Phony-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$728

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

49.1%

Resolved (90d)

775

Trades (90d)

1,126

9,781 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$9.19K

$128.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$22

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 11-13 14:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 222 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 65% +$2,112

Politics

0% 33% -$4

Other

0% 30% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 195 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Solana Up or Down - November 13, 9AM ET	Down	—	+17	$10	98¢	$17	+$7	11-13 14:00
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 9AM ET	Down	—	+6	$3	99¢	$6	+$3	11-13 14:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET	4	$995	632	632	+0	Up	+$246	05-06 19:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-23 14:30 UTC	3	$842	425	425	+0	Down	+$2	01-23 14:41
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	3	$812	734	734	+0	Up	-$188	05-14 00:06
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$604	407	407	+0	Up	+$115	05-15 19:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 15:20 UTC	1	$600	612	0	+612	Down	+$12	03-08 15:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 19:50 UTC	1	$600	612	0	+612	Down	+$12	03-08 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET	2	$557	361	361	+0	Down	+$87	05-05 07:52
bitcoin up or down january 25 5am et	6	$550	504	53	+451	Up	+$1	01-25 10:53
Solana Up or Down - October 7, 8AM ET	15	$500	824	0	+824	Down	-$500	10-07 12:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 16:30 UTC	1	$500	501	0	+501	Down	+$1	01-26 16:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 21:15 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	02-16 21:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:35 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	02-16 20:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 22:50 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Up	+$5	02-20 22:54
bitcoin up or down january 27 4pm et	3	$500	501	0	+501	Down	+$1	01-27 21:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 13:30 UTC	1	$500	500	0	+500	Up	+$1	01-26 13:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 21:00 UTC	1	$500	500	0	+500	Down	+$1	02-09 21:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 23:30 UTC	3	$499	501	0	+501	Up	+$1	01-26 23:44
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-31 16:00 UTC	2	$454	295	295	+0	Up	+$131	07-31 19:38
bitcoin up or down july 27 2026 11pm et	2	$445	706	0	+706	Up	+$261	07-28 03:00
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	3	$426	335	335	+0	Down	+$58	05-22 23:41
bitcoin up or down january 22 2pm et	3	$405	206	206	+0	Up	+$5	01-22 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 20:20 UTC	1	$400	404	0	+404	Up	+$4	02-16 20:24
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-17 02:30 UTC	1	$400	601	0	+601	Up	+$201	04-17 02:30
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-04 13:00 UTC	1	$400	401	0	+401	Down	+$1	02-04 16:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-24 21:30 UTC	1	$400	402	0	+402	Up	+$2	01-24 21:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 18:45 UTC	2	$398	206	206	+0	Up	-$2	02-24 18:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 14:50 UTC	1	$395	690	0	+690	Up	+$295	06-09 14:50
bitcoin up or down january 22 9am et	4	$395	206	206	+0	Down	-$5	01-22 14:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 23:05 UTC	1	$392	396	0	+396	Down	+$4	02-20 23:09
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	2	$356	200	200	+0	Up	+$40	05-13 16:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 14:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 13, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0x73b150…
11-13 14:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x607041…
11-13 13:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7e7cfc…
11-13 13:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 13, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xafdff0…
11-13 12:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 13, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x0c0a09…
11-13 06:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0xed4be7…
11-13 06:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x81c7b2…
11-13 05:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0xc95d12…
11-13 05:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 13, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xa707e9…
11-13 04:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 12, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xd198c7…
11-13 04:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x927ae3…
11-13 01:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x2c96de…
11-13 01:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	89	54¢	$48	0xdcc6dc…
11-12 21:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	63	62¢	$39	0xf1dd89…
11-12 21:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	39	53¢	$21	0xc2bb72…
11-12 17:00:24	Solana Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x048f9b…
11-12 17:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	59¢	$9	0x7dea34…
11-12 17:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xe05850…
11-12 15:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x972f0e…
11-12 15:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 12, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xe30fa4…
11-12 15:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$4	0x53f12a…
11-12 14:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4c9ed0…
11-12 14:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xdd01da…
11-12 14:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 12, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc5ea32…
11-12 13:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x734e40…
11-12 13:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x50a77b…
11-12 09:00:16	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-12 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xdcaef1…
11-12 09:00:15	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-12 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x74a8ae…
11-12 07:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xaa6416…
11-12 07:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 12, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc90725…
11-11 21:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x6a9455…
11-11 21:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x6e171a…
11-11 17:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa20b48…
11-11 17:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x48329c…
11-11 15:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x608c6c…
11-11 13:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x27660b…
11-11 06:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x2a1208…
11-11 05:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x0d59c4…
11-10 21:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xfd951d…
11-10 17:00:25	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4e3292…
11-10 17:00:19	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0x8433a6…
11-10 17:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	39	55¢	$22	0x7551f3…
11-10 17:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xd3463a…
11-10 13:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xf6ba5c…
11-10 13:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	52¢	$7	0x4d4c3d…
11-10 13:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x551d5f…
11-10 11:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	6	57¢	$4	0x09b7db…
11-10 10:00:19	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x142b97…
11-10 09:00:18	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-10 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0x9e0bcb…
11-10 09:00:16	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-10 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0xd01c88…
11-10 05:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x216174…
11-10 05:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xe191f5…
11-10 04:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x96da4c…
11-10 04:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x4a75ca…
11-10 04:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x120eb4…
11-10 03:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa5d3b0…
11-10 03:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6f70d2…
11-09 20:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x3a05c5…
11-09 16:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x3de918…
11-09 16:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0xd9727b…
11-09 15:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x4747a3…
11-09 15:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7bf685…
11-09 13:00:24	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x381a63…
11-09 13:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x706fe0…
11-09 13:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	41	54¢	$22	0x3e54df…
11-09 09:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x236bd2…
11-09 09:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0xa601d0…
11-09 09:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x01b99e…
11-09 08:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xb136ae…
11-09 08:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$4	0xcc5bb3…
11-09 08:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x25e96a…
11-09 07:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x94af5e…
11-09 07:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf2296a…
11-09 07:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x710c03…
11-09 05:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xa0db7f…
11-09 05:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x2eea2a…
11-09 03:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 8, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x71ba4d…
11-09 02:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 8, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x70bd9b…
11-09 01:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa7750f…
11-09 01:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc1a58e…
11-08 13:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xa50968…
11-08 09:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdff94b…
11-07 21:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x91326c…
11-07 21:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfbb120…
11-07 21:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1f3f6e…
11-07 13:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x1078b3…
11-07 13:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x06fd24…
11-07 09:00:16	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-07 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x5dec56…
11-07 09:00:15	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-07 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x904195…
11-07 09:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0xac1e90…
11-07 08:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x25c6a1…
11-07 03:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb1aa33…
11-06 17:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x19349a…
11-06 09:00:36	Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xa1993d…
11-06 09:00:19	Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	101	55¢	$55	0x8b2de0…
11-06 05:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x212364…
11-06 01:00:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0xfc4eba…
11-06 00:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xdfbc71…
11-05 21:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x809dbd…
11-05 21:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd26a96…