Phony-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$356

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.2%

Resolved

887

Trades

8,325

lifetime

Volume

$114.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-27 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 51% +$356

Politics

0% — —

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 553 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET	4	$995	632	632	+0	Up	+$246	05-06 19:57
btc updown 15m 1769178600	3	$842	425	425	+0	open	—	01-23 14:41
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	3	$812	734	734	+0	Up	$-188	05-14 00:06
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$604	407	407	+0	open	—	05-15 19:41
btc updown 5m 1772983200	1	$600	612	0	+612	open	—	03-08 15:24
btc updown 5m 1772999400	1	$600	612	0	+612	open	—	03-08 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET	2	$557	361	361	+0	Down	+$87	05-05 07:52
bitcoin up or down january 25 5am et	6	$550	504	53	+451	open	—	01-25 10:53
btc updown 15m 1769445000	1	$500	501	0	+501	open	—	01-26 16:44
btc updown 5m 1771627800	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-20 22:54
btc updown 5m 1771276500	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-16 21:20
btc updown 5m 1771274100	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-16 20:39
bitcoin up or down january 27 4pm et	3	$500	501	0	+501	open	—	01-27 21:59
btc updown 15m 1769434200	1	$500	500	0	+500	open	—	01-26 13:45
btc updown 15m 1770670800	1	$500	500	0	+500	open	—	02-09 21:13
btc updown 15m 1769470200	3	$499	501	0	+501	open	—	01-26 23:44
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	3	$426	335	335	+0	open	—	05-22 23:41
bitcoin up or down january 22 2pm et	3	$405	206	206	+0	open	—	01-22 19:47
btc updown 5m 1771273200	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	02-16 20:24
xrp updown 15m 1776393000	1	$400	601	0	+601	open	—	04-17 02:30
btc updown 4h 1770210000	1	$400	401	0	+401	open	—	02-04 16:46
btc updown 15m 1769290200	1	$400	402	0	+402	open	—	01-24 21:44
btc updown 15m 1771958700	2	$398	206	206	+0	open	—	02-24 18:59
btc updown 5m 1781016600	1	$395	690	0	+690	open	—	06-09 14:50
bitcoin up or down january 22 9am et	4	$395	206	206	+0	open	—	01-22 14:56
btc updown 5m 1771628700	1	$392	396	0	+396	open	—	02-20 23:09
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	2	$356	200	200	+0	Up	+$40	05-13 16:56
xrp updown 15m 1776749400	3	$337	559	0	+559	open	—	04-21 05:30
eth updown 15m 1776867300	3	$324	517	0	+517	open	—	04-22 14:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	9	$308	371	371	+0	open	—	05-15 23:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-27 20:20:13	eth updown 5m 1785183600	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x3c203e…
07-27 16:00:45	btc updown 4h 1785168000	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x1b334f…
07-24 13:07:15	xrp up or down july 24 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x782e5c…
07-24 13:06:54	solana up or down july 24 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x89a53b…
07-24 13:01:54	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	32	45¢	$14	0xf7e9cd…
07-24 13:00:15	xrp up or down july 24 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x88eee1…
07-24 13:00:13	solana up or down july 24 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xe5c36d…
07-24 13:00:10	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	32	57¢	$18	0xaed35f…
07-24 12:00:09	bitcoin up or down july 24 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xe1f94d…
07-23 15:00:15	xrp up or down july 23 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x1b8a60…
07-23 15:00:13	solana up or down july 23 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x9ecc1b…
07-23 15:00:12	ethereum up or down july 23 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x986a86…
07-23 14:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 23 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x59b857…
07-23 13:30:13	eth updown 15m 1784813400	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x533281…
07-23 13:30:12	eth updown 15m 1784813400	Up	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0xa14a73…
07-23 13:15:16	eth updown 15m 1784812500	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7ae01b…
07-23 12:45:12	btc updown 15m 1784810700	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$11	0x830383…
07-23 12:45:10	btc updown 15m 1784810700	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$11	0x7dca41…
07-23 12:30:13	btc updown 15m 1784809800	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x24908e…
07-23 02:30:15	sol updown 15m 1784773800	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x453a34…
07-23 02:00:16	xrp up or down july 22 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5c81d1…
07-23 02:00:13	ethereum up or down july 22 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe9ee92…
07-23 00:25:13	sol updown 5m 1784766300	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xa836e0…
07-22 20:47:00	bitcoin up or down july 22 2026 4pm et	Up	SELL	14	39¢	$5	0x8df722…
07-22 20:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 22 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x3d7288…
07-22 20:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 22 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x16df6c…
07-22 17:00:13	solana up or down july 22 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x95e475…
07-22 16:00:10	btc updown 4h 1784736000	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xaa3271…
07-22 14:10:10	eth updown 5m 1784729400	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x88da29…
07-22 14:09:49	btc updown 5m 1784729100	Down	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x2b7aa9…
07-22 14:07:45	btc updown 5m 1784729100	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x98096b…
07-22 14:07:13	btc updown 5m 1784729100	Down	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0x121e3d…
07-22 14:05:12	btc updown 5m 1784729100	Down	BUY	19	40¢	$7	0x05c634…
07-22 14:00:12	btc updown 5m 1784728800	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x05ceaf…
07-22 08:00:18	xrp updown 4h 1784707200	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xeeb895…
07-22 08:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 22 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0xad1b93…
07-22 08:00:13	btc updown 4h 1784707200	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x0df58e…
07-22 04:45:13	eth updown 5m 1784695500	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x1e6599…
07-22 00:20:13	eth updown 5m 1784679600	Down	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x8fe7ad…
07-22 00:20:12	xrp updown 5m 1784679600	Down	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0x67b436…
07-22 00:15:18	eth updown 5m 1784679300	Down	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0xf8b9cd…
07-22 00:15:18	eth updown 5m 1784679300	Down	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x19129c…
07-22 00:15:15	eth updown 5m 1784679300	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xe00c9f…
07-22 00:15:13	xrp updown 5m 1784679300	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xe46eb3…
07-22 00:15:13	eth updown 5m 1784679300	Down	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0x4b3ba9…
07-22 00:15:13	eth updown 5m 1784679300	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x169406…
07-22 00:10:30	eth updown 5m 1784679000	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xb0b79f…
07-22 00:10:28	xrp updown 5m 1784679000	Down	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0x79b24e…
07-22 00:10:28	xrp updown 5m 1784679000	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x289760…
07-21 23:00:16	xrp up or down july 21 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xa468e2…
07-21 23:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 21 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x83278d…
07-21 22:00:15	solana up or down july 21 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x07fa4c…
07-21 20:43:31	xrp updown 5m 1784666400	Up	BUY	53	63¢	$34	0xfb73b5…
07-21 20:43:30	xrp updown 5m 1784666400	Up	BUY	33	63¢	$21	0x376b7e…
07-21 20:35:13	xrp updown 5m 1784666100	Up	BUY	60	62¢	$37	0xdf384c…
07-21 20:35:13	xrp updown 5m 1784666100	Up	BUY	22	63¢	$14	0xda9b11…
07-21 20:35:13	xrp updown 5m 1784666100	Up	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x6be842…
07-21 20:35:13	xrp updown 5m 1784666100	Up	BUY	66	63¢	$42	0x695901…
07-21 20:35:13	xrp updown 5m 1784666100	Up	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x022df8…
07-21 20:30:15	xrp updown 5m 1784665800	Up	BUY	4	63¢	$2	0x68318b…
07-21 20:30:13	xrp updown 5m 1784665800	Up	BUY	18	63¢	$11	0xc5ca98…
07-21 20:30:13	xrp updown 5m 1784665800	Up	BUY	53	63¢	$34	0x72ff04…
07-21 20:25:12	xrp updown 5m 1784665500	Up	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0xdd8085…
07-21 20:20:13	xrp updown 5m 1784665200	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x30b64a…
07-21 20:00:16	xrp updown 4h 1784664000	Down	BUY	64	57¢	$37	0xdab2a9…
07-21 20:00:15	sol updown 4h 1784664000	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xcbde0d…
07-21 18:00:12	ethereum up or down july 21 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0xca828b…
07-21 18:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 21 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xb69cdc…
07-21 17:00:13	ethereum up or down july 21 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xc51794…
07-21 16:00:16	xrp updown 4h 1784649600	Down	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0x1623c2…
07-21 16:00:12	btc updown 4h 1784649600	Down	BUY	276	54¢	$149	0xec423b…
07-21 15:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 21 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	33	58¢	$19	0x392640…
07-21 12:00:15	btc updown 4h 1784635200	Down	BUY	107	52¢	$56	0xec0f0a…
07-21 12:00:15	xrp updown 4h 1784635200	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe2ee87…
07-21 12:00:12	eth updown 4h 1784635200	Down	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x12dfd6…
07-21 11:10:13	btc updown 5m 1784632200	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xda600b…
07-21 10:35:12	btc updown 5m 1784630100	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x57be4b…
07-21 08:00:15	xrp up or down july 21 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x591797…
07-21 08:00:13	btc updown 4h 1784620800	Down	BUY	41	53¢	$22	0xed0705…
07-21 08:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 21 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x4d7ec9…
07-21 08:00:12	eth updown 4h 1784620800	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x467233…
07-21 04:00:13	btc updown 4h 1784606400	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x517a27…
07-20 20:00:18	xrp updown 4h 1784577600	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x10bb5a…
07-20 18:00:16	xrp up or down july 20 2026 2pm et	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xd9c386…
07-20 16:00:18	btc updown 4h 1784563200	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x06fb10…
07-17 21:22:42	btc updown 4h 1784318400	Down	SELL	16	51¢	$8	0xa49319…
07-17 21:22:36	btc updown 4h 1784318400	Down	SELL	30	52¢	$16	0xa6eb5d…
07-17 20:00:12	btc updown 4h 1784318400	Down	BUY	46	57¢	$26	0xea2ebd…
07-17 19:00:15	xrp up or down july 17 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x96e215…
07-17 19:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	236	61¢	$144	0x457f0f…
07-17 18:15:15	btc updown 15m 1784312100	Down	BUY	137	61¢	$83	0xb63c12…
07-17 18:00:16	xrp up or down july 17 2026 2pm et	Down	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0xe659d5…
07-17 18:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2pm et	Down	BUY	85	54¢	$46	0xb30b1d…
07-17 18:00:12	btc updown 15m 1784311200	Down	BUY	49	45¢	$22	0x5da245…
07-17 17:45:12	btc updown 15m 1784310300	Down	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x7f3753…
07-17 17:30:12	btc updown 15m 1784309400	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf746d3…
07-17 17:00:16	xrp up or down july 17 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x78a28d…
07-17 17:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	32	56¢	$18	0x7ae469…
07-17 16:00:12	btc updown 4h 1784304000	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xf6762f…
07-17 16:00:12	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xe45cd6…