Courageous-Punishment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

95.7%

Resolved

102

Trades

118

lifetime

Volume

$1.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$37

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-29 17:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

61% 98% +$8

Politics

20% 86% -$33

Crypto

18% 100% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+38	$36	99¢	$37	+$1	10-29 17:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$138	70	70	+0	No	+$1	09-07 12:18
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$128	65	65	+0	No	+$2	09-01 05:06
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$122	61	61	+0	No	+$0	10-03 04:41
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$71	75	0	+75	No	+$4	10-03 16:09
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$65	68	0	+68	No	+$2	08-13 18:14
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	1	$65	65	0	+65	Yes	+$0	08-09 14:50
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$64	64	0	+64	Yes	+$1	08-20 21:33
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$63	65	0	+65	No	+$2	08-05 08:20
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	1	$61	61	0	+61	Yes	+$0	09-22 14:08
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$56	69	0	+69	No	-$56	10-15 10:14
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$50	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	07-30 09:48
will spy reach 800 in june 2026	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	06-30 06:13
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$36	38	0	+38	open	—	10-29 17:44
will chainlink reach 14 in march	1	$24	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-31 03:35
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	04-28 17:30
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	10-01 06:05
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$0	09-29 01:17
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	05-30 15:58
will chainlink dip to 6 in january	3	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	01-23 17:02
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$16	19	0	+19	Yes	+$3	10-25 23:06
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	Yes	+$0	05-16 14:03
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	10-13 07:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$11	11	0	+11	Yes	+$0	05-29 23:07
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	2	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-28 03:03
nvda above 140 on january 30 2026	1	$9	9	0	+9	Yes	+$0	01-07 20:17
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	09-13 10:08
aapl above 320 on january 30 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	01-11 13:48
will hyperliquid dip to 8 in january	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	01-17 03:15
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	2	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	02-21 00:58
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-08 17:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:44:49	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x746a10…
10-25 23:06:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x0bba76…
10-20 22:13:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0x23def3…
10-15 10:14:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	69	82¢	$56	0x887af5…
10-13 07:02:25	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xeeac3f…
10-05 10:15:10	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3384b2…
10-03 16:09:41	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0xa2d493…
10-03 04:41:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0xbdbbeb…
10-01 06:05:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xca88c7…
09-29 19:23:56	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xb97179…
09-29 01:17:20	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb811f7…
09-24 19:53:08	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$61	0x54254b…
09-22 14:08:04	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xeb9b71…
09-22 13:32:54	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6ac6b3…
09-13 10:08:43	Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x87ad05…
09-07 12:18:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	70	100¢	$69	0xd0ab3c…
09-04 14:14:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x579e47…
09-01 05:06:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0xcf5b29…
08-28 04:34:39	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x7c496d…
08-24 02:46:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	65	97¢	$63	0x9fecd9…
08-20 21:33:57	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	64	99¢	$64	0x916b8e…
08-20 03:40:13	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfd4a7d…
08-15 19:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$0	0x53c674…
08-13 18:14:42	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	68	97¢	$65	0x497908…
08-09 14:50:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x28ef3b…
08-05 08:20:33	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	65	97¢	$63	0xd4bb0c…
07-30 09:48:12	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x051167…
07-26 16:40:58	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xa85050…
07-25 21:26:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x18e68b…
07-21 21:00:31	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0a7f88…
07-21 15:08:28	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x544471…
07-20 14:18:42	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x4c674e…
07-17 11:57:16	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd2f38f…
07-13 05:26:35	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x39a6b4…
06-30 06:13:37	will spy reach 800 in june 2026	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xe8cd30…
06-28 03:03:10	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2e0ac7…
06-28 01:47:34	will nvda dip to 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4143a2…
06-27 15:17:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1fb143…
06-27 07:32:04	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbda728…
05-30 15:58:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x1c2b4e…
05-29 23:07:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x6b1080…
05-22 17:05:48	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc2bb97…
05-16 14:03:05	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x56407f…
05-15 06:50:19	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7f15ac…
05-15 03:55:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x825375…
05-14 09:03:50	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xeeb4f1…
05-11 21:50:43	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd3208e…
05-09 17:03:18	Will Solana dip to $30 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9ecab1…
05-09 03:01:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x5839cb…
05-08 21:43:40	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x1eecf5…
05-08 17:28:00	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x16a413…
05-07 11:13:31	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xea2c70…
05-06 14:28:13	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x520212…
05-06 08:51:12	Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x82cb7a…
05-05 19:58:42	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6e317e…
05-05 19:26:38	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcef1a1…
05-05 19:02:56	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xef82ac…
05-05 09:13:40	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2a7d03…
04-28 17:30:12	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xf4a51c…
04-25 07:40:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x863c60…
04-24 10:28:04	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x141c8b…
04-23 02:07:48	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x66b105…
04-21 17:00:16	Will BNB dip to $400 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x352cd6…
04-19 05:24:10	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe831f3…
04-18 16:43:58	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x53793c…
04-18 05:55:52	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9bb6af…
04-17 17:39:08	Will BNB dip to $300 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xfb8e08…
04-17 04:45:00	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x82e9de…
04-16 08:08:22	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x8c10a5…
04-15 16:13:08	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0604d7…
04-15 00:27:48	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd39269…
04-14 09:21:17	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8e9d29…
04-14 03:14:13	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x587147…
03-31 03:35:11	will chainlink reach 14 in march	No	BUY	25	100¢	$24	0xf0ff43…
03-28 01:37:51	nvda above 200 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7e79d8…
03-27 04:06:51	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7fdaae…
03-26 04:32:55	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x70d595…
03-23 05:04:23	will chainlink reach 18 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7de78b…
03-22 14:43:01	will chainlink reach 18 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc9a2c7…
03-19 17:13:25	will saudi aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x382730…
03-19 04:36:53	will xrp dip to 0pt6 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc9fb06…
03-17 08:04:49	will bnb dip to 200 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa9e8c8…
03-16 16:17:31	will bnb reach 1100 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf890a5…
03-14 14:34:29	googl above 360 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x722697…
03-13 16:20:33	will bnb reach 1000 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x06653a…
03-11 18:38:27	msft above 465 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xa6bca6…
03-10 07:23:57	bank of england decreases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting 876	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xf95c84…
03-09 20:47:23	will microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1297a2…
03-08 01:50:41	will zai have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9f8240…
03-07 05:56:51	will xrp dip to 0pt4 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x307ba9…
03-06 02:10:15	will meituan have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 469	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x256766…
03-04 23:27:35	amzn above 270 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xed4297…
02-24 14:44:20	will xrp reach 2pt8 in february 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb3d738…
02-24 09:46:00	will bitcoin reach 105k in february 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x080ae2…
02-22 22:31:52	will solana dip to 50 in february 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3291c5…
02-22 08:15:38	nvda above 150 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xe12e21…
02-21 00:58:24	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x818a12…
02-14 10:54:55	will dogecoin reach 0pt25 in february 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc3e161…
02-13 13:01:39	will bitcoin reach 105k in february 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa2105c…
02-12 10:22:09	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf3a9f1…