Realized P&L
-$12.1K
Unrealized P&L
-$312
Hit rate
55.7%
Resolved
368
Trades
8,137
lifetime
Volume
$724.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$89
Open exposure
$16.0K
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-08
last 10-26 22:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Politics
50% 39% +$6,325
Other
39% 27% -$6,828
Crypto
4% 0% -$5,959
Tech
4% 29% -$2,907
Sports
3% 33% -$2,718
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$48
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
38 active days in 12wk • peak 109 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No +3,999 $1,873 52¢ $2.1K +$227 09-15 04:23
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No +2,000 $640 97¢ $1.9K +$1,309 09-10 15:02
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? No +2,000 $1,120 82¢ $1.6K +$530 09-11 03:58
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +2,000 $1,694 81¢ $1.6K -$81 08-29 13:50
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +1,757 $1,201 82¢ $1.4K +$249 10-26 21:51
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? No +4,000 $740 25¢ $982 +$242 09-18 18:41
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -1,000 -$930 94¢ $-935 -$5 09-22 18:08
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No -1,000 -$759 92¢ $-918 -$159 06-29 13:39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,000 $740 78¢ $785 +$45 08-27 23:52
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes +1,000 $310 66¢ $665 +$355 05-12 15:59
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +2,000 $930 26¢ $510 -$420 09-08 18:00
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +1,000 $410 44¢ $435 +$25 08-27 23:43
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,000 $1,560 15¢ $435 -$1,125 09-22 11:46
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +1,000 $110 43¢ $430 +$320 09-17 20:50
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? No +4,000 $732 8¢ $340 -$392 09-22 18:42
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +2,000 $460 14¢ $270 -$190 09-13 07:27
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No +2,000 $280 11¢ $220 -$60 09-11 23:13
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes -212 -$104 81¢ $-172 -$68 07-13 17:41
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +2,000 $320 4¢ $81 -$239 08-24 23:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? Yes +4,000 $400 0¢ $20 -$380 09-22 10:22
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes +1,000 $580 0¢ $1 -$578 09-11 01:35
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +0 -$84 98¢ $0 +$84 05-17 07:53