Grounded-Concept — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.7%

Resolved

691

Trades

2,291

lifetime

Volume

$89.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 07-31 16:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 154 days

Categories

Other

75% 79% +$12

Politics

16% 84% +$207

Tech

7% 84% -$141

Crypto

2% 21% -$97

Sports

0% 62% +$4

Pop-Culture

0% 33% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-31).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will spy dip to 730 by june 1 2026	3	$1.3K	667	667	+0	No	+$60	06-05 19:57
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	10	$1.1K	590	590	+0	Yes	+$39	06-30 21:56
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	4	$885	466	466	+0	Yes	+$40	06-26 05:21
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	5	$843	444	444	+0	No	+$43	07-06 14:02
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?	2	$840	444	444	+0	Yes	+$40	07-14 12:31
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?	4	$833	439	439	+0	Yes	+$33	06-30 18:38
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	5	$818	426	426	+0	No	+$22	05-17 00:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	4	$809	420	420	+0	No	+$19	05-12 04:38
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May?	3	$720	368	368	+0	No	+$14	06-11 12:30
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$700	407	407	+0	Argentina	+$0	07-07 15:49
will something very bad is going to happen season 1 be the top us netflix show this week	9	$675	345	345	+0	No	+$13	04-07 19:26
fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	2	$647	353	352	+1	Cabo Verde	+$48	06-27 01:47
Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31?	6	$590	305	305	+0	No	+$13	06-01 11:50
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	4	$565	294	294	+0	Yes	+$15	05-20 11:01
fl1 psg tou 2026 04 03 exact score 1 0	3	$529	294	294	+0	No	-$9	04-02 02:42
Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31?	4	$483	248	248	+0	No	+$13	06-01 04:30
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	3	$482	248	248	+0	No	+$8	04-11 03:58
wti closes above 93 on june 3 2026	3	$475	247	246	+1	Yes	+$17	06-03 20:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 1 2026?	2	$475	245	245	+0	No	+$9	06-03 05:18
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?	4	$474	258	258	+0	No	-$13	06-07 16:09
will meta reach 690 by june 1 2026	4	$472	242	242	+0	No	+$7	06-05 19:57
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	4	$470	247	247	+0	No	+$19	06-10 12:58
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 1?	3	$468	241	241	+0	Yes	+$10	06-01 18:56
will wti dip to 85 by june 1 2026	4	$464	242	242	+0	No	+$14	06-05 02:49
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	2	$450	231	231	+0	No	+$6	06-21 10:28
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 1?	2	$448	246	246	+0	Yes	-$5	06-01 12:14
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$443	229	229	+0	Yes	+$8	06-20 20:41
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	2	$443	229	229	+0	No	+$8	06-13 15:08
will russia enter malokaterynivka by march 31 2026	3	$442	235	235	+0	No	-$6	02-26 13:00
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?	5	$440	231	231	+0	No	+$16	06-02 07:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-31 16:38:09	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	108	95¢	$102	0x361e33…
07-31 16:38:02	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	90¢	$97	0x5991c8…
07-31 16:37:54	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in July?	No	SELL	104	92¢	$96	0x12c12a…
07-31 16:37:48	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	SELL	103	86¢	$89	0x0ddb8f…
07-31 16:37:41	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	81	98¢	$80	0x7908cb…
07-31 16:37:35	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	87¢	$58	0x7043e2…
07-31 16:37:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	SELL	54	95¢	$51	0x1f7378…
07-31 16:37:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	52	94¢	$49	0xbd1050…
07-31 16:37:14	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 105 mph 20260626193609217	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0xb15d80…
07-31 16:37:08	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting?	No	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0xf7de59…
07-31 16:37:02	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xfe34ed…
07-31 16:36:54	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xfc7900…
07-31 16:36:17	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	107	5¢	$5	0x5a4917…
07-31 16:36:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	106	0¢	$0	0x3b9f52…
07-31 16:36:05	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	69	0¢	$0	0xdd9079…
07-29 22:56:47	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x9738ff…
07-29 21:49:09	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	BUY	103	92¢	$95	0xf600ec…
07-29 14:44:59	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	69	91¢	$63	0xfe87da…
07-29 14:28:06	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0x6c8ae2…
07-29 14:27:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xdaadf2…
07-29 02:59:54	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x4bcbd5…
07-29 02:44:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x490691…
07-29 01:56:42	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	81	94¢	$76	0xd095c3…
07-28 22:42:56	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	94¢	$63	0x8b4cf6…
07-28 19:52:29	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	108	92¢	$99	0x9ae565…
07-28 18:00:34	will the highest recorded wind on mtpt washington in july be at least 105 mph 20260626193609217	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x4ad5c7…
07-28 16:51:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	52	95¢	$49	0x4e63e3…
07-28 16:09:55	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xbfe5af…
07-28 16:07:55	Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in July?	No	BUY	104	92¢	$96	0xe5d4a2…
07-28 16:07:22	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0xaed344…
07-14 12:31:35	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?	Yes	SELL	444	99¢	$440	0x5e9ca4…
07-11 19:00:50	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?	Yes	BUY	444	90¢	$400	0x0d99c4…
07-07 15:49:34	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	407	86¢	$350	0x21cec0…
07-07 15:46:23	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	407	86¢	$350	0x0b7af6…
07-06 14:02:14	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8a6ac4…
07-06 13:01:25	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	No	SELL	286	100¢	$286	0x4255a6…
07-06 03:24:16	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	No	SELL	46	99¢	$46	0x271bf1…
07-06 03:24:14	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	No	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0x0157e1…
07-05 13:28:56	Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0x66ffb0…
07-05 13:19:49	chi sgr zhe 2026 07 05 total 4pt5	Under	SELL	61	16¢	$10	0x0a913d…
07-05 13:12:01	Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xfc884b…
07-05 12:55:56	chi sgr zhe 2026 07 05 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xa9a71a…
07-04 13:14:08	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xeccb9a…
07-01 23:11:37	Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0xdd1471…
07-01 19:27:34	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	220	100¢	$220	0xc13eec…
07-01 12:28:52	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xfcc7a2…
07-01 12:20:35	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x40d95f…
07-01 11:28:56	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x4656d7…
07-01 04:01:43	LIV Golf merger/acquisition announced by June 30?	No	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x80c845…
07-01 04:01:34	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xa9bb17…
07-01 04:01:31	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0x24e32e…
07-01 01:57:56	Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?	No	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x546387…
06-30 21:56:13	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xe08274…
06-30 20:08:35	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xdc08b5…
06-30 19:46:26	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	161	99¢	$160	0xfd06e9…
06-30 19:32:40	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeting?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xe5b687…
06-30 18:38:08	Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?	Yes	SELL	238	99¢	$235	0xecff19…
06-30 18:28:56	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	108	99¢	$107	0x214e21…
06-30 18:28:05	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0xf6c470…
06-30 18:27:58	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x335fd3…
06-30 18:27:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?	No	SELL	95	94¢	$90	0x15c48a…
06-30 18:22:16	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeting?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x625172…
06-30 18:19:46	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	155	99¢	$153	0x5045bd…
06-30 15:53:34	Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?	Yes	SELL	201	99¢	$198	0x6a3fd7…
06-30 00:15:44	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc0e606…
06-29 01:51:55	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x58224b…
06-28 14:49:41	Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x92ae85…
06-28 14:49:20	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	160	94¢	$150	0xffce21…
06-28 14:48:32	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	No	BUY	444	90¢	$400	0xefeda9…
06-28 13:00:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?	No	SELL	119	83¢	$99	0xdcc03b…
06-28 04:34:47	Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	SELL	78	98¢	$77	0xb73365…
06-28 01:17:58	Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	No	SELL	128	99¢	$126	0x8411fb…
06-27 22:23:26	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x56acc9…
06-27 20:55:32	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	163	92¢	$150	0xb554d7…
06-27 20:43:22	Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0x4b27e6…
06-27 09:59:56	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x1333da…
06-27 01:47:20	fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	Cabo Verde	SELL	352	99¢	$347	0x5ef17f…
06-26 23:07:02	fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	Cabo Verde	BUY	353	85¢	$300	0x69f56e…
06-26 22:50:37	will magicblock launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	193	98¢	$189	0x5e3b57…
06-26 22:50:08	Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xecf882…
06-26 22:45:58	Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x332c04…
06-26 22:45:40	Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?	Yes	BUY	330	91¢	$300	0x179a15…
06-26 06:25:37	Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	10¢	$10	0x106bec…
06-26 05:21:44	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	SELL	227	100¢	$227	0x9a6c75…
06-26 01:57:43	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	SELL	239	99¢	$236	0xfe7943…
06-25 22:44:22	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	334	90¢	$300	0x1c3204…
06-25 15:39:55	Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x897c18…
06-25 14:03:14	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0xb56055…
06-25 08:45:40	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0x9352ba…
06-25 08:45:10	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	133	91¢	$121	0xcb24ee…
06-24 23:31:14	Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0xd8a22e…
06-24 23:19:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$114	0xa2927f…
06-24 10:29:28	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xe9bdfd…
06-24 10:29:26	Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0xa2c44f…
06-24 02:57:19	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xff2e52…
06-24 02:56:47	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by June 30?	No	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0xc79c6d…
06-23 23:29:47	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd12b07…
06-23 23:16:22	Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$16	0xff3e7e…
06-23 06:21:07	Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	SELL	104	99¢	$102	0x394ea7…
06-22 14:19:29	Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x2e790d…