Nippy-Legume — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$164.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$56.8K

Hit rate

22.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

485

3,865 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$210.0K

$1.29M lifetime

Avg / trade

$335

Open exposure

$48.3K

15 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 11-01 15:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Politics

58% 61% +$4,852

Other

42% 57% -$167,453

Crypto

0% 33% +$251

Sports

0% 0% -$331

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-216,826	-$1,933	18¢	$-37945	-$36,012	09-11 12:33
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	+233,609	$22,884	2¢	$4.8K	-$18,095	08-07 22:23
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	+54,758	$9,160	6¢	$3.3K	-$5,875	11-01 15:14
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	-39,113	-$4,957	6¢	$-2151	+$2,805	06-24 03:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+278	$100	32¢	$88	-$12	10-31 07:44
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+1,963	-$124	3¢	$62	+$186	10-09 06:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+2	$159	88¢	$2	-$157	08-04 00:05
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	70¢	$1	+$0	10-09 03:24
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+2	$1	72¢	$1	+$0	10-13 11:19
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	+3	$1	24¢	$1	$0	10-12 01:32
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1	$19	74¢	$1	-$18	10-24 23:24
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+1	-$15	70¢	$1	+$16	10-24 23:18
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+3	$1	8¢	$0	-$1	05-08 00:09
iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	Yes	+2	$1	12¢	$0	-$1	08-04 00:05
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+0	-$367	99¢	$0	+$367	10-10 01:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	557	$192.6K	372,127	588,953	-216,826	open	—	09-11 12:33
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	177	$138.5K	443,859	0	+443,859	Yes	-$138,514	09-13 06:00
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	130	$128.7K	89,499	89,498	+1	No	+$25,218	03-27 05:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	52	$51.8K	67,035	0	+67,035	No	+$15,243	07-28 01:55
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	297	$50.8K	101,186	107,632	-6,446	Yes	-$23,562	04-18 14:33
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	79	$50.5K	66,190	69,231	-3,041	Yes	-$15,144	04-14 15:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	417	$50.2K	467,281	294,550	+172,731	No	-$36,868	05-26 22:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	134	$47.6K	61,520	45,418	+16,102	No	+$18,728	04-25 04:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	129	$45.6K	40,316	40,315	+1	Yes	+$3,113	03-31 23:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	33	$41.0K	28,386	28,385	+1	Yes	+$6,953	04-03 23:46
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	119	$38.6K	54,052	64,905	-10,853	Yes	-$4,124	04-17 14:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	104	$37.1K	36,103	36,839	-736	No	+$1,145	06-24 14:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	72	$36.2K	21,670	18,995	+2,676	No	+$1,377	03-02 08:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	40	$35.2K	24,721	26,102	-1,381	Yes	-$657	03-31 23:55
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	52	$32.1K	79,847	2,872	+76,974	Yes	-$28,384	09-12 00:30
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	63	$30.5K	42,042	40,052	+1,990	Yes	-$1,608	04-14 05:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	46	$28.2K	22,903	18,943	+3,960	No	+$4,795	04-09 00:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	12	$26.1K	16,179	16,178	+1	No	+$3,454	03-09 23:15
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	32	$25.9K	16,418	16,967	-549	No	+$2,773	03-08 13:31
will gold gc hit low 4000 by end of february 542 564 882 215 825 637 559 654 593 764 923	65	$23.4K	13,423	10,388	+3,035	No	+$360	02-25 21:30
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	130	$22.9K	233,609	0	+233,609	open	—	08-07 22:23
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	183	$22.3K	72,192	72,957	-765	No	-$11,358	09-11 13:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	23	$17.3K	32,967	32,965	+2	open	—	08-04 00:05
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	26	$15.9K	13,900	14,239	-339	No	+$4,119	03-16 01:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$14.1K	14,680	14,680	+0	No	+$15	04-17 12:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	51	$12.5K	19,695	19,694	+1	Yes	-$1,300	04-10 04:57
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	15	$10.4K	13,276	0	+13,276	Yes	+$2,908	02-27 14:32
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$10.2K	6,011	6,010	+1	No	+$170	08-05 23:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	10	$10.1K	8,044	8,044	+0	No	+$10	04-17 11:14
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	142	$9.2K	54,758	0	+54,758	open	—	11-01 15:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 15:14:30	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	221	4¢	$8	0xa65fc2…
11-01 15:10:12	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0x37ce70…
11-01 15:06:33	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x0bf403…
11-01 14:56:31	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x699745…
11-01 14:30:24	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x364c67…
11-01 14:29:57	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x3b6ed1…
11-01 10:58:46	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xa1a6d1…
11-01 09:38:33	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x37e713…
11-01 09:25:48	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xb7abbd…
11-01 06:25:18	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	92	4¢	$3	0x76b0c3…
10-31 23:28:25	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xcc68c9…
10-31 22:58:46	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x44de8a…
10-31 22:55:09	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x1a1c07…
10-31 22:48:37	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x77ccf4…
10-31 22:46:57	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0x18d4d9…
10-31 22:46:07	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xbc790a…
10-31 22:45:22	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x8537fd…
10-31 22:41:19	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xfe8bb8…
10-31 22:34:22	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb0c597…
10-31 22:34:19	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xac9520…
10-31 22:29:12	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc4fa9f…
10-31 22:26:31	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x957670…
10-31 21:36:25	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xdfb223…
10-31 21:30:37	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x6f104e…
10-31 21:22:39	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4c1277…
10-31 21:19:00	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xbd5fc1…
10-31 20:58:24	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4df1a7…
10-31 20:05:16	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0x6d30f8…
10-31 18:22:30	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0xe9a61e…
10-31 18:10:13	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2897c6…
10-31 17:42:30	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x600ed3…
10-31 17:35:31	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x1f7d60…
10-31 17:14:51	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf01b1f…
10-31 17:10:07	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xe8db3e…
10-31 16:58:22	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x293dd4…
10-31 16:29:39	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2dfc5e…
10-31 15:47:39	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x93d025…
10-31 14:57:18	New pandemic before 2028?	Yes	BUY	178	10¢	$18	0x0f3112…
10-31 14:05:28	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xe1cd9d…
10-31 13:53:12	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7b86ff…
10-31 13:33:37	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb3ab99…
10-31 12:44:46	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x5828e2…
10-31 11:51:54	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4f7907…
10-31 11:48:52	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x701241…
10-31 11:44:00	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7a300e…
10-31 11:33:21	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf914e7…
10-31 11:32:15	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x662194…
10-31 11:29:18	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xd97124…
10-31 11:27:06	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x08fd47…
10-31 11:08:33	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc7dca4…
10-31 11:05:40	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xbaae87…
10-31 11:04:10	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x8e82a0…
10-31 11:00:25	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x20e3c1…
10-31 10:58:21	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x59be64…
10-31 10:50:40	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc279e1…
10-31 10:47:04	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x121e0a…
10-31 10:45:22	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x23bdbe…
10-31 10:25:46	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x96af83…
10-31 10:03:10	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x427d1f…
10-31 09:55:49	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4b2d90…
10-31 09:18:34	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xd82b2a…
10-31 07:44:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	278	36¢	$100	0x003e74…
10-31 05:59:57	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xcc2bb9…
10-31 05:58:45	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb5e5c0…
10-31 05:52:40	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb21b5d…
10-31 05:38:39	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x00d531…
10-31 05:32:01	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xeeb1d6…
10-31 05:29:28	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0b012f…
10-31 05:25:52	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7d9ca5…
10-31 05:24:39	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xac32df…
10-31 05:24:00	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xfdcb08…
10-31 05:20:00	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x482bfe…
10-31 05:08:16	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x5dca05…
10-31 05:01:57	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0c7c09…
10-31 05:00:57	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x256bb2…
10-31 04:59:54	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x98cb93…
10-31 04:50:30	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xff5097…
10-31 04:44:49	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x9fc512…
10-31 04:39:03	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x41e20c…
10-31 04:39:01	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x70b1dd…
10-31 04:37:06	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xa829c4…
10-31 04:37:00	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x9ebc57…
10-30 13:40:55	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xf2c34e…
10-30 12:55:49	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$19	0xdedbec…
10-30 12:55:40	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	700	3¢	$22	0x464703…
10-29 04:41:34	New pandemic before 2028?	Yes	BUY	855	11¢	$94	0x471283…
10-28 03:23:10	New pandemic before 2028?	Yes	BUY	145	11¢	$16	0xee602a…
10-25 00:50:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	BUY	500	65¢	$325	0xc13822…
10-24 23:27:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	BUY	252	62¢	$156	0x9b6439…
10-24 23:24:18	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	609	79¢	$481	0x42313e…
10-24 23:20:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	BUY	390	65¢	$254	0x3b9c9f…
10-24 23:19:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	BUY	1,105	65¢	$718	0x885e12…
10-24 23:19:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	BUY	60	65¢	$39	0x0ac2f9…
10-24 23:18:17	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	1,562	65¢	$1,015	0x04f9ec…
10-24 09:23:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0xa8f9dc…
10-21 05:52:53	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0x53d2b1…
10-21 02:45:09	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	610	82¢	$500	0xa83972…
10-20 23:21:30	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	1,562	64¢	$1,000	0x0a8917…
10-20 15:04:23	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	4,900	8¢	$392	0x064f4e…
10-20 09:49:14	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	3,000	8¢	$240	0xf41ca5…