Carefree-Beard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.61K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.6%

Resolved

197

Trades

435

lifetime

Volume

$16.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 09-20 19:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Politics

58% 27% -$219

Other

35% 29% -$2,237

Crypto

5% 42% -$76

Sports

2% 27% -$81

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	8	$1.9K	4,380	2,383	+1,997	No	-$631	01-25 18:30
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	13	$1.5K	4,597	4,597	+0	No	+$163	04-29 07:36
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	10	$1.2K	1,032	1,032	+0	Yes	+$806	02-28 08:01
iran strike on us military by february 28	3	$913	770	770	+0	Yes	+$613	02-28 11:16
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	10	$843	880	880	+0	No	+$254	04-21 15:02
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	12	$720	2,242	2,242	+0	No	-$197	04-29 07:36
us evacuates beirut embassy by march 31	5	$661	1,056	1,056	+0	No	-$135	03-03 23:45
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	6	$454	4,058	4,058	+0	No	-$326	03-23 11:16
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	7	$380	2,536	2,536	+0	No	-$234	03-19 12:23
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?	4	$370	4,156	0	+4,156	No	-$370	03-02 15:12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	4	$252	316	316	+0	No	+$50	04-21 20:58
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	4	$245	2,636	2,636	+0	No	-$223	04-21 20:57
nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	8	$239	4,291	0	+4,291	No	-$239	03-02 19:10
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$223	2,171	2,171	+0	No	-$117	03-15 20:27
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	2	$183	1,264	1,264	+0	No	-$157	03-30 10:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	2	$182	2,089	2,009	+80	No	-$18	04-23 07:39
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02?	3	$168	110	110	+0	Yes	+$52	05-02 13:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$150	304	295	+10	Yes	+$30	04-23 17:40
epl mac not 2026 03 04 spread home 2pt5	1	$150	629	0	+629	Nottingham Forest FC	-$150	03-04 19:02
lal rea mad 2026 03 22 rea	2	$150	120	120	+0	Yes	+$90	03-22 22:02
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	4	$145	2,475	0	+2,475	No	-$145	02-04 17:43
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 2pt5	2	$133	96	96	+0	Spain	+$46	07-02 20:53
nba cle bkn 2026 03 01	4	$130	1,100	100	+1,000	Cavaliers	-$2	03-01 23:17
sea juv pis 2026 03 07 spread home 1pt5	5	$125	91	91	+0	Juventus FC	+$33	03-07 21:14
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$119	2,102	0	+2,102	Yes	-$119	02-28 22:22
will france strike iran by march 31	2	$113	302	302	+0	No	-$87	03-11 19:49
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?	1	$108	180	0	+180	No	-$108	05-02 13:56
wta parry day 2026 08 03	3	$108	250	96	+154	Kayla Day	-$28	08-03 17:40
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jonas Forejtek	2	$103	61	61	+0	Zdenek Kolar	+$19	04-30 11:36
epl mac not 2026 03 04 mac	1	$100	188	0	+188	No	-$100	03-04 20:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-20 19:34:01	Dziki Warszawa vs. SC RASTA Vechta	SC RASTA Vechta	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x3d68d8…
09-20 18:05:37	Dziki Warszawa vs. SC RASTA Vechta	SC RASTA Vechta	BUY	33	40¢	$13	0x6b9018…
09-20 18:05:27	Dziki Warszawa vs. SC RASTA Vechta	SC RASTA Vechta	BUY	27	40¢	$11	0x3d58ec…
09-20 15:35:57	Salon Vilpas vs. CSM Oradea	CSM Oradea	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x5b0fd7…
08-08 13:41:21	chi yun ron 2026 08 08 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x6a87e5…
08-08 13:41:18	chi yun ron 2026 08 08 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x3d632e…
08-08 13:13:49	chi ygb tie 2026 08 08 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x90486d…
08-03 19:35:51	scop cel dfc 2026 08 03 spread home 1pt5	Celtic FC	BUY	91	42¢	$38	0x60dc8b…
08-03 18:38:11	wta boulter cross 2026 08 03	Kayla Cross	SELL	40	99¢	$39	0x5d9f76…
08-03 18:14:56	wta boulter cross 2026 08 03	Kayla Cross	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x11a1c8…
08-03 17:40:00	wta parry day 2026 08 03	Diane Parry	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0xa87898…
08-03 17:24:33	wta parry day 2026 08 03	Kayla Day	SELL	96	41¢	$39	0x97d6f0…
08-03 17:18:15	wta parry day 2026 08 03	Kayla Day	BUY	96	50¢	$48	0x183e16…
08-03 17:16:44	wta kalinin bondar 2026 08 03	Anhelina Kalinina	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xd6341b…
08-03 17:14:09	wta kalinin bondar 2026 08 03	Anhelina Kalinina	BUY	68	29¢	$20	0x86d736…
08-03 17:13:05	wta pegula eala 2026 08 02	Alexandra Eala	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x85e1f5…
08-02 22:11:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	92	15¢	$14	0x4a13fa…
08-02 22:03:45	wta pegula eala 2026 08 02	Alexandra Eala	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0xa1b581…
08-02 22:03:14	wta wan bejlek 2026 08 03	Sara Bejlek	SELL	33	91¢	$30	0xfec2a5…
08-02 21:34:35	wta wan bejlek 2026 08 03	Sara Bejlek	BUY	33	54¢	$18	0xb0d143…
08-02 21:34:17	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	SELL	418	3¢	$11	0x6ad09c…
08-02 21:34:17	abu musa island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720011758216	Yes	SELL	370	2¢	$8	0x60b6f8…
08-01 19:42:48	abu musa island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720011758216	Yes	BUY	370	5¢	$20	0x2c3b3b…
08-01 19:37:47	hengam island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014859847	Yes	BUY	418	6¢	$25	0x7911c6…
08-01 13:25:11	itf cengiz curmi 2026 08 01	Francesca Curmi	BUY	38	55¢	$21	0x9459b5…
08-01 13:14:18	clf mci int 2026 07 31 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x506c04…
08-01 13:04:50	clf mci int 2026 07 31 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb2b030…
07-31 22:18:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	364	5¢	$17	0xe827b2…
07-31 21:02:35	wta kalieva stearns 2026 07 31	Peyton Stearns	SELL	44	62¢	$28	0x75dd41…
07-31 20:57:03	wta kalieva stearns 2026 07 31	Peyton Stearns	BUY	44	63¢	$28	0x0834a7…
07-31 20:30:42	clf bc bar 2026 07 31 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe7a2ae…
07-31 20:20:51	clf bc bar 2026 07 31 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	11	50¢	$5	0x3b7d03…
07-31 20:20:42	clf bc bar 2026 07 31 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0xf948ce…
07-31 19:29:05	clf bc bar 2026 07 31 first half total 1pt5	Over	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0xad3a70…
07-31 19:23:11	clf bc bar 2026 07 31 first half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xca1e1b…
07-31 19:20:33	clf bc bar 2026 07 31 first half total 0pt5	Over	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x40b307…
07-31 19:08:30	clf bc bar 2026 07 31 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	45	53¢	$24	0x93a737…
07-30 22:05:05	wta dart preston 2026 07 30	Harriet Dart	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0x43593f…
07-25 18:54:39	pol lpo cra 2026 07 25 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x0e4397…
07-25 18:51:42	Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-07-25?	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x09f82b…
07-06 11:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc1417f…
07-06 11:31:11	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	350	1¢	$4	0x079fad…
07-03 23:40:26	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	356	5¢	$18	0x1093e1…
07-03 23:38:44	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	603	3¢	$18	0x9360c3…
07-03 20:02:44	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 first half total 2pt5	Over	BUY	165	17¢	$28	0x2c2420…
07-03 19:44:28	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	106	33¢	$35	0x1e36a7…
07-02 21:29:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0xe0222f…
07-02 20:54:23	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x5ad93b…
07-02 20:53:17	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 2pt5	Spain	SELL	96	93¢	$89	0x4d3af2…
07-02 20:29:38	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	96	45¢	$44	0xdcb7d8…
07-02 20:03:32	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	3¢	$10	0x76235d…
07-02 20:03:10	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	603	3¢	$20	0x230e95…
07-02 20:02:04	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 goals lamine yamal gte1	Yes	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x9eb3c8…
05-22 15:37:45	Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik	Alexander Bublik	BUY	35	49¢	$17	0xd41052…
05-22 12:56:29	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	279	4¢	$10	0x303cab…
05-22 12:22:18	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	11¢	$15	0xa7096f…
05-22 12:21:41	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0x0979ae…
05-22 12:19:51	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	8¢	$5	0xa5d72e…
05-22 12:19:44	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xfbc3a6…
05-10 13:28:41	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	33	39¢	$13	0xdceea9…
05-10 13:21:39	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Shanxi Loongs	SELL	60	22¢	$13	0xda9c4a…
05-10 13:00:10	Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions	Shanxi Loongs	BUY	60	20¢	$12	0x010385…
05-10 12:59:47	Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)	Aston Villa FC	SELL	32	39¢	$12	0x018a69…
05-10 11:33:16	Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)	Aston Villa FC	BUY	32	38¢	$12	0x04ab1d…
05-10 11:31:33	RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x9a1d20…
05-09 23:08:37	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	Yes	BUY	933	2¢	$14	0x307d08…
05-02 21:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	112	2¢	$2	0x7e68fc…
05-02 21:28:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x5ac881…
05-02 21:28:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x2941fb…
05-02 21:28:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?	Yes	BUY	740	0¢	$3	0x04004b…
05-02 21:27:48	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?	Yes	SELL	939	0¢	$3	0x15bb9e…
05-02 17:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x06b7cf…
05-02 13:56:12	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	180	60¢	$108	0x7481ad…
05-02 13:53:20	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0xb74ee4…
05-02 12:34:02	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	89	53¢	$47	0xa02b16…
05-02 12:33:56	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x4805c3…
05-02 12:25:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	240	21¢	$50	0x59d89f…
05-02 12:25:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	514	2¢	$13	0x27fcd6…
05-01 15:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0xbd2a97…
05-01 13:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x975f06…
05-01 12:27:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	18¢	$45	0x5ffed3…
04-30 23:21:46	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?	Yes	BUY	939	1¢	$5	0x97fd97…
04-30 23:19:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	536	7¢	$40	0x33808d…
04-30 20:57:02	FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xcbd541…
04-30 18:48:00	FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	51	43¢	$22	0x4763c2…
04-30 16:17:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x987a4e…
04-30 16:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	21	33¢	$7	0xab854a…
04-30 16:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	22	25¢	$5	0x7554df…
04-30 16:10:32	Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5)	Andreeva	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x1b2d99…
04-30 15:00:14	Nava vs. Hurkacz: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5	Under	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x714e46…
04-30 14:26:12	La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Alina Charaeva	Xinyu Wang	SELL	45	65¢	$30	0x84e588…
04-30 14:22:50	Cagliari: Mariano Navone vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x603669…
04-30 14:22:02	Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5)	Andreeva	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x8ef51e…
04-30 13:08:12	Cagliari: Mariano Navone vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x775f27…
04-30 12:55:12	La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Alina Charaeva	Xinyu Wang	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xe71f72…
04-30 12:54:52	Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx	Casper Ruud	SELL	41	0¢	$0	0x572379…
04-30 11:36:54	Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx	Casper Ruud	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xe2bc5b…
04-30 11:36:10	Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jonas Forejtek	Zdenek Kolar	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0xdd0f2f…
04-30 10:37:44	Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jonas Forejtek	Zdenek Kolar	BUY	61	69¢	$42	0x9c350a…
04-29 22:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	17	40¢	$7	0x6087a8…