Judicious-Lunchmeat — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$296

Unrealized P&L

+$8.93K

Hit rate

53.2%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

880

9,541 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$21.1K

$379.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$14.1K

20 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 15:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 165 days

Categories

Other

80% 62% +$10,898

Tech

16% 68% +$8,842

Politics

3% 40% -$1,989

Crypto

1% 33% +$455

Sports

0% 40% +$615

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 462 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+8,468	$171	99¢	$8.4K	+$8,237	10-17 12:57
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+4,000	$3,680	94¢	$3.7K	+$60	10-26 17:39
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+2,324	$566	58¢	$1.4K	+$793	10-02 11:39
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	+284	$207	72¢	$205	-$3	10-06 10:40
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	+150	$101	95¢	$143	+$41	09-11 11:48
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+178	$48	78¢	$139	+$91	09-11 11:48
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	+50	$36	93¢	$46	+$11	10-26 07:28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	+131	$50	18¢	$23	-$27	10-08 13:03
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	+41	$26	51¢	$21	-$5	10-26 15:03
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+41	$20	49¢	$20	+$1	10-26 06:48
will the next google gemini pro model be released by october 31 2026	Yes	+1,000	$260	2¢	$16	-$244	10-01 10:49
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	Yes	+27	$10	18¢	$5	-$5	07-27 23:50
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	+50	$19	7¢	$4	-$16	10-26 02:47
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	+7	$0	0¢	$0	$0	10-23 12:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+0	$2	76¢	$0	-$2	10-24 01:36
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	41¢	$0	$0	10-23 12:40
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	+0	$1	34¢	$0	-$1	10-23 12:40
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$2	39¢	$0	-$2	10-24 01:36
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	$0	40¢	$0	$0	10-07 12:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$2	16¢	$0	-$2	10-24 01:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	74	$8.1K	21,861	19,859	+2,002	Yes	+$6,861	03-30 02:58
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	73	$7.5K	13,175	11,085	+2,090	No	-$927	04-23 22:01
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	70	$5.7K	7,061	3,780	+3,281	Yes	+$2,214	05-24 14:24
will anthropic have the 2 ai model at the end of march 2026	61	$4.7K	4,246	3,876	+370	Yes	+$2,337	03-20 09:08
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	81	$4.5K	26,480	12,134	+14,346	No	-$3,174	06-23 22:48
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	2	$4.2K	4,401	0	+4,401	Yes	+$222	09-03 02:59
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	181	$4.1K	5,942	2,291	+3,651	No	-$1,663	09-21 01:58
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	145	$4.1K	4,606	1,934	+2,672	Yes	+$1,310	09-27 10:57
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	177	$4.0K	4,110	3,640	+470	Yes	+$648	10-05 03:17
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?	127	$3.8K	6,066	6,064	+2	open	—	10-23 12:54
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	76	$3.8K	3,793	1,830	+1,963	No	+$543	10-09 15:09
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	148	$3.7K	4,173	3,388	+785	Yes	+$250	08-23 13:54
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$3.7K	2,567	2,567	+0	No	-$13	04-23 01:25
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	70	$3.7K	6,356	1,757	+4,599	Yes	+$2,517	08-15 19:35
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	5	$3.7K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	10-26 17:39
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	21	$3.5K	4,339	579	+3,761	No	+$1,054	10-13 12:35
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1460?	7	$3.5K	7,308	7,308	+0	resolved	-$874	05-10 01:20
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	6	$3.5K	3,671	2,022	+1,648	Yes	+$336	05-22 23:46
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	60	$3.4K	4,222	1,957	+2,265	Yes	+$1,292	05-11 04:17
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	164	$3.3K	7,758	3,286	+4,473	No	-$1,754	08-08 18:45
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	75	$3.2K	3,480	2,919	+560	No	+$173	07-26 09:16
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	42	$3.2K	9,725	9,697	+28	Yes	+$850	09-16 00:55
Will there be more than 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	75	$3.1K	4,031	1,820	+2,211	Yes	+$805	07-19 18:39
Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	71	$3.1K	3,368	2,202	+1,165	No	-$370	10-10 00:46
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	33	$3.0K	4,930	4,263	+667	No	-$818	05-29 00:36
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	135	$3.0K	3,191	2,580	+611	Yes	+$418	08-02 08:56
Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	34	$2.9K	3,860	34	+3,826	Yes	-$1,049	10-19 01:05
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	7	$2.8K	6,195	6,195	+0	No	-$541	05-10 10:36
will there be 2 earthquakes of 6pt5 or above magnitude worldwide oct19 25	129	$2.8K	3,573	1,727	+1,847	No	-$1,955	10-25 10:11
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	34	$2.7K	3,761	1,331	+2,431	No	+$48	10-16 08:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 17:03:45	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x95a020…
10-30 17:03:45	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x7011c8…
10-30 15:19:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xc66fdc…
10-30 15:04:13	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x581fab…
10-30 10:34:36	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x97c3e2…
10-30 10:25:34	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x077e7a…
10-30 10:24:40	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x74f961…
10-30 10:24:39	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xe0438f…
10-30 07:13:46	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xc6c0dd…
10-30 06:42:33	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xb2b6b5…
10-30 05:14:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x173932…
10-30 04:40:58	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xcf166d…
10-30 04:40:58	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xae8b7f…
10-30 03:54:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0xf586cb…
10-30 01:56:43	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	22	87¢	$19	0x05ae2d…
10-30 01:24:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x38164d…
10-30 01:14:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x9c896a…
10-30 00:59:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xbe0b26…
10-30 00:49:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xbfccd7…
10-30 00:39:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x92fd11…
10-30 00:29:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x031ed0…
10-30 00:19:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x473094…
10-30 00:04:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x87161f…
10-29 23:49:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xe1d107…
10-29 23:39:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x682f89…
10-29 23:24:37	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xe5a11e…
10-29 22:56:24	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x0764a0…
10-29 22:54:30	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $75M and $100M by November 30?	No	SELL	40	31¢	$12	0xbc7d54…
10-29 22:54:30	Will "Sense and Sensibility" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	95	59¢	$56	0xaef7d2…
10-29 22:54:30	EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x8034e4…
10-29 22:15:21	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$6	0xc555c8…
10-29 22:05:06	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x5739af…
10-29 22:04:37	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xd8020a…
10-29 22:04:37	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x1759e2…
10-29 21:59:36	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x0c1aff…
10-29 21:56:07	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x289049…
10-29 21:55:18	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xa88497…
10-29 21:53:18	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xaf30ff…
10-29 21:52:57	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	75	9¢	$7	0x533270…
10-29 21:50:00	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	31	74¢	$23	0xb7dab3…
10-29 21:50:00	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x5fca37…
10-29 21:49:58	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x76d29f…
10-29 21:49:58	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x59b4ae…
10-29 21:49:58	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x070d3d…
10-29 21:48:43	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x7c69c3…
10-29 21:48:42	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	68	81¢	$55	0xe30e45…
10-29 21:48:42	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xabddad…
10-29 21:48:42	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x2b6b96…
10-29 20:34:36	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x228ed5…
10-29 19:25:31	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x3e4839…
10-29 19:04:40	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x41cc79…
10-29 17:46:58	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	144	74¢	$106	0x586192…
10-29 17:46:22	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x6cef46…
10-29 17:46:19	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xebb200…
10-29 17:46:19	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xea18c9…
10-29 17:46:17	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xf40c54…
10-29 17:46:17	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x9348ad…
10-29 17:34:35	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0xb5e7d2…
10-29 17:29:43	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0xc3eed4…
10-29 17:25:40	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x505fad…
10-29 17:24:38	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0xd35cb4…
10-29 16:44:37	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xb2f9bd…
10-29 16:38:52	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x2d7653…
10-29 16:24:34	Will "Dog Alone" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xe0375c…
10-29 16:03:26	Will "Being Heumann" be nominated for Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0xc20e8e…
10-29 12:58:13	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x57cde3…
10-29 12:56:41	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	60	86¢	$52	0x6a8b6b…
10-29 12:54:35	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xf05d13…
10-29 12:01:47	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x88846b…
10-29 12:01:46	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xf44bf2…
10-29 12:01:46	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	36	87¢	$31	0x0d29ce…
10-29 09:52:23	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x36ff90…
10-29 09:52:22	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	21	87¢	$18	0xb7dddf…
10-29 09:52:20	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0xd7728b…
10-29 09:12:43	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xca25ea…
10-29 09:05:05	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x9ec99b…
10-29 08:59:38	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x9c9260…
10-29 08:54:37	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xcfa8cf…
10-29 08:49:35	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xc77478…
10-29 08:49:35	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x32ffdf…
10-29 08:42:23	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x30a942…
10-29 08:42:23	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x304ef4…
10-29 08:37:23	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xebcac7…
10-29 08:37:23	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xdef6ee…
10-29 08:22:47	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x3bb4a9…
10-29 08:17:26	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x4f918b…
10-29 08:10:05	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xe23f23…
10-29 07:58:49	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x600ed9…
10-29 07:48:22	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x12b7b8…
10-29 06:40:59	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xb6f25c…
10-29 06:30:50	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xd46089…
10-29 06:30:49	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	80	7¢	$6	0x6d1599…
10-29 06:30:49	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x51c75b…
10-29 06:04:35	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x4b37fd…
10-29 05:54:35	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xb6ac28…
10-29 05:23:52	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x6679f5…
10-29 05:18:31	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x3b1629…
10-29 05:18:20	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xdc28b6…
10-29 05:16:23	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x7e5cb7…
10-29 04:23:32	Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0x770993…