Pessimistic-Migration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.8%

Resolved

Trades

114

lifetime

Volume

$183

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-02

last 06-29 17:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 38% $-7

Other

22% 0% $-8

Politics

20% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	4	$21	38	38	+0	open	—	04-23 09:17
israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	2	$10	25	0	+25	open	—	04-06 08:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	3	$8	32	0	+32	No	$-8	04-07 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	3	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	04-30 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	5	$7	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 11:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	4	$5	12	12	+0	open	—	04-30 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	4	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-30 10:50
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$5	19	19	+0	open	—	04-29 10:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	3	$5	7	7	+0	open	—	04-30 11:13
houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	1	$5	24	0	+24	open	—	04-04 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	4	$5	58	2	+56	Down	$-1	05-05 11:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	3	$4	11	7	+5	open	—	04-30 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	2	$4	5	5	+0	Up	+$2	05-05 12:23
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$4	13	0	+13	open	—	04-23 07:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	05-05 11:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	04-29 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	3	$3	8	6	+3	Up	$-1	05-05 12:07
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	2	$3	14	0	+14	open	—	04-02 08:49
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$3	66	66	+0	open	—	04-22 10:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$3	7	0	+7	open	—	04-22 10:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	3	$3	19	0	+19	Up	$-3	05-05 11:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	3	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	04-29 13:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	2	$3	5	5	+0	open	—	04-23 09:17
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	2	$3	9	9	+0	open	—	04-29 10:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-29 12:29
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	1	$2	92	0	+92	open	—	04-21 06:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-30 09:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-29 11:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	2	$2	4	4	+0	open	—	04-30 11:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 17:36:50	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xb07c69…
05-05 12:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x90a28d…
05-05 12:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe49fbd…
05-05 12:23:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x4b09d6…
05-05 12:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7927f0…
05-05 12:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x4ac57e…
05-05 12:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x7004e2…
05-05 12:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0xb292e2…
05-05 12:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x3c11be…
05-05 12:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x76ca7b…
05-05 12:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x910695…
05-05 12:06:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9df33f…
05-05 11:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe36e14…
05-05 11:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x974b61…
05-05 11:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd77156…
05-05 11:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa8c4d7…
05-05 11:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x89fc8b…
05-05 11:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xb0dced…
05-05 11:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x8d7cbc…
05-05 11:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc885e7…
05-05 11:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3b748a…
05-05 11:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa53f79…
05-05 11:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf6b0ea…
05-05 11:25:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x620ebf…
05-05 11:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	42¢	$2	0xd9fe59…
05-05 11:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd7b51d…
05-05 11:21:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x19530f…
05-05 11:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x759a24…
05-05 11:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x5e84f1…
05-05 11:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xbc1934…
05-05 11:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x23592f…
05-05 11:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb00bd8…
05-05 09:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xdeb613…
04-30 11:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x514ed7…
04-30 11:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x0af2ab…
04-30 11:22:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x66389b…
04-30 11:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x837dc7…
04-30 11:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x81fb3b…
04-30 11:16:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x63a471…
04-30 11:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0x12e0a0…
04-30 11:12:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xe95efc…
04-30 11:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x8a482d…
04-30 10:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x28d4db…
04-30 10:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x3b75e2…
04-30 10:57:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x5daa50…
04-30 10:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x2bbcd1…
04-30 10:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x17e072…
04-30 10:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd27e2f…
04-30 10:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xe8816d…
04-30 10:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf5f403…
04-30 10:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x7a667d…
04-30 10:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x42ea37…
04-30 10:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe7caaa…
04-30 09:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x0f5cb0…
04-30 09:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x571659…
04-30 09:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x1b4c0d…
04-30 09:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xdb0ba0…
04-30 09:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0x83aae5…
04-30 09:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x01db2d…
04-30 09:18:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe44492…
04-29 16:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3f5ca4…
04-29 15:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x131970…
04-29 15:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x78002b…
04-29 15:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xe97121…
04-29 15:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xbbf926…
04-29 14:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xaab21c…
04-29 14:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xacca73…
04-29 13:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x993b68…
04-29 13:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xcb5a51…
04-29 13:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x3f23c8…
04-29 13:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0cc0a1…
04-29 13:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x16ecd8…
04-29 12:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x60d06d…
04-29 12:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x213a78…
04-29 12:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc22f45…
04-29 12:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd45d3a…
04-29 11:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0xd1d685…
04-29 11:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9fcfa6…
04-29 11:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x3f1063…
04-29 11:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0x7d0ecc…
04-29 11:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x989881…
04-29 11:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xa33878…
04-29 11:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x896cf1…
04-29 10:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x20120d…
04-29 10:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x29d2c9…
04-29 10:38:30	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xca3ec8…
04-29 10:38:08	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	1¢	$0	0x567226…
04-23 12:21:28	Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x7dcdfa…
04-23 12:21:04	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x71a7cf…
04-23 12:20:54	Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0xb662b9…
04-23 09:17:40	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0x404894…
04-23 09:17:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x9added…
04-23 07:47:22	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc351c9…
04-22 10:45:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x9c7a10…
04-22 10:29:00	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	3¢	$2	0x434722…
04-22 09:41:22	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xeb4ba8…
04-21 06:58:14	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	92	3¢	$2	0x917ed0…
04-21 06:51:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3a752c…
04-21 06:32:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6cf5ee…
04-21 06:27:24	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0x38ea26…