Adolescent-Guilty — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$395

Unrealized P&L

+$3.65K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

1,260 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$4.18K

$123.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

$8.89K

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 14:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

46% 36% -$748

Crypto

31% 57% +$6,553

Politics

23% 39% -$1,268

Sports

1% 0% -$945

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	+3,366	$635	80¢	$2.7K	+$2,063	11-01 14:41
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+1,999	$768	81¢	$1.6K	+$851	10-21 18:55
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,691	$716	52¢	$888	+$172	10-04 05:43
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,893	$963	20¢	$759	-$204	10-27 19:53
will predictfun launch a token by november 30 2026	No	+2,300	$316	33¢	$754	+$438	10-30 09:30
Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	+712	$93	67¢	$480	+$386	10-05 15:42
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+413	$121	94¢	$390	+$269	10-15 07:21
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,205	$160	32¢	$380	+$220	10-26 18:54
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	+266	$74	71¢	$190	+$116	10-13 16:11
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,860	$403	8¢	$153	-$250	10-29 13:38
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+186	$17	72¢	$134	+$118	10-14 20:18
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	-117	-$81	96¢	$-112	-$31	05-08 21:48
Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	+113	$53	93¢	$105	+$52	10-01 12:33
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026	No	+109	$91	96¢	$104	+$14	09-04 22:02
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027?	No	+200	$53	29¢	$58	+$5	09-12 16:12
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+220	$176	12¢	$25	-$151	08-14 16:28
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	+217	$174	11¢	$24	-$150	10-31 16:38
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	+1,387	$284	1¢	$20	-$264	10-29 04:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	37	$14.4K	15,242	13,127	+2,115	Yes	+$1,438	05-01 09:58
will pumpfun perform an airdrop by march 31	25	$8.6K	0	9,242	-9,242	No	-$629	03-10 09:11
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	26	$7.0K	7,186	4,308	+2,878	No	+$2,951	05-01 06:06
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	32	$6.4K	3,911	3,412	+499	No	+$70	02-22 21:31
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	21	$6.4K	4,061	4,124	-63	Yes	+$1,563	04-30 10:53
will megaeth perform an airdrop by february 15	21	$3.9K	2,325	2,325	+0	No	+$656	02-16 16:20
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	6	$3.6K	2,032	2,032	+0	No	+$185	02-03 12:48
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	59	$3.2K	3,751	3,707	+44	Yes	-$139	02-06 14:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	25	$3.0K	3,073	1,613	+1,460	No	+$691	05-24 18:09
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	14	$2.2K	2,807	1,349	+1,458	No	+$1,670	06-23 12:51
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?	15	$2.1K	133	2,161	-2,027	No	-$69	09-14 23:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	7	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$32	04-30 10:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$1.8K	2,887	2,887	+0	No	-$908	06-04 01:02
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	5	$1.6K	941	941	+0	Yes	+$52	02-04 11:55
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	12	$1.5K	4,674	344	+4,330	Yes	-$1,332	03-01 00:06
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	7	$1.5K	1,046	1,046	+0	No	+$475	05-24 15:09
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	13	$1.5K	1,340	923	+417	open	—	10-06 04:37
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026	19	$1.4K	2,469	996	+1,473	Yes	+$1,472	02-06 14:28
will megaeth perform an airdrop by february 28 623 432	24	$1.4K	1,677	1,677	+0	No	+$866	02-06 23:34
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?	22	$1.4K	1,915	1,011	+904	Yes	-$223	02-21 00:21
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	5	$1.4K	1,526	0	+1,526	No	+$171	04-30 11:11
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026?	6	$1.3K	0	1,561	-1,561	No	-$220	02-16 22:43
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	5	$1.3K	1,449	1,449	+0	Yes	-$58	01-31 12:06
Will Neutrl launch a token by June 30, 2027?	17	$1.3K	1,479	1,479	+0	open	—	10-03 12:18
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	14	$1.2K	574	1,022	-448	No	+$267	09-09 15:37
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	12	$1.2K	754	754	+0	Yes	+$197	09-10 01:08
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	9	$1.2K	2,295	296	+1,999	open	—	10-21 18:55
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	7	$1.2K	1,990	1,990	+0	Yes	-$189	02-05 13:40
Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026?	6	$1.2K	1,296	1,109	+186	open	—	10-14 20:18
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	15	$1.1K	2,138	2,138	+0	No	-$190	09-10 11:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 14:41:22	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x1a9e66…
11-01 14:38:22	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0x3fa50e…
10-31 16:38:04	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0x5af46e…
10-31 08:25:22	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	231	23¢	$54	0x63bd4b…
10-31 08:24:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,263	22¢	$272	0xabc0a2…
10-31 08:23:55	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	334	98¢	$327	0x17d0b8…
10-31 08:16:58	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	72	21¢	$15	0x2a51f4…
10-31 08:14:55	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	405	21¢	$85	0xb78ebf…
10-31 08:14:33	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x2d9f8b…
10-30 09:36:19	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	114	15¢	$17	0xfcb9ef…
10-30 09:30:48	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	572	15¢	$84	0xb9f4b0…
10-30 09:30:18	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	377	3¢	$11	0x9d9562…
10-30 09:29:42	Will Fuse launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	120	94¢	$113	0x4c250e…
10-30 09:23:19	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	82¢	$13	0xf02895…
10-30 08:51:04	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0x069615…
10-30 08:44:10	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	75¢	$6	0xf884bd…
10-30 08:31:45	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x2b64cd…
10-30 08:31:25	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,898	2¢	$38	0xb11efa…
10-30 08:30:31	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	311	9¢	$29	0xf41496…
10-30 08:30:13	Will Variational launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0xa6b083…
10-29 13:39:28	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	336	1¢	$4	0xeddae4…
10-29 13:38:55	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0x917ca4…
10-29 13:38:44	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,315	0¢	$3	0xe8868e…
10-29 13:38:34	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	328	0¢	$0	0x34bca3…
10-29 13:37:44	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	223	4¢	$8	0x545efd…
10-29 13:37:34	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	51	4¢	$2	0x495923…
10-29 13:37:29	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xd57a48…
10-29 13:37:20	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	85	4¢	$3	0x467886…
10-29 04:33:26	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x9dd98e…
10-29 04:33:02	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x70dd13…
10-29 04:32:46	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xb8821a…
10-29 04:32:19	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0xcfa7ed…
10-29 04:25:32	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5,286	0¢	$16	0x90afe7…
10-29 04:24:55	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	53	3¢	$2	0x388516…
10-29 04:22:58	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1,087	0¢	$1	0x6d9f6e…
10-27 19:53:12	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	214	20¢	$43	0x88599b…
10-27 19:52:56	Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch	No	SELL	324	15¢	$49	0x22ed35…
10-27 19:25:21	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0xd61c63…
10-27 19:24:21	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	433	0¢	$2	0x78593b…
10-27 19:23:39	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	123	5¢	$6	0xdff4b1…
10-27 19:19:05	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	438	1¢	$5	0xe5c78b…
10-26 18:54:14	Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	102	16¢	$17	0x51f183…
10-26 18:53:47	Will Fuse launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	30	69¢	$21	0xcf1c94…
10-21 19:38:42	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x364a24…
10-21 19:25:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	494	20¢	$99	0xfd028a…
10-21 19:22:35	Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1,099	4¢	$44	0x4c9b57…
10-21 19:16:30	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd14e90…
10-21 19:16:23	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xd16705…
10-21 19:13:42	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	153	19¢	$29	0x1b28c8…
10-21 18:57:08	Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	149	60¢	$90	0x9b75ee…
10-21 18:55:29	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	125	72¢	$91	0x7f2b86…
10-21 06:58:05	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1,841	8¢	$149	0x98ee7f…
10-21 06:56:48	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	257	26¢	$67	0xab553b…
10-20 20:36:36	Will Fhenix launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0xed3e99…
10-20 20:14:03	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	SELL	200	40¢	$80	0x094afa…
10-20 20:13:44	Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	218	47¢	$103	0xccd352…
10-17 06:43:44	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xb12157…
10-17 06:36:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x4d746a…
10-15 08:41:13	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	522	18¢	$94	0xe10c76…
10-15 08:27:11	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	708	15¢	$106	0xa3f971…
10-15 08:26:56	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	168	14¢	$24	0xc31892…
10-15 07:32:43	Will Veda launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	29	63¢	$18	0xf6c346…
10-15 07:29:43	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0xee6eaa…
10-15 07:28:35	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	190	97¢	$184	0xe7efba…
10-15 07:28:29	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xf7783a…
10-15 07:28:22	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xd876e4…
10-15 07:28:16	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x9c344e…
10-15 07:28:11	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xa24c65…
10-15 07:27:10	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xed23c7…
10-15 07:21:37	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	58¢	$52	0x69215f…
10-15 07:15:17	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x9c8776…
10-15 07:15:07	standx fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	36	96¢	$35	0xd04446…
10-14 20:46:01	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	15¢	$8	0xdf6e79…
10-14 20:22:04	will predictfun launch a token by november 30 2026	No	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0xad0d3c…
10-14 20:21:00	will predictfun launch a token by november 30 2026	No	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0xae82e7…
10-14 20:18:33	Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	140	55¢	$77	0x97ba95…
10-13 16:11:18	Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	219	30¢	$66	0x0e1088…
10-13 16:10:09	Will Veda launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x5d1e31…
10-13 16:10:00	Will Perpl launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0x6f0985…
10-12 09:23:50	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	298	27¢	$79	0x148d7b…
10-12 09:20:46	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	112	26¢	$29	0x602e36…
10-12 09:17:31	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x8a739d…
10-12 09:16:44	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	784	15¢	$118	0x86ba91…
10-12 09:13:52	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x6b7c39…
10-12 09:11:23	Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	572	14¢	$82	0xf67506…
10-12 09:09:01	Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	479	55¢	$264	0xd9bb7a…
10-12 08:43:25	Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	185	13¢	$24	0x643149…
10-09 17:59:49	Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	215	12¢	$26	0x64c2ae…
10-09 17:51:13	Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch	No	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0x78fb31…
10-09 17:51:04	Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch	No	SELL	547	10¢	$55	0x70ceac…
10-09 16:58:49	Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	311	9¢	$28	0xf11e01…
10-06 14:12:50	Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	47	18¢	$8	0xa07bbd…
10-06 05:09:43	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x613cca…
10-06 05:08:10	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x9d4bba…
10-06 05:08:06	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x27a021…
10-06 04:59:16	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x5fce76…
10-06 04:57:28	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xffedac…
10-06 04:39:48	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	189	16¢	$30	0x6f4c25…
10-06 04:39:27	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	187	27¢	$50	0x22d681…
10-06 04:39:19	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	280	25¢	$70	0x8a37b8…