Realized P&L
-$143
Unrealized P&L
+$7
Hit rate
74.2%
Resolved
3,523
Trades
8,738
lifetime
Volume
$56.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$2.14K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-11
last 10-27 12:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 135 days
Categories
Crypto
45% 85% +$29
Other
37% 14% -$103
Politics
9% 10% -$41
Sports
7% 26% -$2
Tech
1% 20% -$11
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
31 active days in 12wk • peak 296 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +747 $558 74¢ $549 -$9 10-26 02:48
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +747 $203 26¢ $198 -$5 10-26 02:49
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +197 $168 76¢ $151 -$17 10-14 18:48
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +175 $152 78¢ $138 -$15 10-14 22:51
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes +138 $106 74¢ $101 -$5 10-25 00:04
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? No +148 $100 56¢ $82 -$18 10-27 01:48
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +148 $49 44¢ $66 +$17 10-27 01:46
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? No +80 $60 74¢ $59 $0 10-26 06:48
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +60 $56 88¢ $53 -$3 10-21 04:59
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? Yes +60 $53 86¢ $52 -$2 10-23 17:30
another fed rate hike in 2026 No +197 $32 24¢ $46 +$14 10-14 18:45
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? No +50 $46 90¢ $45 $0 10-27 03:50
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +50 $41 81¢ $40 $0 10-15 23:50
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +50 $36 80¢ $40 +$3 10-16 02:57
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +48 $38 80¢ $38 +$0 10-22 19:28
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? Yes +40 $26 94¢ $38 +$12 10-23 18:27
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +175 $25 22¢ $38 +$13 10-14 22:51
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027 No +50 $20 75¢ $38 +$18 10-14 17:48
israeli airspace closed by december 31 2026 No +49 $38 74¢ $36 -$1 10-14 16:24
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No +138 $34 26¢ $36 +$2 10-25 00:04
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes +39 $32 92¢ $36 +$4 10-14 18:15
ilhan omar federally charged by december 31 2026 No +49 $40 70¢ $35 -$6 10-14 17:33
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +47 $29 70¢ $32 +$3 10-13 21:44
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes +49 $26 65¢ $32 +$6 10-24 14:16
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +50 $36 62¢ $31 -$5 10-23 12:14
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +50 $32 60¢ $30 -$3 10-17 16:03
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? No +29 $28 92¢ $27 -$1 10-15 16:36
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? No +30 $26 88¢ $26 +$0 10-22 23:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +40 $22 64¢ $26 +$4 10-14 18:21
us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223 No +30 $25 84¢ $25 +$0 10-14 16:02