Jaded-Announcement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$954

Unrealized P&L

+$98

Hit rate

38.5%

Resolved

124

Trades

690

lifetime

Volume

$16.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$407

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 14:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Sports

44% 47% -$731

Other

37% 26% -$154

Tech

9% 100% +$9

Crypto

6% 37% +$15

Politics

4% 33% -$93

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+400	$373	98¢	$393	+$20	06-09 23:24
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+400	$27	2¢	$7	-$20	06-09 22:55
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	-200	-$104	3¢	$-7	+$98	05-07 11:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	58	$2.5K	4,030	4,467	-437	Yes	-$250	01-19 00:16
will the denver broncos win super bowl 2026	10	$2.0K	10,200	10,100	+100	No	-$138	01-18 13:12
will nvidia be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 491	2	$1.5K	1,209	320	+889	Yes	+$9	01-10 19:51
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	21	$1.2K	935	1,035	-100	Yes	+$209	07-30 00:29
will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	11	$689	2,302	1,087	+1,214	No	-$239	01-16 01:27
nfl buf den 2026 01 17	1	$498	1,038	0	+1,038	Broncos	-$498	01-17 17:33
nfl buf jax 2026 01 11	1	$485	1,031	0	+1,031	Bills	+$546	01-11 05:44
will the jacksonville jaguars win super bowl 2026	154	$459	7,463	0	+7,463	No	-$459	01-11 00:52
us strike on somalia by january 31 338	9	$407	203	300	-97	Yes	-$25	01-18 13:35
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	12	$400	800	0	+800	open	—	06-09 23:24
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	8	$372	645	645	+0	Yes	+$71	06-18 19:10
will primate opening weekend box office be between 11m and 13m	4	$353	396	0	+396	Yes	+$43	01-11 19:39
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$344	152	620	-467	No	+$284	06-14 00:57
will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	6	$328	1,405	1,405	+0	No	-$72	06-04 03:34
will avatar fire and ash 3rd weekend box office be less than 40m	7	$240	400	300	+100	No	-$140	01-05 03:01
Fed rate hike in 2026?	6	$226	200	200	+0	Yes	-$30	06-05 16:09
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?	20	$209	300	292	+8	Yes	-$34	06-07 19:50
Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	6	$203	300	0	+300	Yes	-$203	09-16 17:08
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$201	200	200	+0	No	-$23	08-31 18:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$193	100	100	+0	No	$0	09-01 04:48
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	8	$191	203	103	+100	No	+$33	03-16 19:49
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	12	$190	100	300	-200	open	—	05-07 11:36
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	6	$185	132	132	-0	Yes	+$24	01-18 13:34
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt4 by march 31	5	$184	141	141	+0	Yes	-$10	03-23 07:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	9	$158	268	268	+0	Yes	-$27	06-15 13:13
will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	8	$150	833	833	+0	No	+$50	08-09 22:22
Ravens vs. Bills	18	$150	200	200	+0	Bills	+$2	10-31 14:59
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	2	$141	100	100	+0	Yes	-$1	05-30 15:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$139	126	240	-114	Yes	-$66	05-11 20:56
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.40% (HIGH) in April?	2	$114	100	100	+0	Yes	+$46	04-18 18:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 14:59:37	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x004f65…
10-27 20:28:17	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	44	37¢	$16	0x423dcd…
10-27 19:42:08	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x470ae4…
10-27 17:13:59	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0xc104bd…
10-27 15:47:23	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x2c5a59…
10-27 15:30:59	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	24	37¢	$9	0x1519e4…
10-27 15:16:15	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x79d5b9…
10-27 12:26:30	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x2f2734…
10-27 12:26:29	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x170dcf…
10-27 07:56:29	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x50d46e…
10-27 07:10:51	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	7	37¢	$2	0xa5c42c…
10-27 06:47:48	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xbcbdff…
10-27 06:12:33	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xac964d…
10-27 04:39:38	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x862378…
10-27 04:20:09	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x42ed59…
10-27 04:05:39	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0xa81b98…
10-27 03:51:00	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xfcdfe8…
10-27 02:34:11	Ravens vs. Bills	Ravens	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x3e723a…
10-26 02:40:41	Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)	Seahawks	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0xd0fe26…
10-26 02:36:12	Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)	Seahawks	SELL	9	51¢	$5	0x41cb58…
10-26 02:33:45	Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)	Seahawks	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6a01c7…
09-16 17:12:06	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	38	24¢	$9	0xf12f08…
09-16 17:08:54	Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	No	BUY	150	70¢	$105	0x0ec4f2…
09-16 16:59:56	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	SELL	99	11¢	$10	0x5d77aa…
09-16 16:59:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?	Yes	SELL	369	6¢	$23	0x3386c1…
09-16 16:36:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	118	16¢	$19	0x47c72f…
09-16 16:36:26	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	Yes	BUY	31	14¢	$4	0x69b140…
09-16 16:35:05	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	419	12¢	$50	0x83d180…
09-16 16:33:05	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x47ead8…
09-16 14:25:00	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x3a26ec…
09-16 13:53:46	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x239151…
09-16 13:53:46	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x15e6e4…
09-16 13:53:45	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xd9954f…
09-16 13:53:45	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x85eb1b…
09-16 13:53:42	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x944f86…
09-16 04:00:12	Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	No	BUY	25	62¢	$15	0xeab408…
09-16 04:00:09	Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	No	BUY	15	62¢	$9	0x1421ca…
09-16 01:35:00	Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	No	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x39d4b1…
09-14 21:37:19	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0x97f7e1…
09-14 19:09:09	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	34	5¢	$2	0xfb9f9c…
09-14 19:09:09	Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	84	16¢	$13	0x91ecd6…
09-14 19:04:46	Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x4be3ea…
09-14 19:04:45	Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0xe3bd56…
09-14 15:50:43	Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	No	BUY	26	67¢	$17	0x9b78e1…
09-14 00:30:39	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xf5a4e2…
09-14 00:30:39	Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x66fe1e…
09-14 00:30:30	Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd15d09…
09-13 22:40:42	Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x283114…
09-06 23:07:22	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6?	Yes	SELL	416	2¢	$7	0xd559f1…
09-06 23:06:51	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6?	Yes	SELL	140	2¢	$3	0xa6cbf4…
09-06 23:06:07	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6?	Yes	SELL	444	2¢	$11	0x7a5743…
09-06 23:03:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 August 31-September 6?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$14	0x3f5f09…
09-06 21:23:04	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$6	0x9856c4…
09-06 21:22:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 August 31-September 6?	Yes	BUY	250	3¢	$8	0xb983e5…
09-06 21:21:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 August 31-September 6?	Yes	BUY	750	3¢	$22	0xfb5989…
09-06 21:21:37	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6?	Yes	BUY	750	3¢	$22	0x4aa64f…
09-01 04:48:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xa3608f…
08-31 18:32:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0xd43fab…
08-29 17:57:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x5a94ad…
08-29 15:10:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x5d43ee…
08-09 22:22:57	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	SELL	407	11¢	$45	0xb07b85…
08-09 22:22:33	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x582f1e…
08-09 22:18:03	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	SELL	417	13¢	$54	0xe1fec4…
08-09 20:48:48	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x37366a…
08-09 20:48:48	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	150	6¢	$9	0x2c64a9…
08-09 20:23:52	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xe3b4fa…
08-09 20:10:19	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	415	6¢	$25	0x1bfa32…
08-09 20:08:55	will bitcoin reach 66k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xe9ae5a…
08-01 13:49:08	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0xba5552…
07-30 00:29:57	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	No	SELL	414	61¢	$252	0x5d26a0…
07-21 21:39:03	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	No	SELL	100	74¢	$74	0xc39334…
07-20 20:51:25	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	No	SELL	190	74¢	$140	0xb70020…
07-20 12:32:22	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	No	SELL	300	75¢	$225	0xb6937d…
07-19 21:22:58	will bitcoin reach 66k july 13 19 2026	Yes	BUY	214	3¢	$6	0x8323e4…
07-19 15:20:25	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	47	42¢	$19	0xe90180…
07-15 05:08:23	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x278c85…
07-14 21:41:32	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	91	6¢	$5	0x3150cf…
07-14 21:36:41	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x1bf4e5…
07-14 21:36:41	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x0d2f5e…
07-14 21:36:40	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0xe029c9…
07-14 21:36:40	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	86	6¢	$5	0x811fda…
07-14 21:36:40	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	85	6¢	$5	0x03b788…
07-14 21:36:16	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	56	6¢	$3	0x95bb67…
07-14 21:36:14	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	45	6¢	$3	0xe6aa18…
07-14 21:36:14	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0xdf7762…
07-14 21:35:08	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0xca26db…
07-14 12:35:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x39bcc3…
07-14 10:29:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xcae4e7…
07-13 00:40:40	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	SELL	75	48¢	$36	0x283509…
07-12 23:46:59	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	BUY	71	51¢	$36	0x52e7fb…
07-12 22:12:22	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x14f87c…
07-12 22:12:07	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	Yes	SELL	1,412	0¢	$4	0x876e5f…
07-12 22:06:11	will bitcoin reach 66k july 6 12 2026	Yes	SELL	312	1¢	$4	0xf300c0…
07-12 21:11:34	will bitcoin reach 66k july 6 12 2026	Yes	BUY	312	3¢	$9	0x2adc62…
07-12 20:10:35	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0xb48e01…
07-12 20:00:31	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1,111	0¢	$1	0x32f563…
07-12 19:37:38	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x1571b5…
07-12 19:37:25	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x3eec13…
07-12 19:29:14	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	Yes	BUY	89	0¢	$0	0x4c24a0…
07-12 19:21:23	will bitcoin dip to 60k july 6 12 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4ba4d8…