Phony-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$356

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.2%

Resolved

887

Trades

8,566

lifetime

Volume

$118.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 08-14 16:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 51% +$356

Politics

0% — —

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 553 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET	4	$995	632	632	+0	Up	+$246	05-06 19:57
btc updown 15m 1769178600	3	$842	425	425	+0	open	—	01-23 14:41
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	3	$812	734	734	+0	Up	$-188	05-14 00:06
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$604	407	407	+0	open	—	05-15 19:41
btc updown 5m 1772983200	1	$600	612	0	+612	open	—	03-08 15:24
btc updown 5m 1772999400	1	$600	612	0	+612	open	—	03-08 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET	2	$557	361	361	+0	Down	+$87	05-05 07:52
bitcoin up or down january 25 5am et	6	$550	504	53	+451	open	—	01-25 10:53
btc updown 15m 1769445000	1	$500	501	0	+501	open	—	01-26 16:44
btc updown 5m 1771274100	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-16 20:39
btc updown 5m 1771276500	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-16 21:20
btc updown 5m 1771627800	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-20 22:54
bitcoin up or down january 27 4pm et	3	$500	501	0	+501	open	—	01-27 21:59
btc updown 15m 1769434200	1	$500	500	0	+500	open	—	01-26 13:45
btc updown 15m 1770670800	1	$500	500	0	+500	open	—	02-09 21:13
btc updown 15m 1769470200	3	$499	501	0	+501	open	—	01-26 23:44
btc updown 4h 1785513600	2	$454	295	295	+0	open	—	07-31 19:38
bitcoin up or down july 27 2026 11pm et	2	$445	706	0	+706	open	—	07-28 03:00
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	3	$426	335	335	+0	open	—	05-22 23:41
bitcoin up or down january 22 2pm et	3	$405	206	206	+0	open	—	01-22 19:47
btc updown 5m 1771273200	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	02-16 20:24
xrp updown 15m 1776393000	1	$400	601	0	+601	open	—	04-17 02:30
btc updown 4h 1770210000	1	$400	401	0	+401	open	—	02-04 16:46
btc updown 15m 1769290200	1	$400	402	0	+402	open	—	01-24 21:44
btc updown 15m 1771958700	2	$398	206	206	+0	open	—	02-24 18:59
btc updown 5m 1781016600	1	$395	690	0	+690	open	—	06-09 14:50
bitcoin up or down january 22 9am et	4	$395	206	206	+0	open	—	01-22 14:56
btc updown 5m 1771628700	1	$392	396	0	+396	open	—	02-20 23:09
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	2	$356	200	200	+0	Up	+$40	05-13 16:56
xrp updown 15m 1776749400	3	$337	559	0	+559	open	—	04-21 05:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 16:45:13	btc updown 15m 1786725900	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x77b20d…
08-14 15:40:10	btc updown 5m 1786722000	Down	BUY	11	60¢	$6	0x2e8062…
08-14 15:35:12	btc updown 5m 1786721700	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe2926a…
08-14 15:00:12	bitcoin up or down august 14 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x69dd61…
08-14 13:00:16	xrp up or down august 14 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x60c031…
08-14 12:00:18	btc updown 4h 1786708800	Up	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0xb713a6…
08-14 12:00:15	sol updown 4h 1786708800	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x7ff979…
08-14 08:00:16	btc updown 4h 1786694400	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x04b830…
08-14 08:00:13	eth updown 4h 1786694400	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb584b0…
08-14 00:00:16	sol updown 4h 1786665600	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb9cdf5…
08-13 23:05:21	btc updown 5m 1786662300	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x97e907…
08-13 18:00:18	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xbfa512…
08-13 16:00:16	btc updown 4h 1786636800	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5a4b38…
08-13 15:00:12	bitcoin up or down august 13 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x88745d…
08-13 12:00:15	xrp up or down august 13 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x12b862…
08-13 12:00:13	solana up or down august 13 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x96ef27…
08-13 12:00:12	ethereum up or down august 13 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xeb1f95…
08-13 11:35:13	sol updown 5m 1786620900	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x9e16b2…
08-13 04:00:12	btc updown 4h 1786593600	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x42b1ee…
08-13 03:15:13	btc updown 15m 1786590900	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe009d1…
08-12 20:00:22	btc updown 4h 1786564800	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x88ec7c…
08-12 20:00:13	ethereum up or down august 12 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x646ceb…
08-12 15:00:12	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x3fc0dd…
08-12 12:00:12	eth updown 4h 1786536000	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x437dff…
08-12 12:00:12	bitcoin up or down august 12 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x2479cd…
08-12 09:40:31	btc updown 5m 1786527600	Down	BUY	36	63¢	$22	0xf839da…
08-12 09:35:10	btc updown 5m 1786527300	Down	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x5c7319…
08-12 09:30:15	btc updown 5m 1786527000	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xc4f748…
08-12 08:00:12	eth updown 4h 1786521600	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xae8285…
08-12 00:00:18	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf05560…
08-11 22:00:13	solana up or down august 11 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	24	47¢	$11	0x973e4d…
08-11 22:00:12	ethereum up or down august 11 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x07a1d1…
08-11 21:00:13	solana up or down august 11 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x46d7a9…
08-11 20:10:31	sol updown 5m 1786479000	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xd1049f…
08-11 20:10:31	sol updown 5m 1786479000	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xb0bd84…
08-11 20:10:31	sol updown 5m 1786479000	Down	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0x8b10c6…
08-11 20:10:31	sol updown 5m 1786479000	Down	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x6e4fa1…
08-11 20:10:31	sol updown 5m 1786479000	Down	BUY	23	63¢	$15	0x106b90…
08-11 20:10:12	sol updown 5m 1786479000	Down	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0xbd66e9…
08-11 20:05:15	sol updown 5m 1786478700	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xdcbfc7…
08-11 20:00:15	btc updown 4h 1786478400	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x1dab6d…
08-11 20:00:13	sol updown 5m 1786478400	Down	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xc510c3…
08-11 20:00:13	solana up or down august 11 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x699944…
08-11 19:55:13	sol updown 5m 1786478100	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x3dd70d…
08-11 19:45:12	btc updown 5m 1786477500	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7d7ff2…
08-11 17:00:12	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0xa5b098…
08-11 16:01:07	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xd768e2…
08-11 15:01:25	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x637552…
08-11 12:16:43	btc updown 5m 1786450500	Down	BUY	12	63¢	$8	0xa39b66…
08-11 12:16:42	btc updown 5m 1786450500	Down	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x6ffd3b…
08-11 12:10:12	btc updown 5m 1786450200	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0d4c50…
08-11 12:00:12	ethereum up or down august 11 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0x1bcf24…
08-11 11:00:10	ethereum up or down august 11 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$4	0x929e52…
08-11 10:00:13	bitcoin up or down august 11 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x41795f…
08-11 10:00:12	ethereum up or down august 11 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcce192…
08-11 08:00:22	xrp up or down august 11 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x3d3710…
08-11 08:00:15	solana up or down august 11 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe61051…
08-11 05:00:15	btc updown 5m 1786424400	Up	BUY	236	26¢	$61	0xa93f70…
08-11 04:55:13	btc updown 5m 1786424100	Up	BUY	162	45¢	$73	0x3a3057…
08-11 04:50:13	btc updown 5m 1786423800	Up	BUY	81	56¢	$45	0x36fa72…
08-11 04:45:13	btc updown 5m 1786423500	Up	BUY	29	62¢	$18	0xda0f35…
08-11 04:40:13	btc updown 5m 1786423200	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xecac47…
08-11 04:35:13	btc updown 5m 1786422900	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x00f009…
08-11 03:25:16	btc updown 5m 1786418700	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x512f72…
08-11 01:00:15	solana up or down august 10 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x001555…
08-11 00:00:12	btc updown 4h 1786406400	Up	BUY	41	53¢	$21	0x97ffac…
08-10 20:45:15	btc updown 15m 1786394700	Down	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x6df2d5…
08-10 20:30:21	btc updown 15m 1786393800	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x911970…
08-10 20:00:15	btc updown 4h 1786392000	Up	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0xc034c5…
08-10 19:35:16	eth updown 5m 1786390500	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xcf8212…
08-10 19:35:16	btc updown 5m 1786390500	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x54a7cc…
08-10 17:00:22	sol updown 15m 1786381200	Up	BUY	12	63¢	$8	0x87c9e0…
08-10 17:00:15	solana up or down august 10 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb4fcbc…
08-10 17:00:12	btc updown 15m 1786381200	Up	BUY	25	57¢	$15	0xdb9be8…
08-10 17:00:12	ethereum up or down august 10 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x4d031f…
08-10 16:45:18	sol updown 15m 1786380300	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xbb34f0…
08-10 16:45:12	btc updown 15m 1786380300	Up	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xe4b559…
08-10 16:30:13	btc updown 15m 1786379400	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6c69ff…
08-10 16:00:16	btc updown 4h 1786377600	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xed3f45…
08-10 16:00:13	solana up or down august 10 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x5e15cf…
08-10 16:00:12	ethereum up or down august 10 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2c44c6…
08-06 10:05:12	sol updown 5m 1786010700	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x057a1d…
08-06 04:00:14	btc updown 4h 1785988800	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6902e6…
08-06 01:45:21	xrp updown 5m 1785980700	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x607b4e…
08-05 23:00:14	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb8e142…
08-05 23:00:14	solana up or down august 5 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0xb72889…
08-05 22:00:18	solana up or down august 5 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4147f6…
08-05 20:00:15	eth updown 4h 1785960000	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb44277…
08-05 20:00:12	btc updown 4h 1785960000	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x59130d…
08-05 20:00:12	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x0e59d7…
08-05 16:03:59	sol updown 4h 1785945600	Down	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xe8fcc4…
08-05 16:00:17	xrp updown 4h 1785945600	Up	BUY	25	55¢	$13	0xd3cb5c…
08-05 16:00:15	sol updown 4h 1785945600	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7d8a40…
08-05 14:00:12	ethereum up or down august 5 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfe5740…
08-05 14:00:12	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x89cc26…
08-05 12:00:20	btc updown 4h 1785931200	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x025714…
08-05 12:00:15	xrp updown 4h 1785931200	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x325571…
08-05 12:00:15	xrp up or down august 5 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2f81ed…
08-05 11:00:21	xrp up or down august 5 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xfc8975…
08-05 09:00:20	bitcoin up or down august 5 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x2bf90e…