Realized P&L
+$6
Unrealized P&L
-$53
Hit rate
64.3%
Resolved
217
Trades
520,534
lifetime
Volume
$5.48M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$743
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-28
last 07-20 12:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 31 days
Categories
Other
73% 49% +$45
Politics
14% 44% $-46
Sports
10% 48% $-11
Crypto
1% 48% +$19
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
39 active days in 12wk • peak 5075 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
SHEIN IPO before 2027? Yes -60 $-13 86¢ $-52 $-39 06-25 14:40
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No -45 $-42 96¢ $-43 $-1 06-15 13:53
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No -45 $-39 94¢ $-42 $-3 06-15 13:58
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No -42 $-39 94¢ $-40 $-1 06-15 13:53
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? No -39 $-36 96¢ $-38 $-2 06-17 19:58
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes -45 $-35 74¢ $-34 +$2 06-15 14:14
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No -61 $-30 54¢ $-33 $-2 06-15 13:57
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes -31 $-27 96¢ $-30 $-3 06-15 13:57
Will Alberta join the US? No -30 $-29 97¢ $-29 $-0 06-15 13:53
OKX IPO in 2026? No -32 $-28 92¢ $-29 $-1 06-15 13:53
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027? No -30 $-29 97¢ $-29 +$0 06-29 19:28
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No -30 $-28 94¢ $-28 $-1 06-17 18:00
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No -30 $-26 94¢ $-28 $-2 06-15 19:42
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No -30 $-27 91¢ $-27 $-1 06-15 13:53
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? No -30 $-26 87¢ $-26 $-0 07-05 07:31
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? No -33 $-23 80¢ $-26 $-3 06-26 12:38
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes -60 $-26 38¢ $-23 +$3 06-18 11:51
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes -106 $-32 19¢ $-21 +$11 06-20 12:48
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No -23 $-19 86¢ $-20 $-1 06-15 13:57
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes -20 $-19 95¢ $-19 +$0 06-15 13:54
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -23 $-17 84¢ $-19 $-2 06-15 13:57
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes -20 $-15 76¢ $-15 +$0 06-19 13:21
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -15 $-13 90¢ $-13 $-0 06-20 04:47
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No -22 $-8 60¢ $-13 $-5 06-15 15:13
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? No -18 $-11 70¢ $-12 $-1 06-16 03:17
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No -45 $-11 26¢ $-11 $-1 06-15 16:24
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -29 $-8 39¢ $-11 $-4 06-15 13:53
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -45 $-15 24¢ $-11 +$5 06-22 10:58
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? No -11 $-10 94¢ $-10 $-0 06-15 13:54
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? Yes -180 $-10 $-10 +$0 06-15 13:58