Candid-Lighting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$721

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.9%

Resolved

Trades

3,355

lifetime

Volume

$954.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$285

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 07:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 85% +$919

Other

38% — —

Sports

5% 0% $-1,640

Politics

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	94	$35.0K	26,020	28,190	-2,170	open	—	03-24 13:55
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?	18	$29.2K	15,060	23,737	-8,678	open	—	04-10 02:41
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	110	$22.5K	43,795	40,638	+3,156	open	—	03-24 19:59
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	47	$19.3K	13,315	12,263	+1,052	open	—	04-30 13:44
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	42	$17.4K	15,300	11,941	+3,359	open	—	03-24 03:56
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	22	$15.1K	7,963	8,463	-500	open	—	04-27 05:20
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?	23	$15.0K	8,496	8,425	+71	open	—	04-30 13:56
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	36	$15.0K	10,500	11,391	-892	open	—	02-03 09:37
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	57	$14.4K	9,302	9,051	+250	open	—	03-10 00:40
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	50	$14.0K	17,545	17,545	+0	open	—	02-27 20:41
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?	46	$13.4K	24,557	24,391	+166	open	—	02-28 12:25
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	45	$12.2K	8,998	8,882	+117	open	—	03-24 04:29
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	26	$11.8K	11,484	12,188	-704	open	—	03-30 12:04
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	26	$11.1K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	04-20 20:29
over 100m committed to the ranger public sale 221 979 762 217 192	42	$10.5K	8,566	8,566	+0	open	—	01-10 15:58
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	18	$9.9K	6,086	6,000	+86	open	—	04-30 13:51
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	27	$9.8K	9,788	426	+9,362	open	—	03-21 00:54
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	5	$9.7K	10,164	0	+10,164	open	—	02-12 14:45
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	26	$9.6K	9,904	6,004	+3,900	open	—	04-23 16:22
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	22	$9.4K	6,971	7,003	-33	open	—	04-30 09:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$9.3K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	03-24 20:25
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?	17	$8.9K	6,457	6,957	-500	open	—	02-03 15:39
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	5	$8.5K	3,000	5,500	-2,500	open	—	01-03 01:20
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	24	$8.4K	8,062	8,062	+0	open	—	05-23 08:10
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?	8	$8.4K	4,435	4,435	+0	open	—	03-17 01:23
over 60m committed to the ranger public sale 296 929 632	18	$8.3K	7,173	7,373	-200	open	—	01-10 15:12
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	28	$8.2K	4,407	4,407	+0	open	—	03-21 23:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	22	$8.1K	6,100	3,300	+2,800	open	—	04-23 18:09
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	9	$7.8K	5,580	3,504	+2,076	Yes	+$762	04-13 15:46
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	17	$7.5K	4,645	4,593	+52	open	—	03-31 23:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 07:02:07	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	752	67¢	$504	0x84858f…
08-11 00:25:52	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xc6afe3…
08-11 00:25:42	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	44	67¢	$30	0xd9464e…
08-11 00:25:40	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xff82de…
08-11 00:25:39	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	98	67¢	$66	0x77ec09…
08-10 23:08:40	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xc120f8…
08-10 19:07:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	1,866	15¢	$280	0x9908b9…
08-10 19:06:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	300	15¢	$45	0xa00242…
08-10 19:04:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	1,000	15¢	$150	0x3cdde0…
08-10 19:04:34	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	388	56¢	$217	0xd80ef6…
08-10 19:01:28	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	67	56¢	$38	0x6b08f6…
08-10 19:00:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0xfccfd9…
08-10 19:00:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x75b70e…
08-10 19:00:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	2,825	15¢	$424	0xa83508…
08-10 18:58:22	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1,545	56¢	$865	0x5a5dff…
08-10 18:55:27	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	84¢	$843	0xc4c32e…
08-10 18:53:06	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	94¢	$150	0x25a29f…
08-10 18:40:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	3,000	16¢	$480	0x5dd0a3…
08-10 18:36:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	3,000	18¢	$532	0xb92584…
08-10 18:36:19	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	1,000	83¢	$830	0x316ae3…
08-10 18:14:19	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x08f3a2…
08-10 16:55:36	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$141	0x2c7093…
08-10 16:55:19	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	600	70¢	$419	0xc31ab4…
08-10 16:55:01	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	300	79¢	$236	0x78e573…
08-10 16:54:43	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,330	48¢	$640	0x531a0e…
08-10 16:10:45	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	428	67¢	$285	0xeb523d…
08-10 16:08:40	Multipli.fi FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	62	93¢	$58	0xb80b32…
08-10 16:08:31	Multipli.fi FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	58	94¢	$55	0x77b91f…
08-10 16:07:30	Cambria FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	600	80¢	$483	0x913eda…
08-10 15:51:16	Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xcdc5f5…
08-10 08:02:06	APYX FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x829cb4…
08-09 22:42:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	603	87¢	$525	0xd1f4f9…
08-09 22:28:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xc48ef7…
08-09 22:21:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x25e5f5…
08-09 22:11:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	381	87¢	$332	0xefef5d…
08-06 21:19:03	Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	642	75¢	$482	0x3655b8…
08-04 20:48:32	APYX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x5c7688…
08-02 19:35:26	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0xae89cf…
07-30 23:50:27	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x899d71…
07-30 23:50:17	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x2356fa…
07-30 23:40:05	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x1c1adc…
07-30 16:05:29	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	186	40¢	$74	0xe582fd…
07-30 16:02:18	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	39¢	$196	0x5f5de0…
07-30 16:01:00	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2,000	49¢	$980	0x928d29…
07-30 15:59:24	grvt fdv above 400m one day after launch	No	BUY	500	86¢	$429	0x758b45…
07-30 14:23:56	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3,480	1¢	$45	0x5afb96…
07-30 12:11:27	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	69	74¢	$51	0x871dfe…
07-30 12:11:02	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	No	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x1799e0…
07-30 12:10:51	grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x049f06…
07-30 12:10:32	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x292814…
07-30 12:10:24	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	500	74¢	$368	0x7510ed…
07-30 12:06:17	grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x625173…
07-30 02:50:33	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	89	33¢	$30	0xecbfd4…
07-29 18:12:14	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3,190	58¢	$1,850	0x3d76ae…
07-29 17:06:39	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0x558b17…
07-29 14:38:38	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	228	2¢	$5	0xc95109…
07-29 13:51:30	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2,000	27¢	$540	0x864a47…
07-29 12:33:00	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x5f3cdb…
07-29 12:32:59	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	187	33¢	$62	0x7b8d25…
07-29 12:25:50	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	946	75¢	$710	0x028c9d…
07-29 10:30:36	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	500	31¢	$155	0x635b65…
07-29 09:27:32	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	6,504	2¢	$130	0x06f6c4…
07-29 08:53:51	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	559	33¢	$185	0x402834…
07-29 08:53:45	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2,800	56¢	$1,575	0x96b745…
07-29 08:44:17	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	113	33¢	$37	0xb42f2e…
07-28 18:10:44	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	385	1¢	$5	0x9b4736…
07-28 15:33:47	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	466	28¢	$131	0x2a2338…
07-28 14:36:47	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	170	28¢	$48	0x7579f0…
07-28 14:25:16	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	34	28¢	$10	0x44d48c…
07-28 14:08:38	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	28¢	$8	0x0de63c…
07-28 13:45:07	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	36	28¢	$10	0x591add…
07-28 13:41:17	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	36	28¢	$10	0x43353e…
07-28 12:53:40	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	742	93¢	$692	0x2eba46…
07-28 12:51:10	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	536	28¢	$150	0x8b8286…
07-28 12:42:10	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	330	28¢	$92	0x375060…
07-28 12:41:59	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0x58a0b9…
07-28 12:41:47	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	164	28¢	$46	0x9cd382…
07-28 12:41:44	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xef2ead…
07-28 12:41:23	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	54	72¢	$39	0x296041…
07-28 12:39:59	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3,000	12¢	$360	0x13763a…
07-28 12:39:31	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10,001	12¢	$1,200	0xe27155…
07-27 21:04:18	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,747	32¢	$559	0xad260c…
07-27 14:19:18	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	45	32¢	$14	0x451109…
07-26 16:29:36	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	401	42¢	$168	0x9220bd…
07-25 03:57:40	Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	588	68¢	$400	0x383708…
07-25 03:57:18	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	BUY	500	62¢	$311	0xe97931…
07-25 03:56:04	Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	850	65¢	$552	0xab1583…
07-25 03:54:45	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	700	28¢	$195	0x601b4f…
07-25 03:52:52	Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,800	86¢	$1,541	0x2a7e98…
07-25 03:51:27	Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	26	91¢	$24	0x0ae1e3…
07-23 23:18:19	Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	568	90¢	$511	0x8a19f0…
07-23 19:38:12	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$0	0x628388…
07-23 13:38:58	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0x6ca8d2…
07-23 13:29:09	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	75¢	$8	0xc17d65…
07-23 13:27:43	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x4abc97…
07-23 12:41:28	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x22bf36…
07-23 12:24:45	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x32c5a3…
07-23 11:46:39	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	103	75¢	$77	0xdb3814…
07-23 11:45:04	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	73	75¢	$55	0xd76714…
07-23 11:41:36	Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	75¢	$9	0x48249d…