Grounded-Concept — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$222

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,012

lifetime

Volume

$70.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 07-31 16:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

75% 78% $-231

Politics

14% 100% +$9

Tech

7% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will spy dip to 730 by june 1 2026	3	$1.3K	667	667	+0	open	—	06-05 19:57
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	4	$885	466	466	+0	open	—	06-26 05:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$809	420	420	+0	open	—	05-12 04:38
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$700	407	407	+0	open	—	07-07 15:49
will something very bad is going to happen season 1 be the top us netflix show this week	9	$675	345	345	+0	open	—	04-07 19:26
fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	2	$647	353	352	+1	open	—	06-27 01:47
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	4	$565	294	294	+0	open	—	05-20 11:01
Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31?	5	$540	305	254	+51	open	—	06-01 11:50
fl1 psg tou 2026 04 03 exact score 1 0	3	$529	294	294	+0	open	—	04-02 02:42
Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?	4	$483	248	248	+0	open	—	06-01 04:30
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	3	$482	248	248	+0	open	—	04-11 03:58
wti closes above 93 on june 3 2026	3	$475	247	246	+1	open	—	06-03 20:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 1 2026?	2	$475	245	245	+0	open	—	06-03 05:18
will meta reach 690 by june 1 2026	4	$472	242	242	+0	open	—	06-05 19:57
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 1?	3	$468	241	241	+0	open	—	06-01 18:56
will wti dip to 85 by june 1 2026	4	$464	242	242	+0	open	—	06-05 02:49
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 1?	2	$448	246	246	+0	open	—	06-01 12:14
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	2	$443	229	229	+0	open	—	06-13 15:08
will russia enter malokaterynivka by march 31 2026	3	$442	235	235	+0	open	—	02-26 13:00
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?	5	$440	231	231	+0	open	—	06-02 07:31
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$430	220	220	+0	open	—	07-01 19:27
will the us tariff rate on china be between 15 and 25 on march 31	3	$416	218	218	+0	open	—	03-30 12:52
xrp above 1pt2 on april 5	3	$404	219	219	+0	open	—	04-02 13:29
will the night agent season 3 be the top us netflix show this week 842	3	$403	208	208	+0	open	—	03-01 12:19
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	3	$393	205	205	+0	open	—	05-19 17:55
will spy dip to 735 by june 1 2026	3	$384	200	200	+0	open	—	06-05 19:57
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	5	$379	199	198	+1	open	—	06-20 01:50
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	10	$376	193	193	+0	open	—	03-01 03:21
will magicblock launch a token by june 30 2026	2	$374	193	193	+0	open	—	06-26 22:50
will the first eaglet hatch on april 8 2026 532 678	3	$367	189	188	+1	open	—	04-09 02:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-31 16:37:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	SELL	54	95¢	$51	0x1f7378…
07-31 16:37:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	52	94¢	$49	0xbd1050…
07-31 16:37:14	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 105 mph 20260626193609217	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0xb15d80…
07-31 16:36:54	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xfc7900…
07-28 18:00:34	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 105 mph 20260626193609217	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x4ad5c7…
07-28 16:51:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x4e63e3…
07-28 16:09:55	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xbfe5af…
07-07 15:49:34	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	407	86¢	$350	0x21cec0…
07-07 15:46:23	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	407	86¢	$350	0x0b7af6…
07-05 13:19:49	chi sgr zhe 2026 07 05 total 4pt5	Under	SELL	61	16¢	$10	0x0a913d…
07-05 12:55:56	chi sgr zhe 2026 07 05 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xa9a71a…
07-04 13:14:08	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xeccb9a…
07-01 23:11:37	Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0xdd1471…
07-01 19:27:34	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	220	100¢	$220	0xc13eec…
07-01 12:28:52	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xfcc7a2…
07-01 12:20:35	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x40d95f…
07-01 11:28:56	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x4656d7…
07-01 04:01:43	LIV Golf merger/acquisition announced by June 30?	No	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x80c845…
07-01 04:01:34	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xa9bb17…
07-01 04:01:31	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0x24e32e…
06-30 00:15:44	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc0e606…
06-29 01:51:55	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x58224b…
06-28 04:34:47	Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	SELL	78	98¢	$77	0xb73365…
06-27 22:23:26	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x56acc9…
06-27 09:59:56	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x1333da…
06-27 01:47:20	fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	Cabo Verde	SELL	352	99¢	$347	0x5ef17f…
06-26 23:07:02	fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	Cabo Verde	BUY	353	85¢	$300	0x69f56e…
06-26 22:50:37	will magicblock launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	193	98¢	$189	0x5e3b57…
06-26 22:50:08	Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xecf882…
06-26 06:25:37	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	10¢	$10	0x106bec…
06-26 05:21:44	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	SELL	227	100¢	$227	0x9a6c75…
06-26 01:57:43	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	SELL	239	99¢	$236	0xfe7943…
06-25 22:44:22	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	334	90¢	$300	0x1c3204…
06-25 14:03:14	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0xb56055…
06-25 08:45:40	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0x9352ba…
06-25 08:45:10	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	133	91¢	$121	0xcb24ee…
06-24 23:19:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$114	0xa2927f…
06-24 10:29:28	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xe9bdfd…
06-24 10:29:26	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0xa2c44f…
06-24 02:57:19	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xff2e52…
06-24 02:56:47	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?	No	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0xc79c6d…
06-23 23:29:47	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd12b07…
06-23 23:16:22	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$16	0xff3e7e…
06-23 06:21:07	Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	SELL	104	99¢	$102	0x394ea7…
06-22 14:19:29	Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x2e790d…
06-22 14:04:16	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	96¢	$105	0x330503…
06-22 14:03:40	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	96¢	$105	0xbfc037…
06-22 14:02:01	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x4cd961…
06-22 14:01:25	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xec4baf…
06-21 14:24:01	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x649908…
06-21 14:03:38	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0x58dc06…
06-20 21:42:25	LIV Golf merger/acquisition announced by June 30?	No	BUY	99	95¢	$94	0x8e47d6…
06-20 19:54:08	Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xaee0f5…
06-20 15:29:32	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0x02c927…
06-20 15:28:25	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x52d435…
06-20 01:50:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	SELL	142	99¢	$140	0xe5ef19…
06-20 00:46:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xacfe87…
06-19 21:12:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	116	96¢	$111	0xb2e757…
06-19 17:32:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xd2a32f…
06-18 10:15:47	Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x7e8ba3…
06-17 19:30:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	188	92¢	$173	0xdfb367…
06-17 19:30:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xa03692…
06-17 06:34:08	Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	BUY	101	95¢	$96	0x8efa13…
06-17 02:18:39	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	SELL	96	99¢	$95	0x8aa49e…
06-17 01:51:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x31decd…
06-16 14:50:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0xaba1c2…
06-16 14:50:44	Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xbbf377…
06-16 04:19:12	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	222	95¢	$211	0xc40154…
06-16 04:18:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x7510d6…
06-16 04:18:42	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	11	94¢	$11	0x741a00…
06-15 01:43:13	Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	184	99¢	$181	0x5c1a69…
06-13 15:08:48	Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	SELL	229	99¢	$226	0x76c3e9…
06-13 00:30:30	will magicblock launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	193	96¢	$185	0x1722fa…
06-13 00:24:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	119	99¢	$117	0x0e1b1a…
06-11 21:10:28	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	96¢	$63	0x2e52d6…
06-11 21:09:57	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0x8f593f…
06-11 15:06:43	will standx launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0xc9fa74…
06-10 19:25:30	Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	96¢	$137	0xd48e0e…
06-10 19:24:58	Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0x651f30…
06-10 13:05:13	Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	BUY	109	96¢	$105	0x3aba06…
06-10 13:03:40	will standx launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xda2766…
06-10 13:03:37	will standx launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0xa51b9b…
06-10 12:35:57	Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	BUY	90	96¢	$86	0x9036b0…
06-10 12:35:24	Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x5bc7b1…
06-10 02:27:55	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	BUY	77	96¢	$74	0x1cf4a1…
06-10 02:27:24	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x559711…
06-10 02:26:52	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x04748a…
06-10 00:03:12	Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	BUY	229	95¢	$218	0xf14fbf…
06-09 17:04:25	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	83	99¢	$82	0xe1c76e…
06-09 17:04:12	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0x7eeffb…
06-09 09:35:10	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	150	92¢	$138	0x2b9a73…
06-09 05:21:04	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	77	93¢	$72	0x4bd15c…
06-09 05:20:33	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xd94358…
06-09 00:41:54	will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x934ccc…
06-08 21:08:27	will apple announce a foldable iphone during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0xb75997…
06-08 18:39:30	will apple announce a foldable iphone during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x8de183…
06-08 12:22:40	ethereum above 1300 on june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfa6c2e…
06-08 00:00:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	75	92¢	$69	0x2d9397…
06-07 23:59:18	ethereum above 1300 on june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xad0298…
06-06 18:37:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	119	91¢	$108	0x16c444…