Phony-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.06K

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

78.1%

Resolved

6,526

Trades

9,303

lifetime

Volume

$126.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$44

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-28 12:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 206 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 65% +$2,081

Politics

0% 33% -$4

Other

0% 30% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down		+50	$30	88¢	$44	+$14	10-28 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET	4	$995	632	632	+0	Up	+$246	05-06 19:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 14:30 UTC	3	$842	425	425	+0	Down	+$2	01-23 14:41
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	3	$812	734	734	+0	Up	-$188	05-14 00:06
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$604	407	407	+0	Up	+$115	05-15 19:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 15:20 UTC	1	$600	612	0	+612	Down	+$12	03-08 15:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 19:50 UTC	1	$600	612	0	+612	Down	+$12	03-08 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET	2	$557	361	361	+0	Down	+$87	05-05 07:52
bitcoin up or down january 25 5am et	6	$550	504	53	+451	Up	+$1	01-25 10:53
Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	15	$500	824	0	+824	Down	-$500	10-07 12:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 16:30 UTC	1	$500	501	0	+501	Down	+$1	01-26 16:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 21:15 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	02-16 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:35 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	02-16 20:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 22:50 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Up	+$5	02-20 22:54
bitcoin up or down january 27 4pm et	3	$500	501	0	+501	Down	+$1	01-27 21:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 13:30 UTC	1	$500	500	0	+500	Up	+$1	01-26 13:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 21:00 UTC	1	$500	500	0	+500	Down	+$1	02-09 21:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 23:30 UTC	3	$499	501	0	+501	Up	+$1	01-26 23:44
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-31 16:00 UTC	2	$454	295	295	+0	Up	+$131	07-31 19:38
bitcoin up or down july 27 2026 11pm et	2	$445	706	0	+706	Up	+$261	07-28 03:00
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	3	$426	335	335	+0	Down	+$58	05-22 23:41
bitcoin up or down january 22 2pm et	3	$405	206	206	+0	Up	+$5	01-22 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:20 UTC	1	$400	404	0	+404	Up	+$4	02-16 20:24
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-17 02:30 UTC	1	$400	601	0	+601	Up	+$201	04-17 02:30
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-04 13:00 UTC	1	$400	401	0	+401	Down	+$1	02-04 16:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 21:30 UTC	1	$400	402	0	+402	Up	+$2	01-24 21:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 18:45 UTC	2	$398	206	206	+0	Up	-$2	02-24 18:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 14:50 UTC	1	$395	690	0	+690	Up	+$295	06-09 14:50
bitcoin up or down january 22 9am et	4	$395	206	206	+0	Down	-$5	01-22 14:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 23:05 UTC	1	$392	396	0	+396	Down	+$4	02-20 23:09
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	2	$356	200	200	+0	Up	+$40	05-13 16:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 12:01:32	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x62e8e6…
10-28 12:01:32	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x3d5025…
10-28 12:01:02	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x68360e…
10-28 12:01:02	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x064353…
10-28 10:00:13	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x705378…
10-28 08:00:31	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x55527b…
10-28 08:00:16	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	31	47¢	$15	0x121ff4…
10-28 08:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	80	47¢	$38	0x3b9379…
10-28 04:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	49¢	$7	0x79894a…
10-28 04:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x649f69…
10-28 04:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x888db9…
10-28 00:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x5e2ac8…
10-28 00:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	54¢	$9	0x44a72b…
10-28 00:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xa55a10…
10-27 20:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xfd9ee2…
10-27 20:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xae0b95…
10-27 20:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x600249…
10-27 16:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb736db…
10-26 16:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xd948fb…
10-23 00:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	228	53¢	$120	0x42420a…
10-22 20:26:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0x6e0f68…
10-22 20:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	286	57¢	$163	0x6ea453…
10-22 20:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	104	53¢	$55	0xff0a0a…
10-22 19:00:14	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xba88ad…
10-22 18:00:14	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x12c364…
10-22 16:00:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xa69798…
10-22 16:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xefc1af…
10-22 16:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	114	60¢	$69	0x681848…
10-22 16:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1f706c…
10-22 16:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	41	57¢	$24	0xa107e5…
10-22 12:00:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x938668…
10-22 12:00:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x655ad5…
10-22 12:00:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xfab60f…
10-22 12:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	32	56¢	$18	0xca4163…
10-22 12:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0xabf343…
10-22 12:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	39	56¢	$22	0x0334e0…
10-22 11:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x001515…
10-22 10:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0xd98d53…
10-22 09:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x4e6d9a…
10-22 09:00:12	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x375bfe…
10-22 09:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x274390…
10-22 08:00:18	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0xd58be2…
10-22 08:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x130600…
10-22 08:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x108aaf…
10-22 08:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc54736…
10-22 04:00:18	Solana Up or Down - October 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x8649a5…
10-22 04:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xff26ee…
10-22 04:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xb404dd…
10-22 03:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xac286e…
10-22 02:35:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0x4cf003…
10-22 02:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	63¢	$3	0x9ce088…
10-22 02:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x6b3d29…
10-22 02:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x42bea2…
10-22 02:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xf9b055…
10-22 02:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe8e15c…
10-22 00:00:18	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa853ea…
10-22 00:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4d31ac…
10-21 20:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0x35954f…
10-21 16:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xbf1072…
10-21 16:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x51403a…
10-21 16:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xe2b752…
10-21 15:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x6e519e…
10-21 12:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x8e9557…
10-21 12:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7b586d…
10-21 12:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x4b6fb9…
10-21 10:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf83a34…
10-21 00:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 20, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xab7205…
10-20 23:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xd0f6a8…
10-20 21:23:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0xff1c62…
10-20 21:15:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x647d28…
10-20 20:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x0609e0…
10-20 12:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9f8b78…
10-20 12:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x78f0af…
10-20 12:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x5ecfe8…
10-20 04:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6fdfa0…
10-20 04:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x403a85…
10-20 04:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x18077b…
10-20 01:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x2cbf37…
10-20 00:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x2b8340…
10-20 00:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa3f8dd…
10-20 00:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbe57b9…
10-19 23:00:12	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa4e8dd…
10-19 20:00:15	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x47772f…
10-19 20:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xe7a389…
10-19 20:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xb417da…
10-19 16:00:11	Solana Up or Down - October 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x613ba0…
10-19 16:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x560836…
10-19 16:00:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6b7784…
10-07 15:55:23	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3d8917…
10-07 12:00:52	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	119	63¢	$75	0x89fd7b…
10-07 12:00:38	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	52	63¢	$33	0xfd6e54…
10-07 12:00:32	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x951e5c…
10-07 12:00:22	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	7	63¢	$5	0x785f30…
10-07 12:00:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xbb3323…
10-07 12:00:19	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x589270…
10-07 12:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	115	63¢	$72	0x79b5ca…
10-07 12:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x69b09c…
10-07 12:00:17	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	180	63¢	$113	0x4e6dd5…
10-07 12:00:16	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x0230cd…
10-07 12:00:14	Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xb455b5…