Capital-Refectory 0xa7a3d4…d67739 Create alert
2W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L (7d)
-$169
Unrealized P&L
+$15
Hit rate
90.5%
Resolved (7d)
6
Trades (7d)
68
2,352 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$4.64K
$95.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$41
Open exposure
$3.54K
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 11-10 12:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 107 days
Categories
Politics
67% 58% +$98
Other
20% 55% -$204
Sports
5% 52% +$1,377
Tech
5% 86% +$238
Crypto
2% 58% -$379
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
62 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -900 -$637 92¢ $-823 -$186 07-18 20:14
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +650 $618 99¢ $641 +$23 10-16 07:09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,361 $705 38¢ $522 -$182 11-09 15:31
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +500 $215 96¢ $482 +$267 11-10 01:07
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +300 -$1 92¢ $275 +$276 11-10 01:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes +399 $256 68¢ $273 +$17 11-04 16:54
Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026? Yes +212 $189 98¢ $208 +$18 11-10 00:48
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No +100 $90 100¢ $100 +$10 10-20 00:18
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? No +350 $203 24¢ $82 -$121 09-29 18:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes -2,000 -$64 2¢ $-33 +$31 10-01 18:14
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season? No +87 $46 35¢ $30 -$15 10-31 16:44
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No -19 -$23 96¢ $-18 +$5 10-21 16:30
Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026? Yes +20 -$1 90¢ $18 +$19 11-10 12:46
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31? Yes +100 $17 14¢ $14 -$3 11-10 01:57
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes +500 $55 2¢ $9 -$46 08-31 02:37
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes +131 $42 6¢ $8 -$33 10-25 22:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +100 $17 3¢ $3 -$14 10-28 18:36
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +175 $54 2¢ $3 -$51 10-27 16:34