Sturdy-Diffuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$58

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

3,771

Trades

5,977

lifetime

Volume

$12.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-28 00:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Other

84% 45% -$66

Crypto

15% 56% -$37

Politics

1% 50% +$33

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 171 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 03:20 UTC	6	$95	61	61	+0	Down	+$19	07-17 03:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:40 UTC	6	$72	53	53	+0	Up	+$12	07-17 18:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:10 UTC	6	$61	47	47	+0	Up	+$1	07-16 18:14
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$59	50	50	+0	Yes	+$41	10-26 02:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:00 UTC	8	$52	36	36	+0	Up	+$2	07-16 18:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:05 UTC	3	$50	47	26	+21	Down	-$14	07-17 04:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:35 UTC	4	$45	26	26	+0	Up	+$5	07-17 18:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:00 UTC	4	$44	68	68	+0	Down	+$4	07-17 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:40 UTC	4	$44	46	46	+0	Up	+$4	07-18 03:44
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on October 25?	2	$43	42	42	+0	Yes	+$41	10-26 07:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 02:50 UTC	2	$38	28	28	+0	Down	+$8	07-17 02:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:15 UTC	2	$37	25	25	+0	Down	+$5	07-17 04:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:30 UTC	4	$35	42	42	+0	Up	-$9	07-17 19:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:30 UTC	2	$35	21	21	+0	Down	+$3	07-17 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 03:00 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	07-18 03:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:35 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 04:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 04:20 UTC	2	$35	29	29	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 04:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 06:45 UTC	2	$33	28	28	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 06:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 19:00 UTC	4	$32	19	19	+0	Up	+$2	07-18 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 03:45 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	07-17 03:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 17:55 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	07-16 17:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 05:05 UTC	4	$29	37	37	+0	Up	-$15	07-17 05:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 05:10 UTC	2	$27	17	17	+0	Up	+$5	07-17 05:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:10 UTC	2	$27	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	07-17 20:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:35 UTC	2	$25	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	07-17 19:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:50 UTC	2	$24	28	28	+0	Up	+$4	07-17 18:53
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6?	2	$24	30	0	+30	Yes	+$6	06-06 20:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 07:55 UTC	4	$23	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	07-16 07:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:30 UTC	2	$23	15	15	+0	Down	+$3	07-16 18:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 18:15 UTC	2	$23	14	14	+0	Up	+$3	07-16 18:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:40:56	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd5095e…
10-28 01:24:38	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x9a68fc…
10-28 00:40:03	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcd4229…
10-28 00:17:35	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0xad3c22…
10-28 00:10:15	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 29?	No	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x5c3b43…
10-28 00:08:36	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x41bfa2…
10-28 00:08:36	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	0	26¢	$0	0x1f4e4d…
10-28 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x48f427…
10-27 23:45:44	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x107fd4…
10-27 23:40:03	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x18d235…
10-27 22:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xc35655…
10-27 22:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0xb918cb…
10-27 22:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2d4d9b…
10-27 22:09:03	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	58¢	$0	0x45d930…
10-27 22:06:14	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x30afc9…
10-27 21:21:05	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7cf491…
10-27 21:21:05	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x38f69f…
10-27 21:13:08	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x81bdcf…
10-27 21:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 29?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xc5e44b…
10-27 21:06:45	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 29?	No	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x5c20fb…
10-27 21:06:14	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xd0c3b6…
10-27 21:06:09	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xec47e6…
10-27 20:12:44	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x441f7f…
10-27 19:18:18	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xf877cc…
10-27 18:56:05	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xffdbb6…
10-27 17:31:38	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xcb750f…
10-27 17:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xc63123…
10-27 16:51:35	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xe8f36c…
10-27 16:51:35	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0x823743…
10-27 16:13:33	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x7eba83…
10-27 16:07:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x0c1030…
10-27 15:13:48	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xc63d6d…
10-27 15:13:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0xb96a6b…
10-27 15:13:29	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xfeee8a…
10-27 15:13:29	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0xeee2dc…
10-27 15:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xd963c2…
10-27 15:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0x002429…
10-27 14:52:51	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xf82e00…
10-27 14:19:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xf61730…
10-27 14:15:44	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x87de22…
10-27 14:11:11	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x2fb974…
10-27 13:58:54	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x50c04e…
10-27 13:51:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x150572…
10-27 13:37:09	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x6aaad9…
10-27 13:34:08	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfea99e…
10-27 13:28:59	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x87d8d4…
10-27 13:15:39	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x11a666…
10-27 13:01:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	6¢	$0	0x2da011…
10-27 13:01:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	6¢	$0	0xf180d6…
10-27 12:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xd93532…
10-27 11:49:09	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$1	0x23c337…
10-27 11:40:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa69f68…
10-27 11:40:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	68	2¢	$1	0x79d5fd…
10-27 11:12:26	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xcd36dc…
10-27 11:06:39	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xa86520…
10-27 11:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xc70901…
10-27 10:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xfb058b…
10-27 10:29:23	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xecc37b…
10-27 10:15:23	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x81f2de…
10-27 10:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0xecac76…
10-27 10:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0xc5bbf7…
10-27 10:04:30	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0x08509e…
10-27 10:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x5affe4…
10-27 10:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x6fa7c1…
10-27 10:00:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x9fb290…
10-27 09:41:26	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x38a94f…
10-27 09:36:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xef1867…
10-27 09:22:00	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0xee890c…
10-27 09:21:59	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x87e955…
10-27 09:11:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xbaf32f…
10-27 09:11:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xdc343a…
10-27 08:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x5489f1…
10-27 08:46:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa6307c…
10-27 08:45:26	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 29?	No	BUY	4	85¢	$4	0x43ac19…
10-27 08:45:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 29?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf0463a…
10-27 08:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xe9cf86…
10-27 08:35:39	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xbfbed0…
10-27 08:33:29	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xd93084…
10-27 08:26:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xcd7daa…
10-27 08:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x44e7aa…
10-27 08:04:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xce11f2…
10-27 08:04:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x7b5fc6…
10-27 07:51:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x2b4174…
10-27 07:11:11	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x447a7f…
10-27 07:00:42	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x8a0a21…
10-27 06:39:15	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	0	61¢	$0	0x92f617…
10-27 06:21:21	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xb866f0…
10-27 06:16:20	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0xd53328…
10-27 06:10:12	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x936b7d…
10-27 06:08:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xe6dc29…
10-27 06:02:33	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x6e1ce2…
10-27 06:01:20	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x005d06…
10-27 05:08:54	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	No	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0xedb8aa…
10-27 05:08:53	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 28?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x031894…
10-27 05:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x260afe…
10-27 05:01:11	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x9c5a2e…
10-27 05:00:35	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xad2670…
10-27 04:16:30	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x758710…
10-27 04:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xb1a939…
10-27 03:56:21	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3baf1e…