Phony-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$49

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

39.8%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

304

9,685 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$1.69K

$128.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 11-06 00:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 214 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 65% +$2,088

Politics

0% 33% -$4

Other

0% 30% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 195 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up		+16	$8	50¢	$8	+$0	11-06 01:00
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 7PM ET	Up		+2	$1	100¢	$2	+$1	11-06 00:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET	4	$995	632	632	+0	Up	+$246	05-06 19:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 14:30 UTC	3	$842	425	425	+0	Down	+$2	01-23 14:41
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	3	$812	734	734	+0	Up	-$188	05-14 00:06
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$604	407	407	+0	Up	+$115	05-15 19:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 15:20 UTC	1	$600	612	0	+612	Down	+$12	03-08 15:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 19:50 UTC	1	$600	612	0	+612	Down	+$12	03-08 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET	2	$557	361	361	+0	Down	+$87	05-05 07:52
bitcoin up or down january 25 5am et	6	$550	504	53	+451	Up	+$1	01-25 10:53
Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	15	$500	824	0	+824	Down	-$500	10-07 12:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 16:30 UTC	1	$500	501	0	+501	Down	+$1	01-26 16:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 21:15 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	02-16 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:35 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	02-16 20:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 22:50 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Up	+$5	02-20 22:54
bitcoin up or down january 27 4pm et	3	$500	501	0	+501	Down	+$1	01-27 21:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 13:30 UTC	1	$500	500	0	+500	Up	+$1	01-26 13:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 21:00 UTC	1	$500	500	0	+500	Down	+$1	02-09 21:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 23:30 UTC	3	$499	501	0	+501	Up	+$1	01-26 23:44
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-31 16:00 UTC	2	$454	295	295	+0	Up	+$131	07-31 19:38
bitcoin up or down july 27 2026 11pm et	2	$445	706	0	+706	Up	+$261	07-28 03:00
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	3	$426	335	335	+0	Down	+$58	05-22 23:41
bitcoin up or down january 22 2pm et	3	$405	206	206	+0	Up	+$5	01-22 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:20 UTC	1	$400	404	0	+404	Up	+$4	02-16 20:24
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-17 02:30 UTC	1	$400	601	0	+601	Up	+$201	04-17 02:30
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-04 13:00 UTC	1	$400	401	0	+401	Down	+$1	02-04 16:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 21:30 UTC	1	$400	402	0	+402	Up	+$2	01-24 21:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 18:45 UTC	2	$398	206	206	+0	Up	-$2	02-24 18:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 14:50 UTC	1	$395	690	0	+690	Up	+$295	06-09 14:50
bitcoin up or down january 22 9am et	4	$395	206	206	+0	Down	-$5	01-22 14:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 23:05 UTC	1	$392	396	0	+396	Down	+$4	02-20 23:09
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	2	$356	200	200	+0	Up	+$40	05-13 16:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 01:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0xfc4eba…
11-06 00:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xdfbc71…
11-05 21:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x809dbd…
11-05 21:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd26a96…
11-05 21:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x0cab0a…
11-05 21:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0x604216…
11-05 17:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7bf0e2…
11-05 17:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x489aec…
11-05 16:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb4f3e0…
11-05 16:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x092e5b…
11-05 13:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdbbe07…
11-05 09:00:25	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x256b4b…
11-05 06:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9d0ab6…
11-05 06:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5cc693…
11-04 20:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x8b28c5…
11-04 17:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xdf4066…
11-04 17:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcdbac8…
11-04 09:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	17	56¢	$9	0x5eddc6…
11-04 09:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xe86ea4…
11-04 09:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0xa85ae0…
11-04 08:00:16	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x1d2598…
11-04 08:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x8922fb…
11-04 08:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x279d06…
11-04 07:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x28098d…
11-04 07:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x7b589c…
11-04 07:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x77f847…
11-04 03:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 3, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x141b10…
11-04 03:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x073700…
11-04 03:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xf943d4…
11-04 02:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf7bfbb…
11-04 02:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 3, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x98bd6d…
11-04 02:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x45c087…
11-03 21:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xcd4ed3…
11-03 20:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x14d18f…
11-03 17:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2c45c5…
11-03 16:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 3, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x6388ef…
11-03 16:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x567bf2…
11-03 15:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 3, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb7b880…
11-03 11:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x02cc21…
11-03 11:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x127c76…
11-03 11:04:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x12707a…
11-03 10:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x72d43a…
11-03 10:19:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xd936d5…
11-03 10:09:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x05c0c3…
11-03 10:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x3b454a…
11-03 10:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x1e0b1d…
11-03 09:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x993275…
11-03 08:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xc23fa0…
11-03 08:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xb4687a…
11-03 07:15:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xea0ccf…
11-03 07:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x193bfd…
11-03 07:08:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x271375…
11-03 07:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xe1a8e7…
11-03 06:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xfb26f7…
11-03 06:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x882fdd…
11-03 05:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xbe072a…
11-03 04:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xd61c85…
11-03 04:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xe63be2…
11-03 03:38:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xd40aae…
11-03 03:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x1d91a0…
11-03 03:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xde4b83…
11-03 03:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x0ef917…
11-03 03:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x4a1748…
11-03 02:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0xdcf5a6…
11-03 01:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x479a44…
11-03 01:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x073a5f…
11-03 01:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x051d99…
11-03 00:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x05cc62…
11-03 00:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0xc887c6…
11-03 00:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xc033a5…
11-03 00:05:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x55c22e…
11-02 22:36:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x37be86…
11-02 22:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x4e30bd…
11-02 22:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x974842…
11-02 21:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xcd02c6…
11-02 21:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x0d7e5c…
11-02 21:02:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xa0d62a…
11-02 21:00:16	Solana Up or Down - November 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x84089b…
11-02 21:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x66f845…
11-02 20:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xf62d2c…
11-02 20:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xaf3294…
11-02 20:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xc74dd7…
11-02 20:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x630e4e…
11-02 20:03:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xe23262…
11-02 20:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x92e167…
11-02 19:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x8e727a…
11-02 19:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x25aa40…
11-02 19:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0xb8db3b…
11-02 19:28:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0xa0269e…
11-02 19:27:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x9a3be0…
11-02 19:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xd05bdd…
11-02 19:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xcccdb9…
11-02 19:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Up	SELL	194	45¢	$88	0x120f28…
11-02 19:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x75f4a9…
11-02 19:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x889e7c…
11-02 19:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	194	56¢	$109	0x6ee60f…
11-02 18:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$6	0x926784…
11-02 18:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0x94f47e…
11-02 18:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0e617e…
11-02 18:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xac860e…