Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$556

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

76.0%

Resolved

143

Trades

481

lifetime

Volume

$21.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

$57

4 positions

First seen

2026-07-09

last 10-27 01:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

83% 35% +$159

Tech

8% 40% -$63

Politics

8% 21% -$631

Crypto

1% 66% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	+187	$42	16¢	$30	-$13	10-20 12:16
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	+31	$20	68¢	$21	+$1	08-27 20:55
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	+90	$20	6¢	$6	-$15	08-27 23:44
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$14	76¢	$0	+$14	10-26 20:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	23	$4.1K	2,991	2,626	+365	Yes	+$125	08-31 14:15
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	17	$2.9K	1,955	1,801	+154	Yes	+$36	07-29 16:29
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	20	$2.2K	3,005	754	+2,251	No	+$83	07-31 01:48
next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	7	$1.3K	1,956	935	+1,021	Yes	+$194	09-01 17:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$1.1K	1,120	317	+803	No	+$169	07-29 16:29
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	5	$1.1K	770	770	+0	open	—	09-08 16:35
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	8	$976	1,461	350	+1,111	Yes	-$556	08-02 21:47
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	7	$606	586	586	+0	Yes	-$8	10-19 07:10
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	6	$553	1,174	1,174	+0	No	-$503	08-20 01:05
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	6	$354	459	459	+0	open	—	10-26 20:06
will openais astra model be released by september 6 2026	8	$324	493	86	+407	Yes	-$213	09-04 15:38
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	4	$242	400	400	+0	Yes	+$196	09-21 16:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$230	145	145	+0	Yes	+$1	07-29 07:59
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?	5	$204	130	130	+0	open	—	09-18 05:39
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?	2	$200	359	0	+359	Yes	-$200	09-01 16:36
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	1	$186	290	0	+290	open	—	10-27 01:37
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	9	$159	181	181	+0	No	+$59	08-07 03:16
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$158	109	109	+0	No	+$4	09-11 08:46
Will Z.ai be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	2	$123	62	62	+0	No	+$2	08-31 13:06
will the next claude opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026 20260715004553750	4	$122	79	79	+0	Yes	+$31	07-28 00:09
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?	4	$120	69	69	+0	Yes	+$0	08-10 08:04
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?	2	$105	230	0	+230	Yes	-$105	07-27 23:51
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?	3	$103	280	280	-0	Yes	+$48	08-04 17:44
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?	2	$102	376	0	+376	Yes	-$102	09-01 16:37
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	2	$86	165	165	+0	No	+$6	07-27 06:32
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	3	$84	66	66	+0	open	—	10-17 09:46
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	2	$82	150	0	+150	Yes	+$68	09-18 05:38
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$80	1,240	0	+1,240	No	-$80	07-09 10:58
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	2	$75	66	66	+0	Yes	+$7	09-06 03:21
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	1	$74	110	0	+110	open	—	10-21 01:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 01:37:15	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	290	64¢	$186	0x1402ad…
10-26 20:06:02	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	40¢	$14	0x79f810…
10-26 20:06:02	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x172a1b…
10-26 18:35:57	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	40¢	$10	0x5236d4…
10-26 18:35:57	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	40¢	$51	0x0316cd…
10-26 18:02:17	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	260	40¢	$104	0xb5b176…
10-21 01:37:38	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	67¢	$74	0x6c10ee…
10-21 00:30:38	next astra model 6pt1 released by november 15 2026	Yes	BUY	459	37¢	$170	0x99c1f3…
10-20 12:16:56	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	BUY	140	16¢	$22	0xc3cdb0…
10-20 08:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xcd6bfe…
10-20 08:04:26	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x255e34…
10-20 05:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xdf3db2…
10-19 07:10:44	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	509	51¢	$259	0xc1d453…
10-19 04:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x8d94c1…
10-19 03:55:20	Will Iran target Iraq by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0x3bb3f7…
10-19 03:06:08	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	51¢	$39	0x9ad39c…
10-18 06:46:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 06:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x373f17…
10-18 06:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x105b1b…
10-18 06:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc959e9…
10-18 06:13:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 06:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3f0d80…
10-18 05:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xa0a0c3…
10-18 05:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x6d5a52…
10-18 05:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x3384ac…
10-18 05:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x0f77a1…
10-18 05:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x29752c…
10-18 04:19:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 04:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xeb73f4…
10-18 04:14:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 04:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x7b5bb0…
10-18 04:05:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x60310c…
10-18 04:05:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x0b24a2…
10-18 04:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xc78522…
10-18 03:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x25bc3a…
10-18 03:52:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x7e625b…
10-18 03:46:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x00cc12…
10-18 03:41:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x01c290…
10-18 03:32:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x63fd3f…
10-18 03:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6f366d…
10-18 03:20:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xcbcb01…
10-18 03:16:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xae41fb…
10-18 03:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xc55256…
10-18 03:05:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x57bfc7…
10-18 03:05:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xcfdde7…
10-18 03:00:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x06a1bd…
10-18 02:51:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 03:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x94e111…
10-18 02:10:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x0b8a89…
10-17 16:30:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x8cec7a…
10-17 16:28:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x5e6864…
10-17 14:40:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:40 UTC	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x7923f6…
10-17 14:36:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x547884…
10-17 14:36:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x35b458…
10-17 14:05:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xa9e1ee…
10-17 14:05:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x4ed945…
10-17 13:40:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:40 UTC	Up	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xf980cb…
10-17 12:35:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 12:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x911a8f…
10-17 12:35:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 12:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x7a4e41…
10-17 12:30:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x05c06f…
10-17 11:50:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xdc9e44…
10-17 11:46:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x349ab6…
10-17 11:31:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe01aea…
10-17 11:20:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe45df9…
10-17 11:15:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x2d27fb…
10-17 11:10:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x17661e…
10-17 11:05:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe3b73f…
10-17 11:04:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xcfb927…
10-17 11:02:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x55b9d3…
10-17 11:00:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x6aa488…
10-17 11:00:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x41f289…
10-17 10:56:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:55 UTC	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x95edc5…
10-17 10:50:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x560329…
10-17 10:46:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xdf0fa5…
10-17 10:40:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x127a36…
10-17 10:39:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xcc32eb…
10-17 10:32:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xf0facf…
10-17 10:32:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x99af61…
10-17 10:32:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x099f90…
10-17 10:32:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x3bcaec…
10-17 10:32:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x6cd39b…
10-17 10:32:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x5c1d4c…
10-17 10:32:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x4867bc…
10-17 10:32:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x10ea52…
10-17 10:30:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x765e82…
10-17 10:30:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x3b5207…
10-17 10:28:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xadba43…
10-17 09:49:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0xeeae42…
10-17 09:49:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xc063d0…
10-17 09:49:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x656630…
10-17 09:49:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xe54e99…
10-17 09:49:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xaac825…
10-17 09:49:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xec5846…
10-17 09:47:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xecbad1…
10-17 09:47:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xa23998…
10-17 09:46:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x762fbc…
10-17 09:46:02	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	66	97¢	$64	0xffabd9…
10-12 06:59:50	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x8079c9…
09-24 18:36:23	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x992dab…
09-21 16:30:17	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	55¢	$219	0xd3e080…
09-21 15:55:25	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	0¢	$0	0x7d5c62…
09-21 15:04:00	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	6¢	$6	0xa16725…
09-21 15:04:00	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	6¢	$7	0x7ffa3a…
09-21 15:01:43	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x5cbfc4…
09-21 14:21:05	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0xf0fb4b…