Phony-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$356

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.2%

Resolved

887

Trades

8,127

lifetime

Volume

$112.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-03 17:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 51% +$356

Politics

0% — —

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 553 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET	4	$995	632	632	+0	Up	+$246	05-06 19:57
btc updown 15m 1769178600	3	$842	425	425	+0	open	—	01-23 14:41
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	3	$812	734	734	+0	Up	$-188	05-14 00:06
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$604	407	407	+0	open	—	05-15 19:41
btc updown 5m 1772983200	1	$600	612	0	+612	open	—	03-08 15:24
btc updown 5m 1772999400	1	$600	612	0	+612	open	—	03-08 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET	2	$557	361	361	+0	Down	+$87	05-05 07:52
bitcoin up or down january 25 5am et	6	$550	504	53	+451	open	—	01-25 10:53
btc updown 15m 1769445000	1	$500	501	0	+501	open	—	01-26 16:44
btc updown 5m 1771627800	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-20 22:54
btc updown 5m 1771274100	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-16 20:39
btc updown 5m 1771276500	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-16 21:20
bitcoin up or down january 27 4pm et	3	$500	501	0	+501	open	—	01-27 21:59
btc updown 15m 1770670800	1	$500	500	0	+500	open	—	02-09 21:13
btc updown 15m 1769434200	1	$500	500	0	+500	open	—	01-26 13:45
btc updown 15m 1769470200	3	$499	501	0	+501	open	—	01-26 23:44
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	3	$426	335	335	+0	open	—	05-22 23:41
bitcoin up or down january 22 2pm et	3	$405	206	206	+0	open	—	01-22 19:47
btc updown 5m 1771273200	1	$400	404	0	+404	open	—	02-16 20:24
xrp updown 15m 1776393000	1	$400	601	0	+601	open	—	04-17 02:30
btc updown 4h 1770210000	1	$400	401	0	+401	open	—	02-04 16:46
btc updown 15m 1769290200	1	$400	402	0	+402	open	—	01-24 21:44
btc updown 15m 1771958700	2	$398	206	206	+0	open	—	02-24 18:59
btc updown 5m 1781016600	1	$395	690	0	+690	open	—	06-09 14:50
bitcoin up or down january 22 9am et	4	$395	206	206	+0	open	—	01-22 14:56
btc updown 5m 1771628700	1	$392	396	0	+396	open	—	02-20 23:09
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	2	$356	200	200	+0	Up	+$40	05-13 16:56
xrp updown 15m 1776749400	3	$337	559	0	+559	open	—	04-21 05:30
eth updown 15m 1776867300	3	$324	517	0	+517	open	—	04-22 14:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	9	$308	371	371	+0	open	—	05-15 23:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 17:52:50	xrp updown 4h 1783094400	Down	SELL	59	39¢	$23	0xe5c334…
07-03 16:00:16	xrp updown 4h 1783094400	Down	BUY	59	54¢	$32	0x165756…
07-03 15:54:29	eth updown 4h 1783080000	Down	SELL	151	100¢	$151	0xcd761a…
07-03 12:00:16	xrp updown 4h 1783080000	Down	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0xf38d6d…
07-03 12:00:16	btc updown 4h 1783080000	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x893a5c…
07-03 12:00:14	sol updown 4h 1783080000	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf1da31…
07-03 12:00:13	ethereum up or down july 3 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	155	57¢	$87	0xfc54e7…
07-03 12:00:13	eth updown 4h 1783080000	Down	BUY	151	60¢	$91	0xd693a3…
07-03 12:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 3 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x1b9859…
07-03 11:00:11	ethereum up or down july 3 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	64	59¢	$38	0xdcaf46…
07-03 10:00:11	ethereum up or down july 3 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x29cc37…
07-03 09:00:11	ethereum up or down july 3 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x23b43d…
07-03 08:00:16	xrp updown 4h 1783065600	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x9a8cc6…
07-03 08:00:14	xrp up or down july 3 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1da296…
07-03 08:00:11	eth updown 4h 1783065600	Down	BUY	63	53¢	$33	0xc634fe…
07-03 08:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 3 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x299cf2…
07-03 04:00:13	eth updown 4h 1783051200	Down	BUY	24	60¢	$15	0x7688fc…
07-03 00:00:14	sol updown 4h 1783036800	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x6150d2…
07-03 00:00:13	eth updown 4h 1783036800	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xa232d8…
07-02 20:45:14	btc updown 15m 1783025100	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x3b4fa0…
07-02 20:00:13	eth updown 4h 1783022400	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xf7c7b9…
07-02 16:00:14	btc updown 4h 1783008000	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa9e782…
07-02 14:00:16	xrp up or down july 2 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	161	61¢	$98	0xa9a3d7…
07-02 14:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 2 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	172	57¢	$98	0x0f3f9f…
07-02 14:00:11	ethereum up or down july 2 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	55	52¢	$29	0x667a07…
07-02 13:00:16	ethereum up or down july 2 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xbc4b23…
07-02 13:00:14	xrp up or down july 2 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	64	55¢	$35	0x3b87c7…
07-02 13:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 2 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	69	57¢	$39	0xc6b0c9…
07-02 12:00:19	solana up or down july 2 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	16	60¢	$10	0x714349…
07-02 12:00:14	xrp up or down july 2 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x7e0888…
07-02 12:00:13	solana up or down july 2 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x41dbaf…
07-02 12:00:11	ethereum up or down july 2 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2b651b…
07-02 12:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 2 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	24	60¢	$15	0x110a5c…
07-02 11:30:13	sol updown 15m 1782991800	Down	BUY	22	52¢	$11	0xd1eb5d…
07-02 11:15:13	sol updown 15m 1782990900	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x878bb8…
07-02 11:00:14	xrp up or down july 2 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x04889b…
07-02 11:00:13	solana up or down july 2 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x81d9a1…
07-02 11:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 2 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x8b115d…
07-02 10:55:11	sol updown 5m 1782989700	Down	BUY	54	56¢	$31	0x917d14…
07-02 10:50:10	sol updown 5m 1782989400	Down	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xa7922e…
07-02 10:45:17	sol updown 5m 1782989100	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb6e8fd…
07-02 08:00:13	ethereum up or down july 2 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xe3d2b5…
07-02 08:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 2 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x5e293a…
07-02 04:00:13	btc updown 15m 1782964800	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x8f5a5a…
07-02 04:00:13	btc updown 5m 1782964800	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x86a183…
07-02 01:40:19	sol updown 5m 1782956400	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x91346c…
07-02 01:40:11	btc updown 5m 1782956400	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x479178…
07-02 01:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 1 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x966985…
07-02 00:55:07	btc updown 15m 1782953100	Down	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x09015a…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xef7d1e…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xab87ac…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	86	60¢	$52	0xa85668…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x959ea4…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x91cbae…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x79b1df…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x6c48a9…
07-02 00:45:17	xrp updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x686b68…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x679e8f…
07-02 00:45:17	eth updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x0bbe26…
07-02 00:45:16	xrp updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xe48d18…
07-02 00:45:16	xrp updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0xcc5a80…
07-02 00:45:16	xrp updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x46aa8e…
07-02 00:45:16	xrp updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x444c8d…
07-02 00:45:16	xrp updown 15m 1782953100	Up	BUY	6	60¢	$3	0x2719da…
07-02 00:30:16	xrp updown 15m 1782952200	Up	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x57d92b…
07-02 00:30:16	btc updown 15m 1782952200	Up	BUY	62	55¢	$34	0x227253…
07-02 00:30:13	eth updown 15m 1782952200	Up	BUY	61	55¢	$33	0x956da9…
07-02 00:15:16	xrp updown 15m 1782951300	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4a7813…
07-02 00:15:13	btc updown 15m 1782951300	Up	BUY	23	57¢	$13	0x2e8645…
07-02 00:15:11	eth updown 15m 1782951300	Up	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x64a782…
07-02 00:00:16	btc updown 4h 1782950400	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xbc73dc…
07-02 00:00:11	eth updown 15m 1782950400	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7d98ed…
07-02 00:00:11	btc updown 15m 1782950400	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x533ba7…
07-01 23:48:38	btc updown 15m 1782949500	Up	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x3ef3dd…
07-01 23:45:13	btc updown 15m 1782949500	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4797ce…
07-01 16:00:11	ethereum up or down july 1 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfa10ee…
07-01 16:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 1 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xab3e43…
07-01 15:30:14	sol updown 15m 1782919800	Down	BUY	140	57¢	$80	0xa952f5…
07-01 15:15:13	sol updown 15m 1782918900	Down	BUY	60	54¢	$32	0x7e5a6c…
07-01 15:00:13	sol updown 15m 1782918000	Down	BUY	22	56¢	$12	0x7f75cf…
07-01 14:45:16	sol updown 15m 1782917100	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x2c12bc…
07-01 13:00:14	xrp up or down july 1 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xbc3636…
07-01 13:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 1 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	21	54¢	$11	0xfeae19…
07-01 12:00:11	bitcoin up or down july 1 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x892c7a…
07-01 12:00:10	btc updown 4h 1782907200	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xb3891d…
07-01 08:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 1 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xc4240a…
07-01 07:15:13	eth updown 15m 1782890100	Up	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0xababf8…
07-01 07:00:19	eth updown 15m 1782889200	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x17f6b3…
07-01 02:45:13	btc updown 5m 1782873900	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd9a6b7…
07-01 01:00:16	xrp up or down june 30 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	22	56¢	$12	0xe4f174…
07-01 00:01:47	eth updown 4h 1782864000	Up	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x5a632f…
07-01 00:01:23	xrp updown 4h 1782864000	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xf7998a…
07-01 00:00:17	xrp updown 4h 1782864000	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x2d000b…
07-01 00:00:16	xrp up or down june 30 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7548f4…
07-01 00:00:13	eth updown 4h 1782864000	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x8a3420…
06-30 23:00:13	bitcoin up or down june 30 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x520b47…
06-30 17:00:13	solana up or down june 30 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa0f32b…
06-30 16:00:41	btc updown 4h 1782835200	Up	BUY	303	57¢	$173	0xca413c…
06-30 16:00:40	sol updown 4h 1782835200	Up	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x96bae2…
06-30 13:00:14	xrp up or down june 30 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	60	57¢	$34	0xbf8887…