Realized P&L
-$1.58K
Unrealized P&L
+$25
Hit rate
47.1%
Resolved
91
Trades
1,150
lifetime
Volume
$4.74K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$215
4 positions
First seen
2026-02-24
last 06-01 20:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 26 days
Categories
Politics
62%
50%
-$1,394
Crypto
16%
36%
-$241
Other
15%
81%
+$23
Tech
7%
100%
+$27
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-01).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +123 | $90 | 86¢ | $107 | +$17 | 06-01 20:06 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +88 | $80 | 98¢ | $87 | +$7 | 05-11 15:28 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +12 | $10 | 96¢ | $12 | +$2 | 05-02 00:07 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +12 | $10 | 82¢ | $10 | $0 | 06-01 06:28 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| israel strikes iran by february 28 2026 | 5 | $235 | 149 | 115 | +34 | Yes | -$25 | 02-26 18:28 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 2 | $206 | 115 | 115 | +0 | No | +$6 | 02-25 05:30 |
| us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368 | 2 | $204 | 109 | 109 | +0 | No | +$4 | 02-25 05:29 |
| US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? | 7 | $200 | 286 | 0 | +286 | Yes | -$200 | 02-26 06:12 |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | 9 | $200 | 226 | 0 | +226 | Yes | -$200 | 02-26 17:39 |
| will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026 | 283 | $158 | 107 | 59 | +48 | Yes | +$6 | 02-28 09:55 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 6 | $101 | 53 | 53 | +0 | No | +$1 | 05-11 15:12 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | 1 | $100 | 250 | 0 | +250 | Yes | -$100 | 02-24 23:33 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? | 1 | $100 | 405 | 0 | +405 | Yes | -$100 | 02-24 23:23 |
| US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? | 4 | $100 | 125 | 0 | +125 | Yes | -$100 | 02-26 06:14 |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | 1 | $100 | 370 | 0 | +370 | Yes | -$100 | 02-25 00:15 |
| BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 09:00 UTC | 34 | $100 | 167 | 0 | +167 | Up | -$100 | 02-25 08:59 |
| BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 08:30 UTC | 34 | $100 | 240 | 0 | +240 | Up | -$100 | 02-25 08:31 |
| BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 22:45 UTC | 34 | $99 | 238 | 0 | +238 | Up | +$139 | 02-24 22:52 |
| BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 23:00 UTC | 105 | $97 | 98 | 87 | +10 | Down | -$11 | 02-24 23:01 |
| BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 08:45 UTC | 32 | $93 | 161 | 0 | +161 | Up | -$93 | 02-25 08:47 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 9 | $90 | 123 | 0 | +123 | open | — | 06-01 20:06 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | 9 | $90 | 94 | 0 | +94 | No | +$4 | 04-27 00:21 |
| US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? | 3 | $85 | 109 | 0 | +109 | Yes | -$85 | 02-26 17:20 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 5 | $83 | 45 | 45 | +0 | No | +$3 | 05-11 15:12 |
| US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? | 8 | $80 | 122 | 0 | +122 | Yes | -$80 | 02-26 18:18 |
| US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026? | 8 | $80 | 130 | 0 | +130 | Yes | -$80 | 02-26 18:25 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 8 | $80 | 88 | 0 | +88 | open | — | 05-11 15:28 |
| BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 07:45 UTC | 26 | $78 | 144 | 0 | +144 | Up | -$78 | 02-25 07:36 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 7 | $77 | 111 | 3 | +108 | Yes | -$73 | 02-28 05:43 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | 9 | $76 | 46 | 46 | +0 | No | +$16 | 04-25 18:44 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 55 | $76 | 75 | 29 | +46 | No | +$21 | 03-24 23:18 |
| US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? | 2 | $75 | 110 | 0 | +110 | Yes | -$75 | 02-26 06:07 |
| will there be between 10 and 13 us strikes on somalia in february 2026 | 7 | $70 | 82 | 0 | +82 | Yes | +$12 | 02-28 22:30 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 7 | $70 | 101 | 0 | +101 | Yes | -$70 | 05-01 07:38 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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