Capital-Refectory 0xa7a3d4…d67739
hot 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$1.74K
Unrealized P&L
-$594
Hit rate
61.2%
Resolved
214
Trades
2,269
lifetime
Volume
$90.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$40
Open exposure
$3.30K
14 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-27 16:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 104 days
Categories
Politics
67% 59% +$267
Other
20% 56% +$176
Sports
6% 52% +$1,377
Tech
4% 100% +$295
Crypto
2% 58% -$379
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
59 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -900 -$637 82¢ $-733 -$96 07-18 20:14
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +650 $618 96¢ $627 +$9 10-16 07:09
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +577 $318 88¢ $505 +$187 10-26 12:54
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +750 $482 66¢ $491 +$9 10-09 21:55
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857 Yes +1,389 $716 35¢ $491 -$226 10-26 14:16
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No +350 $203 34¢ $117 -$86 09-29 18:16
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No +100 $90 98¢ $98 +$9 10-20 00:18
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +341 $28 24¢ $84 +$55 10-26 16:06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes -2,000 -$64 4¢ $-79 -$15 10-01 18:14
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +449 $352 4¢ $20 -$332 10-22 21:31
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No -19 -$23 92¢ $-18 +$5 10-21 16:30
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes +131 $42 14¢ $18 -$24 10-25 22:14
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes +500 $55 2¢ $12 -$43 08-31 02:37
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +175 $54 4¢ $7 -$47 10-27 16:34