Judicious-Lunchmeat — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$13.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$831

Hit rate

70.4%

Resolved (30d)

103

Trades (30d)

2,666

9,743 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$84.2K

$382.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$5.64K

19 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 11:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 168 days

Categories

Other

80% 63% +$11,223

Tech

16% 69% +$17,665

Politics

3% 40% -$1,989

Crypto

1% 33% +$455

Sports

0% 40% +$615

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 462 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+4,000	$3,680	94¢	$3.8K	+$100	10-26 17:39
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+2,324	$566	52¢	$1.2K	+$654	10-02 11:39
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	+284	$207	75¢	$213	+$6	10-06 10:40
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	+150	$101	95¢	$143	+$42	09-11 11:48
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+178	$48	76¢	$136	+$87	09-11 11:48
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	+50	$36	99¢	$50	+$14	10-26 07:28
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+40	$35	77¢	$31	-$4	10-27 05:53
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	+41	$26	50¢	$21	-$5	10-26 15:03
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+41	$20	50¢	$20	+$1	10-26 06:48
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	+131	$50	12¢	$16	-$34	10-08 13:03
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	+40	$8	23¢	$9	+$2	10-26 18:04
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	Yes	+27	$10	18¢	$5	-$5	07-27 23:50
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	+50	$19	1¢	$0	-$18	10-26 02:47
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+0	$2	74¢	$0	-$2	10-24 01:36
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	42¢	$0	$0	10-23 12:40
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	+0	$1	36¢	$0	-$1	10-23 12:40
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$2	38¢	$0	-$2	10-24 01:36
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	$0	38¢	$0	$0	10-07 12:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$2	14¢	$0	-$2	10-24 01:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	74	$8.1K	21,861	19,859	+2,002	Yes	+$6,861	03-30 02:58
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	73	$7.5K	13,175	11,085	+2,090	No	-$927	04-23 22:01
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	70	$5.7K	7,061	3,780	+3,281	Yes	+$2,214	05-24 14:24
will anthropic have the 2 ai model at the end of march 2026	61	$4.7K	4,246	3,876	+370	Yes	+$2,337	03-20 09:08
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	81	$4.5K	26,480	12,134	+14,346	No	-$3,174	06-23 22:48
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	2	$4.2K	4,401	0	+4,401	Yes	+$222	09-03 02:59
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	181	$4.1K	5,942	2,291	+3,651	No	-$1,663	09-21 01:58
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	145	$4.1K	4,606	1,934	+2,672	Yes	+$1,310	09-27 10:57
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	177	$4.0K	4,110	3,640	+470	Yes	+$648	10-05 03:17
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?	127	$3.8K	6,066	6,064	+2	open	—	10-23 12:54
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	76	$3.8K	3,793	1,830	+1,963	No	+$543	10-09 15:09
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	148	$3.7K	4,173	3,388	+785	Yes	+$250	08-23 13:54
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$3.7K	2,567	2,567	+0	No	-$13	04-23 01:25
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	70	$3.7K	6,356	1,757	+4,599	Yes	+$2,517	08-15 19:35
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	5	$3.7K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	10-26 17:39
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	21	$3.5K	4,339	579	+3,761	No	+$1,054	10-13 12:35
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460?	7	$3.5K	7,308	7,308	+0	resolved	-$874	05-10 01:20
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	6	$3.5K	3,671	2,022	+1,648	Yes	+$336	05-22 23:46
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	60	$3.4K	4,222	1,957	+2,265	Yes	+$1,292	05-11 04:17
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	164	$3.3K	7,758	3,286	+4,473	No	-$1,754	08-08 18:45
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	75	$3.2K	3,480	2,919	+560	No	+$173	07-26 09:16
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	42	$3.2K	9,725	9,697	+28	Yes	+$850	09-16 00:55
Will there be more than 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	75	$3.1K	4,031	1,820	+2,211	Yes	+$805	07-19 18:39
Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	71	$3.1K	3,368	2,202	+1,165	No	-$370	10-10 00:46
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	33	$3.0K	4,930	4,263	+667	No	-$818	05-29 00:36
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	135	$3.0K	3,191	2,580	+611	Yes	+$418	08-02 08:56
Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	34	$2.9K	3,860	34	+3,826	Yes	-$1,049	10-19 01:05
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	7	$2.8K	6,195	6,195	+0	No	-$541	05-10 10:36
will there be 2 earthquakes of 6pt5 or above magnitude worldwide oct19 25	129	$2.8K	3,573	1,727	+1,847	No	-$1,955	10-25 10:11
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	34	$2.7K	3,761	1,331	+2,431	No	+$48	10-16 08:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 11:55:12	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x6f54d3…
11-01 11:54:30	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0xc63f45…
11-01 11:54:15	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0x77820a…
11-01 11:54:15	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x5257c6…
11-01 11:51:01	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	14	39¢	$5	0xeacde4…
11-01 11:51:01	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x7c5801…
11-01 11:49:19	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x3c3098…
11-01 11:30:54	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	17	38¢	$6	0xb77e74…
11-01 11:05:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x6d95b5…
11-01 11:05:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x35720e…
11-01 10:55:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xfbe2f0…
11-01 10:55:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x6ac64c…
11-01 10:55:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x1e1d82…
11-01 10:55:24	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by November 30?	No	SELL	60	37¢	$22	0xa79559…
11-01 10:45:49	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x8f55ca…
11-01 10:45:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xbb79cb…
11-01 09:45:46	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x8b8ce6…
11-01 09:25:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x021787…
11-01 09:16:19	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xffdceb…
11-01 09:00:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xc67cb3…
11-01 08:55:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xd0ae56…
11-01 08:50:24	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x0d4db2…
11-01 08:45:24	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x2257ec…
11-01 08:40:24	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x030674…
11-01 08:35:31	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x78dc88…
11-01 08:35:06	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xdd71f3…
11-01 08:33:24	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0x3b81cf…
11-01 08:30:22	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x638df0…
11-01 08:17:12	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x89956e…
11-01 08:15:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x562ef4…
11-01 08:05:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x754595…
11-01 07:55:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xc0b3e5…
11-01 07:50:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x87f102…
11-01 07:40:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xae9660…
11-01 07:25:24	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xde4b16…
11-01 07:25:24	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x0a662d…
11-01 07:15:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x554cb5…
11-01 07:15:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x0a3e28…
11-01 07:15:24	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x8c7ee7…
11-01 06:15:25	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x2bbb59…
11-01 05:26:51	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xb6ec1f…
11-01 05:26:51	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x5ead24…
11-01 05:04:16	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x7c0400…
11-01 03:52:15	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x95d2d7…
11-01 03:29:12	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	3	82¢	$2	0xf636c0…
11-01 03:29:12	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	17	82¢	$14	0x56aa84…
11-01 03:05:24	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x045285…
11-01 00:47:43	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x159b71…
11-01 00:25:27	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x770bb8…
10-31 22:50:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xc400ff…
10-31 22:45:06	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xbadf1d…
10-31 22:41:13	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x6bff06…
10-31 22:36:33	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x0ce80c…
10-31 22:31:52	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	22	23¢	$5	0x424cf1…
10-31 22:30:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x395815…
10-31 22:26:30	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	16	16¢	$3	0xf10f6b…
10-31 22:25:28	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x2938c1…
10-31 22:22:34	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$3	0xf9ced5…
10-31 22:22:34	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	15	28¢	$4	0xf9ced5…
10-31 22:22:31	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x3f753b…
10-31 22:22:30	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0x454726…
10-31 22:20:28	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x2eed51…
10-31 22:19:19	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x1bc023…
10-31 22:16:31	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	106	74¢	$78	0xc7bb9e…
10-31 22:16:31	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0x893963…
10-31 22:16:30	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0xee8f0b…
10-31 22:16:30	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0xb66dc7…
10-31 22:15:54	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	41	55¢	$22	0xd1a894…
10-31 22:15:54	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	154	38¢	$58	0x2dc9e6…
10-31 21:40:25	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x6f45e5…
10-31 21:20:25	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xf57065…
10-31 20:10:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0xf0a916…
10-31 20:05:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x1bc395…
10-31 19:55:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xd268c4…
10-31 19:50:24	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x97b72f…
10-31 19:50:24	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x95fb92…
10-31 19:45:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xc982b9…
10-31 19:35:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xb98f47…
10-31 19:28:37	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xeec3e6…
10-31 19:28:37	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	53	30¢	$16	0x2f2e03…
10-31 18:55:39	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x07677f…
10-31 18:39:06	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x20d364…
10-31 16:10:52	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x377865…
10-31 16:10:25	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0x317a99…
10-31 16:05:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x90aa50…
10-31 16:05:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	51	39¢	$20	0x238fb7…
10-31 16:02:52	Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by November 30?	Yes	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x21ccb6…
10-31 16:00:10	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x726f47…
10-31 15:59:33	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	29	25¢	$7	0xfebca5…
10-31 15:57:40	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x2593f5…
10-31 15:57:39	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	1	43¢	$0	0xa35050…
10-31 15:25:24	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xa626cb…
10-31 15:19:45	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0xb5017c…
10-31 15:19:01	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x13014b…
10-31 15:17:31	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	35	46¢	$16	0x971941…
10-31 15:15:28	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xdef960…
10-31 14:53:09	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xf241ee…
10-31 14:42:12	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xa1cd1d…
10-31 14:25:28	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	14	24¢	$3	0x44cfb4…
10-31 14:25:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x457b2f…