Separate-Daylight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.16K

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

39.2%

Resolved

275

Trades

412

lifetime

Volume

$11.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$757

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-07

last 10-20 04:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Other

51% 47% -$247

Politics

43% 38% -$674

Crypto

4% 27% -$217

Tech

2% 20% -$4

Sports

0% 0% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-590	-$475	97¢	$-572	-$97	10-13 20:41
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	-100	-$44	76¢	$-76	-$32	06-08 19:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-431	-$110	18¢	$-75	+$35	05-24 15:34
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	-606	-$103	6¢	$-33	+$70	06-08 18:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	5	$475	0	590	-590	open	—	10-13 20:41
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	3	$453	505	505	+0	Yes	-$147	05-24 15:34
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$410	470	901	-431	open	—	05-24 15:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$200	317	0	+317	Yes	+$117	03-27 07:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$190	311	0	+311	Yes	-$190	03-27 17:07
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	2	$177	145	145	+0	Yes	-$23	06-08 22:30
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	2	$172	400	400	+0	No	-$28	05-18 15:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$168	107	107	+0	Yes	+$10	10-06 04:26
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	7	$163	173	140	+33	Yes	-$34	08-02 07:58
Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?	2	$155	1,440	1,440	+0	Yes	-$145	04-12 06:09
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	2	$142	158	158	+0	No	-$58	05-24 15:58
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$136	144	144	+0	Yes	-$64	05-28 04:30
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?	3	$136	137	137	+0	No	-$64	06-12 13:11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$130	50,094	0	+50,094	Yes	-$130	04-21 19:55
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?	2	$125	227	227	+0	No	-$75	05-18 15:15
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$122	165	0	+165	No	-$122	08-15 18:02
iran closes its airspace by june 22	1	$120	215	0	+215	Yes	+$95	06-07 18:53
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	2	$120	1,515	1,515	+0	Yes	-$80	04-12 05:40
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	2	$111	169	169	+0	No	-$89	05-24 15:59
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	3	$109	112	47	+66	Yes	+$5	08-03 18:41
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$109	412	412	+0	No	+$9	03-13 09:00
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	2	$108	136	0	+136	Yes	+$28	07-24 16:44
US recession by end of 2026?	1	$103	0	606	-606	open	—	06-08 18:52
military action against iran ends by april 30 2026 239	1	$100	1,250	0	+1,250	Yes	-$100	04-12 05:46
wti closes above 91 on june 8 2026	1	$100	167	0	+167	Yes	+$67	06-08 18:04
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$100	185	0	+185	No	+$85	03-27 17:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$100	172	0	+172	Yes	+$72	03-27 17:56
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 22?	3	$99	145	0	+145	Yes	+$46	06-22 09:58
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	4	$92	468	259	+208	No	-$58	04-25 13:21
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$90	142	0	+142	Yes	+$52	07-13 19:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 04:24:29	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0x9b7252…
10-14 14:49:51	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x700a97…
10-14 14:43:12	will eu emergency diesel stocks be at least 33m tonnes at end of november 2026	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x541ed8…
10-14 14:41:54	military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 31	Yes	SELL	16	48¢	$8	0x6df9ea…
10-13 20:50:45	will trump say ai during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	Yes	BUY	22	25¢	$5	0xa12dac…
10-13 20:49:10	military action against king khalid international airport ruh by october 31	Yes	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x2c595c…
10-13 20:47:31	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xff82dd…
10-13 20:47:06	will riyadh airport reopen by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xd1bcaa…
10-13 20:41:34	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	96¢	$74	0x30990b…
10-06 04:26:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	107	83¢	$89	0xa10386…
09-05 05:21:31	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0x20f6ad…
09-04 17:43:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	107	74¢	$79	0xd54e30…
08-29 14:59:45	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	SELL	75	38¢	$28	0x2d6e62…
08-24 04:07:00	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	39	66¢	$26	0x03dd97…
08-17 14:24:31	will jared kushner attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221265	Yes	SELL	44	37¢	$16	0x68eb36…
08-17 14:24:03	will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221268	Yes	SELL	37	37¢	$14	0x05f94b…
08-17 14:23:54	will steve witkoff attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221266	Yes	SELL	27	28¢	$8	0xecff7f…
08-15 18:02:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	165	74¢	$122	0xa90307…
08-15 17:53:25	will us crude oil reserves fall to 350m by may 1 20260714141931929	Yes	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x1f5c02…
08-14 15:15:31	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	86¢	$89	0x7ad5ea…
08-13 06:45:51	will steve witkoff attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221266	Yes	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x045106…
08-13 06:45:25	will jared kushner attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221265	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x9c568c…
08-13 06:45:09	will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260812154221268	Yes	BUY	37	79¢	$29	0x687334…
08-12 03:58:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	SELL	49	35¢	$17	0x069bf9…
08-07 04:11:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0x8a7ebc…
08-07 04:08:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	49	76¢	$37	0x8c0114…
08-03 18:46:14	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	No	BUY	12	62¢	$7	0xfa0f87…
08-03 18:41:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x7acaab…
08-03 06:49:24	Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?	Yes	SELL	27	66¢	$18	0x95b1bd…
08-02 15:45:32	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	Yes	SELL	49	60¢	$30	0x2624c2…
08-02 08:20:17	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x016c00…
08-02 07:58:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x4a3475…
08-02 07:47:05	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x43be7c…
08-02 07:45:56	will iran target a arab country on august 2 2026 20260801004719119	Yes	SELL	64	15¢	$9	0x1c9873…
08-02 07:45:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	77	30¢	$23	0x360444…
08-01 16:45:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xb42652…
08-01 14:27:24	will iran target a arab country on august 2 2026 20260801004719119	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x7412ad…
07-30 18:43:18	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	Yes	BUY	49	75¢	$37	0xe21697…
07-30 07:13:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	16	41¢	$7	0x85b9db…
07-30 07:12:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	47	51¢	$24	0x05c1d2…
07-30 07:12:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	32	41¢	$13	0x3d9184…
07-28 19:32:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x34e972…
07-28 17:53:02	will warsh say good day during july press conference 20260720204109031	Yes	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x07ee5e…
07-26 16:40:01	will trump say fake news during michigan remarks 20260724162420374	Yes	BUY	36	80¢	$29	0x3f4443…
07-26 16:38:40	will trump say ukraine during tribute to lindsey graham 20260724170556634	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xd71fdf…
07-26 16:37:00	Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x782845…
07-26 16:32:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	47	75¢	$35	0x3656e2…
07-26 16:31:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x02e4d5…
07-26 16:31:18	Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?	Yes	SELL	32	13¢	$4	0xc828d3…
07-26 16:30:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	31	39¢	$12	0x74289d…
07-26 16:29:30	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	SELL	24	9¢	$2	0x2a6e2e…
07-26 16:29:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0x6970fa…
07-25 07:00:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	Yes	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0xa81bfd…
07-25 06:59:07	will warsh say oil during july press conference 20260720204109045	Yes	BUY	33	73¢	$24	0x85063f…
07-24 16:45:10	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	48	71¢	$34	0xf416af…
07-24 16:44:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	42	84¢	$35	0xc661a3…
07-23 16:57:00	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	70	53¢	$37	0x035cd7…
07-23 16:56:45	Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	75¢	$37	0xa5d95f…
07-23 16:31:12	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	BUY	24	78¢	$19	0x19ea7d…
07-22 15:17:33	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on July 22?	Yes	BUY	16	80¢	$13	0xbd1650…
07-22 15:14:45	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x64f63f…
07-22 15:12:22	will trump say iran 3 times during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255810	Yes	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x9e570b…
07-22 15:10:49	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?	Yes	BUY	29	77¢	$22	0x87cd37…
07-22 09:00:10	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x3071f1…
07-22 08:57:42	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	Yes	BUY	49	71¢	$35	0x60859e…
07-20 08:01:16	Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?	Yes	SELL	81	7¢	$5	0xc2c9d9…
07-19 17:54:31	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xf8c74d…
07-19 17:53:21	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xcfc0ec…
07-19 17:52:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	31	71¢	$22	0x6cf11d…
07-18 15:27:06	Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?	Yes	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xf28993…
07-18 15:11:55	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	SELL	61	45¢	$27	0xba8dc9…
07-18 15:11:37	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	70¢	$25	0x5788fd…
07-17 19:50:49	will xrp reach 1pt2 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	39	29¢	$11	0x067f9b…
07-17 19:50:25	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x3e642f…
07-17 19:49:58	Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x631725…
07-17 19:47:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	Yes	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x479114…
07-17 19:47:18	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0x19e73e…
07-17 19:46:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	95	77¢	$73	0x5cbd48…
07-17 19:45:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xe4e6f5…
07-17 19:45:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x060196…
07-15 15:37:38	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	SELL	54	43¢	$23	0xfa4bdf…
07-13 19:28:59	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	70¢	$40	0x12c4f9…
07-13 19:28:14	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	69	78¢	$54	0xccfa63…
07-13 19:24:14	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	Yes	BUY	72	62¢	$45	0x7a9de7…
07-13 19:22:14	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	61	66¢	$40	0x696f2a…
07-13 19:21:52	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	54	63¢	$34	0x4fa102…
07-06 06:51:28	will xrp reach 1pt2 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	39	73¢	$29	0x643f84…
07-06 06:48:52	Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x8cb21b…
07-06 06:47:47	Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	84¢	$41	0x094dfc…
07-05 21:45:32	Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?	Yes	SELL	38	27¢	$10	0x9114b8…
06-30 15:05:20	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	14	26¢	$4	0x7b12cb…
06-30 15:04:40	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	28	65¢	$18	0x60c21c…
06-30 15:03:28	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	52	5¢	$3	0x25e8cb…
06-29 07:23:07	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	37	40¢	$15	0xd2baf4…
06-29 07:23:01	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x8f2ca9…
06-27 18:40:44	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	45	79¢	$36	0x058e2b…
06-25 12:49:14	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x48b852…
06-25 06:09:40	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0x6a9f2e…
06-25 06:08:11	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x49df58…
06-25 06:07:29	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	52	77¢	$40	0x73d49d…