:50	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	11	31¢	$3	0x1546c5…
07-15 02:36:13	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	12	88¢	$10	0xd48d14…
07-15 02:10:40	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0x645d2e…
07-15 01:56:52	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0xa42061…
07-15 01:39:31	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0x54eea6…
07-15 01:01:11	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0xc22a4f…
07-15 00:20:08	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xc8b088…
07-15 00:20:08	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x64b5b1…
07-15 00:18:53	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	14	31¢	$4	0x9c1d5c…
07-15 00:09:01	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0xd7c356…
07-15 00:08:59	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0x682c03…
07-14 23:20:04	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x1cf407…
07-14 22:47:40	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	BUY	77	77¢	$60	0xcdd66e…
07-14 21:39:01	over 75m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x0a2fa6…
07-14 21:10:16	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	61	59¢	$36	0xd0e330…
07-14 20:24:47	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	250	24¢	$60	0xec331f…
07-14 20:23:34	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	SELL	88	98¢	$86	0x63ae61…
07-14 19:25:13	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	61	34¢	$21	0x1ea3ea…
07-14 19:21:14	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	81	56¢	$45	0xc74efb…
07-14 12:24:56	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0xdf021f…
07-14 10:36:53	will ethereum reach 1900 on july 14	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0xdc3c97…
07-14 08:21:05	will bitcoin reach 65k on july 14	No	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x448cb2…
07-14 05:22:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	74	81¢	$60	0x6681b5…
07-14 04:45:47	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xe13977…
07-14 04:41:37	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x942502…
07-13 20:25:44	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	71	84¢	$60	0xd2dba6…
07-13 15:23:58	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	87	65¢	$57	0x4c5e76…
07-13 08:59:19	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x257905…