Extra-Small-Osprey — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.02K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.40K

Hit rate

89.9%

Resolved

426

Trades

5,660

lifetime

Volume

$1.56M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$275

Open exposure

$92.7K

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-19

last 09-23 21:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

57% 95% -$3,806

Politics

37% 95% +$2,195

Crypto

6% 100% +$529

Sports

0% 100% +$67

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 115 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+94,348	$90,575	98¢	$92.5K	+$1,934	09-17 18:23
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,188	$867	18¢	$208	-$659	09-15 19:07
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+0	-$123	96¢	$0	+$123	09-21 17:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	5	$319.9K	320,539	0	+320,539	Yes	+$641	06-17 02:09
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	36	$91.2K	91,614	0	+91,614	No	+$394	06-04 00:19
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	17	$90.8K	46,368	46,368	+0	No	-$1,442	07-07 17:01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	101	$90.6K	94,348	0	+94,348	open	—	09-17 18:23
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	64	$82.6K	43,135	43,135	+0	open	—	09-21 17:42
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	85	$78.2K	74,870	4,532	+70,337	Yes	+$432	07-02 00:45
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	15	$52.8K	52,850	38,000	+14,850	No	+$182	06-14 05:01
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	9	$50.3K	50,439	0	+50,439	No	+$92	06-22 05:07
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	56	$49.7K	49,351	1,010	+48,341	No	+$666	08-04 21:17
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	81	$47.5K	47,475	38,000	+9,475	No	+$178	06-11 18:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	22	$41.5K	41,786	0	+41,786	No	+$331	07-29 11:47
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	54	$36.6K	36,808	0	+36,808	Yes	+$249	06-21 12:08
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	28	$27.0K	27,362	0	+27,362	Yes	+$349	06-21 12:18
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	8	$22.4K	22,567	0	+22,567	Yes	+$210	09-23 09:29
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	34	$22.0K	23,189	1,500	+21,689	No	-$293	07-07 12:45
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	9	$21.1K	19,052	2,077	+16,974	No	+$52	07-07 02:45
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	12	$21.1K	21,034	38,000	-16,966	No	+$59	06-14 00:20
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	10	$20.4K	20,411	0	+20,411	Yes	+$26	06-21 12:44
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	10	$20.4K	20,435	0	+20,435	Yes	+$51	07-22 15:45
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	3	$20.2K	20,200	0	+20,200	Yes	+$40	06-06 05:17
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	18	$20.1K	20,000	38,000	-18,000	No	+$130	06-11 04:31
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 743	12	$19.5K	19,568	0	+19,568	Yes	+$77	07-07 13:05
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	15	$17.1K	17,035	38,000	-20,965	No	+$55	06-11 03:38
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	197	$17.0K	0	40,000	-40,000	Yes	-$23,005	06-25 15:00
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	27	$15.1K	15,115	38,000	-22,885	No	+$81	06-08 19:01
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	19	$15.1K	15,000	36,000	-21,000	No	+$161	06-08 02:54
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	24	$14.5K	14,142	40,300	-26,158	No	+$71	06-20 21:13
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	15	$13.2K	13,088	38,000	-24,912	No	+$120	06-11 04:27
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	21	$12.5K	7,223	8,723	-1,500	Yes	+$535	08-04 20:28
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	36	$12.1K	12,082	37,000	-24,918	No	+$49	06-01 13:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-23 21:32:55	will xi jinping visit us by september 24	Yes	BUY	69	100¢	$69	0x54eab3…
09-23 21:32:52	will xi jinping visit us by september 24	Yes	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0xf74a4c…
09-23 09:29:05	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	738	100¢	$736	0xd83d37…
09-23 09:16:19	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	1,500	100¢	$1,497	0xf2b534…
09-23 09:16:08	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,994	0x8a24b9…
09-23 09:11:05	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x2f0186…
09-23 09:09:34	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	7,702	100¢	$7,679	0xe62f4d…
09-23 03:52:28	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	2,400	100¢	$2,395	0x6873c5…
09-23 01:34:58	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	4,019	98¢	$3,938	0x9c9507…
09-21 17:42:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	6,323	96¢	$6,083	0xe3494b…
09-21 17:39:16	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xcba7de…
09-21 15:50:40	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0xf97618…
09-21 13:49:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x62a246…
09-21 13:28:24	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,955	0xb71013…
09-21 13:05:17	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xfa4521…
09-21 12:44:00	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x5bcf28…
09-21 12:17:39	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x8eb1e0…
09-21 11:47:21	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x10489a…
09-21 11:34:32	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd727c4…
09-21 11:33:41	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xb999d3…
09-21 11:33:41	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x527b91…
09-21 11:33:41	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x00a604…
09-21 11:33:38	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x24b68f…
09-21 11:33:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xd170f3…
09-21 11:33:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xc9f2ef…
09-21 11:33:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x9c19ea…
09-21 11:33:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x71e18a…
09-21 11:33:35	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x9edd68…
09-21 11:33:35	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x733752…
09-21 11:33:35	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	442	99¢	$440	0x425072…
09-21 11:33:35	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x277bfd…
09-21 11:33:35	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1d3cb8…
09-21 11:33:33	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbc162a…
09-21 11:33:33	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x8f9926…
09-21 11:30:42	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x28a4fe…
09-21 11:25:17	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$40	0x665771…
09-21 11:19:48	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xef937f…
09-21 10:55:27	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x2615c3…
09-21 10:30:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x72c7a8…
09-21 10:05:08	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	4,992	96¢	$4,802	0x12984f…
09-20 03:09:04	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	234	95¢	$222	0x9c1585…
09-19 22:00:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	259	86¢	$223	0xe94792…
09-19 21:59:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	176	86¢	$152	0x85240b…
09-19 20:58:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,006	86¢	$866	0x81bf37…
09-19 09:33:52	Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xcd1ff7…
09-19 09:26:22	Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	494	99¢	$489	0x5b6a81…
09-19 04:49:39	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x685687…
09-19 04:23:13	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$928	0x1c4440…
09-18 08:45:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	90¢	$101	0x308f3a…
09-18 08:12:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xb77a6e…
09-18 07:44:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	79	90¢	$71	0x5f1ead…
09-18 05:03:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0xf7c44e…
09-18 05:03:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0xd37b61…
09-18 04:34:49	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	220	90¢	$198	0x714e5d…
09-18 04:34:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	709	90¢	$639	0xd0059d…
09-18 02:09:22	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	20,000	96¢	$19,180	0x3d5d88…
09-17 18:23:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	13,000	96¢	$12,480	0x55defb…
09-17 06:48:54	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	11,690	96¢	$11,164	0xf7393e…
09-16 15:38:09	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	8,000	95¢	$7,632	0x64448e…
09-16 00:21:52	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	19,637	96¢	$18,812	0x111c0c…
09-16 00:14:57	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xb799bc…
09-15 22:44:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2,567	96¢	$2,464	0x1782ec…
09-15 22:13:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	363	96¢	$348	0x518b55…
09-15 20:28:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xdb3328…
09-15 20:27:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	3,787	96¢	$3,636	0x307ab9…
09-15 20:27:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	162	96¢	$155	0xe13bb8…
09-15 20:26:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	165	96¢	$158	0xabbe52…
09-15 20:25:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	169	96¢	$162	0x6a5bf0…
09-15 20:24:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	172	96¢	$165	0xa6bc9e…
09-15 20:24:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	176	96¢	$169	0xa42103…
09-15 20:21:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	179	96¢	$172	0x3729ab…
09-15 20:20:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	183	96¢	$176	0x919dba…
09-15 20:19:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	188	96¢	$180	0x4f9445…
09-15 20:18:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	191	96¢	$183	0x15e396…
09-15 19:07:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	188	30¢	$57	0xa985d3…
09-15 18:30:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0xf12e0c…
09-15 18:19:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$37	0x2da12b…
09-15 18:19:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x0cef4c…
09-15 18:00:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0xc1c146…
09-15 16:57:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x161a04…
09-15 16:36:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	252	96¢	$242	0x35bf6f…
09-15 15:50:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfe6354…
09-15 14:49:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0xd65c90…
09-15 14:24:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x018741…
09-15 14:10:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x61ffb7…
09-15 13:54:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7,882	96¢	$7,566	0xc9a6b6…
09-15 12:10:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xdfe53a…
09-15 12:08:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x5a87ec…
09-15 11:42:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	180	96¢	$173	0x0324a1…
09-15 11:42:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	504	96¢	$484	0x147bb6…
09-15 11:27:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	190	96¢	$183	0xda8d05…
09-15 11:27:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x5e2248…
09-15 11:26:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	197	96¢	$189	0x5b3fc1…
09-15 11:26:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	201	96¢	$193	0x2c85f6…
09-15 11:26:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	205	96¢	$197	0x563697…
09-15 11:24:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$55	0xe409b1…
09-15 11:24:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	59	96¢	$56	0xba1c0e…
09-15 11:24:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	60	96¢	$57	0x2cd55a…
09-15 11:23:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	62	96¢	$59	0x7f4bf7…
09-15 11:22:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	63	96¢	$60	0x511279…