Unwelcome-Accident — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$63

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.1%

Resolved

Trades

6,327

lifetime

Volume

$148.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-02 11:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

73% 0% $-210

Other

23% 100% +$174

Crypto

4% 29% $-27

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 412 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	76	$4.4K	4,550	4,570	-20	open	—	04-20 19:21
will iran strike israel on march 10	39	$3.9K	2,493	2,893	-400	open	—	03-12 17:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	31	$3.4K	2,885	2,885	+0	open	—	04-15 22:10
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	101	$3.3K	4,022	5,111	-1,089	open	—	03-22 06:15
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	61	$3.0K	13,457	8,531	+4,926	open	—	04-27 13:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	31	$2.8K	4,012	4,099	-88	open	—	03-01 01:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	33	$2.7K	11,913	11,913	+0	No	+$69	04-25 20:46
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	9	$2.4K	2,037	2,037	+0	open	—	03-31 00:19
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$2.3K	1,770	1,770	+0	open	—	04-17 21:35
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	24	$2.3K	2,115	2,175	-60	open	—	01-30 00:42
will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	17	$2.1K	1,066	1,365	-298	open	—	03-02 00:48
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	61	$1.8K	5,847	2,037	+3,810	open	—	03-29 14:05
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	40	$1.8K	1,689	1,757	-69	Yes	+$94	05-07 20:48
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	17	$1.8K	1,641	1,741	-100	open	—	03-02 00:48
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	49	$1.7K	2,058	2,078	-20	open	—	03-28 03:55
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	9	$1.7K	947	947	+0	open	—	04-16 16:30
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	28	$1.6K	4,652	3,349	+1,304	open	—	01-15 23:24
will israel conduct military action in greater beirut on march 28 2026	33	$1.6K	1,326	1,153	+173	open	—	04-01 00:23
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	39	$1.6K	3,292	3,346	-54	open	—	03-08 03:24
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	15	$1.6K	6,997	4,759	+2,238	open	—	04-09 19:08
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	19	$1.6K	1,659	1,659	+0	open	—	04-16 16:05
will israel strike greater beirut on march 7 2026	10	$1.5K	697	977	-280	open	—	03-07 21:57
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	32	$1.5K	4,088	4,188	-100	open	—	04-13 16:50
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	19	$1.4K	1,242	1,342	-100	open	—	04-21 12:31
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	50	$1.4K	2,144	2,464	-320	open	—	04-01 05:48
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	8	$1.3K	1,278	1,278	+0	open	—	04-07 23:29
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	35	$1.3K	4,156	3,978	+178	open	—	06-14 19:17
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	40	$1.2K	3,358	1,170	+2,188	open	—	04-04 21:35
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	29	$1.2K	4,309	4,279	+30	open	—	04-25 19:31
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	13	$1.2K	1,335	1,335	+0	open	—	04-15 13:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 11:49:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	825	1¢	$11	0xc9f993…
08-02 02:27:39	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	SELL	753	4¢	$32	0xf71e38…
08-02 01:22:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xfe9f28…
08-01 22:18:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0x36d5e1…
08-01 20:23:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	SELL	1,856	1¢	$10	0xbe0e77…
08-01 20:02:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	246	2¢	$4	0xced3a8…
08-01 20:02:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0xbe2ffa…
08-01 20:02:02	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	218	7¢	$15	0xee99f8…
08-01 19:29:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x44610f…
08-01 19:29:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	159	3¢	$4	0xbd9bf9…
08-01 19:16:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x1ebffa…
08-01 19:16:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	172	3¢	$5	0x4ef768…
08-01 19:10:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	109	3¢	$3	0xd05196…
08-01 16:16:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0x6925ae…
08-01 16:16:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0xe8925e…
08-01 15:53:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x905482…
08-01 15:52:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0xd4e247…
08-01 14:35:08	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$1	0x5e6277…
08-01 14:11:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	426	12¢	$53	0xfbb42a…
08-01 02:34:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x5e981b…
08-01 02:28:09	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	667	1¢	$4	0xfb8f37…
08-01 02:26:57	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by july 31 2026 20260709234123316	Yes	BUY	599	1¢	$3	0x077da9…
08-01 02:26:29	iran leadership change by august 31 669	Yes	BUY	536	6¢	$30	0xd9339d…
08-01 02:25:17	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0xa6a4a0…
08-01 02:04:41	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260720155040248	Yes	SELL	51	0¢	$0	0x49d137…
08-01 02:04:18	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	Yes	SELL	85	0¢	$0	0x375ed2…
07-31 17:01:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	23¢	$5	0x1d4d59…
07-31 17:01:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	304	0¢	$0	0x760cb6…
07-30 00:34:02	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	Yes	BUY	85	6¢	$5	0xe6c55d…
07-30 00:32:20	total internet blackout in iran by july 31 2026 20260720155238427	Yes	BUY	306	3¢	$10	0x4053ae…
07-30 00:30:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	304	8¢	$25	0x620b95…
07-30 00:30:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	240	15¢	$36	0x265674…
07-30 00:23:56	total internet blackout in iran by july 31 2026 20260720155238427	Yes	BUY	348	3¢	$10	0x0052f8…
07-28 01:11:37	total internet blackout in iran by july 31 2026 20260720155238427	Yes	BUY	947	2¢	$16	0x26ea69…
07-27 11:45:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	819	1¢	$9	0x1596ac…
07-27 08:03:09	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	248	2¢	$4	0x814c4f…
07-27 08:00:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	400	2¢	$8	0x258a73…
07-27 07:59:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	419	2¢	$8	0x9d3887…
07-27 02:16:30	btc updown 5m 1785118500	Up	SELL	10	35¢	$3	0x53266b…
07-27 02:16:03	btc updown 5m 1785118500	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x4acc78…
07-27 02:14:43	btc updown 5m 1785118200	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xee2252…
07-27 02:05:37	btc updown 5m 1785117900	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x1ddd63…
07-27 02:05:25	btc updown 5m 1785117900	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x8e73b3…
07-27 02:03:09	btc updown 5m 1785117600	Up	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xee80ac…
07-27 01:58:51	btc updown 5m 1785117300	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x55c766…
07-27 01:58:31	btc updown 5m 1785117300	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x137bda…
07-27 01:57:37	btc updown 5m 1785117300	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x21eb01…
07-27 01:56:48	btc updown 5m 1785117300	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x51dd81…
07-27 01:56:10	btc updown 5m 1785117300	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x80a354…
07-27 01:56:06	btc updown 5m 1785117300	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x6ef892…
07-27 01:56:00	btc updown 5m 1785117300	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x5489f0…
07-27 01:48:21	btc updown 5m 1785116700	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x940169…
07-27 01:47:36	btc updown 5m 1785116700	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x92cce4…
07-27 01:46:36	btc updown 5m 1785116700	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xdc50f2…
07-27 01:46:21	btc updown 5m 1785116700	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x18737b…
07-27 01:44:48	btc updown 5m 1785116400	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xb7e316…
07-27 01:44:46	btc updown 5m 1785116400	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xfe94e1…
07-27 01:42:13	btc updown 5m 1785116400	Down	SELL	7	62¢	$4	0x779c37…
07-27 01:41:21	btc updown 5m 1785116400	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xc37d68…
07-27 01:39:01	btc updown 5m 1785116100	Up	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0xc7a294…
07-27 01:38:28	btc updown 5m 1785116100	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe6f747…
07-27 01:36:42	btc updown 5m 1785116100	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x83cfc0…
07-27 01:35:48	btc updown 5m 1785116100	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb63a9f…
07-27 01:35:16	btc updown 5m 1785116100	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x98dddf…
07-27 01:31:34	btc updown 5m 1785115800	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xe54989…
07-27 01:31:33	btc updown 5m 1785115800	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x4207f0…
07-27 01:25:06	btc updown 5m 1785115200	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x31e55a…
07-27 01:23:34	btc updown 5m 1785115200	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x96a692…
07-27 01:22:10	btc updown 5m 1785115200	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xf5a7f8…
07-27 01:21:36	btc updown 5m 1785115200	Up	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0xda7c68…
07-27 01:21:15	btc updown 5m 1785115200	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x98dffd…
07-27 01:20:58	btc updown 5m 1785115200	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x1e79f7…
07-27 01:19:43	btc updown 5m 1785114900	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7267fc…
07-27 01:18:16	btc updown 5m 1785114900	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xbac0a3…
07-27 01:17:25	btc updown 5m 1785114900	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x17a463…
07-27 01:17:24	btc updown 5m 1785114900	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe56321…
07-27 01:11:22	btc updown 5m 1785114600	Up	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x45ef85…
07-27 01:10:39	btc updown 5m 1785114600	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xd8bea4…
07-27 01:09:27	btc updown 5m 1785114300	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf6a0ac…
07-27 01:08:37	btc updown 5m 1785114300	Down	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0xde888b…
07-27 01:08:21	btc updown 5m 1785114300	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xc2f69f…
07-27 01:06:51	btc updown 5m 1785114300	Down	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x1bc150…
07-27 01:06:31	btc updown 5m 1785114300	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x12b07d…
07-27 01:03:12	btc updown 5m 1785114000	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xde09da…
07-27 01:02:30	btc updown 5m 1785114000	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc8fcb5…
07-27 01:01:52	btc updown 5m 1785114000	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x97f4c7…
07-27 01:01:06	btc updown 5m 1785114000	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x85c96c…
07-27 01:00:49	btc updown 5m 1785114000	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x2697c1…
07-27 00:59:46	btc updown 5m 1785113700	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa947fd…
07-27 00:58:49	btc updown 5m 1785113700	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x75f1a7…
07-27 00:58:10	btc updown 5m 1785113700	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xca97e5…
07-27 00:57:42	btc updown 5m 1785113700	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x873fab…
07-27 00:57:22	btc updown 5m 1785113700	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xdec5fe…
07-27 00:56:21	btc updown 5m 1785113700	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x923aad…
07-27 00:55:39	btc updown 5m 1785113700	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x1e02bb…
07-27 00:53:58	btc updown 5m 1785113400	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x415367…
07-27 00:53:30	btc updown 5m 1785113400	Up	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xf42016…
07-27 00:49:19	btc updown 5m 1785113100	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0d01f5…
07-27 00:48:52	btc updown 5m 1785113100	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x65582b…
07-27 00:48:22	btc updown 5m 1785113100	Up	SELL	1	45¢	$1	0xfd3ec3…