Ragged-Gaffe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$77

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,573

lifetime

Volume

$1.21M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$772

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-10 21:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

68% 33% $-77

Other

29% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	87	$134.7K	70,751	70,751	+0	open	—	03-15 19:23
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	16	$129.6K	66,558	66,558	+0	open	—	04-16 03:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	86	$75.5K	47,440	47,440	+0	open	—	03-24 23:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	106	$61.7K	32,466	32,466	+0	open	—	03-06 21:57
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	15	$55.5K	32,498	32,498	+0	open	—	02-10 00:07
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	4	$42.4K	22,096	22,096	+0	open	—	04-23 21:21
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	39	$40.3K	45,499	0	+45,499	open	—	04-01 05:38
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	37	$37.7K	19,046	19,046	+0	open	—	02-09 09:24
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	86	$33.1K	20,396	20,396	+0	open	—	04-17 21:23
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	6	$27.1K	18,020	18,010	+10	open	—	04-06 08:24
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	73	$23.7K	16,147	8,150	+7,997	open	—	03-02 12:43
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	4	$22.3K	12,000	11,925	+75	open	—	03-19 06:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	50	$22.3K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	04-06 07:21
us forces enter iran by march 7	8	$22.1K	22,972	0	+22,972	open	—	03-06 08:14
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	3	$21.1K	20,000	3,000	+17,000	open	—	05-11 13:10
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	58	$20.8K	14,120	10,708	+3,411	open	—	03-12 16:29
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	45	$20.7K	12,954	12,954	+0	open	—	01-30 11:27
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	14	$19.6K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-27 13:38
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	63	$19.5K	12,305	12,305	+0	open	—	01-30 11:52
trump out as president by march 31	11	$19.1K	7,257	12,343	-5,086	open	—	03-09 05:40
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	6	$19.0K	15,010	15,010	+0	open	—	04-01 00:58
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	10	$18.5K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-15 10:19
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	29	$18.0K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-29 06:26
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	32	$17.6K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-20 22:26
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	8	$17.3K	9,209	9,209	+0	open	—	03-04 17:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	33	$16.9K	18,374	0	+18,374	open	—	05-15 22:31
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	18	$16.5K	10,368	8,368	+2,000	open	—	03-12 15:59
will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	42	$15.0K	8,795	10,885	-2,090	open	—	07-08 08:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	9	$13.6K	15,938	15,938	+0	open	—	03-23 01:16
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	10	$12.9K	1,244	13,136	-11,892	open	—	06-19 23:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-10 21:20:35	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	6,900	36¢	$2,450	0x3b1ceb…
07-08 08:07:43	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x1c1730…
07-08 08:05:53	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	9	86¢	$7	0x153c2d…
07-08 07:13:35	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	67	86¢	$57	0x1bddfa…
07-08 06:24:34	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	192	86¢	$165	0xef9b41…
07-08 06:24:04	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	424	86¢	$364	0xd92e45…
07-08 05:51:55	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	33	86¢	$28	0xebb6b9…
07-08 05:27:41	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	115	86¢	$99	0x20b137…
07-08 05:00:34	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	116	86¢	$100	0x6b7519…
07-08 04:04:23	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x90b217…
07-08 04:02:29	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xb3c758…
07-08 03:05:02	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	20	86¢	$18	0x0db679…
07-08 02:48:04	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	130	86¢	$111	0x7b410b…
07-08 02:27:16	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	1,334	85¢	$1,134	0x3062fb…
07-08 02:12:07	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	118	85¢	$100	0x9151f9…
07-08 02:02:47	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x69066b…
07-08 01:52:07	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xd4fe9b…
07-08 01:45:10	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	197	85¢	$168	0x0cbe5a…
07-08 01:42:26	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	1,850	84¢	$1,554	0x436a7f…
07-08 01:38:08	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	250	85¢	$212	0x9d2618…
07-08 01:37:47	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	1,000	85¢	$850	0x0f8849…
07-06 04:27:35	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	1,641	80¢	$1,313	0x1f9fd2…
07-05 22:12:35	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	1,322	77¢	$1,018	0xddd004…
07-05 22:12:07	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	1,922	78¢	$1,499	0xfd3538…
07-02 12:40:20	will spain reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120763	Yes	SELL	1,000	87¢	$870	0x6e84f9…
06-30 07:58:53	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	No	BUY	674	99¢	$668	0x7cd3d2…
06-29 22:38:52	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	SELL	1,190	25¢	$298	0x50795b…
06-29 22:14:43	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Paraguay	BUY	2,381	21¢	$500	0x24a292…
06-29 11:30:19	will brazil reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120743	Yes	SELL	4,331	73¢	$3,162	0x006bde…
06-29 09:59:56	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x3c0c5a…
06-29 09:23:29	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	BUY	486	88¢	$428	0xa7d95d…
06-29 09:22:01	will brazil reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120743	Yes	BUY	1,579	74¢	$1,169	0xed9bfc…
06-26 04:37:53	will brazil reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120743	Yes	BUY	5,252	70¢	$3,701	0x86b9bb…
06-25 00:26:40	will belgium reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120759	Yes	SELL	165	57¢	$94	0x735142…
06-25 00:00:53	will belgium reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120759	Yes	SELL	855	57¢	$488	0x4b9d5f…
06-24 13:29:31	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2cab3b…
06-24 00:25:40	will panama reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120781	No	SELL	283	97¢	$275	0xb36f57…
06-21 23:15:29	will panama reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120781	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x6a923f…
06-21 19:00:25	will panama reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120781	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0x88c322…
06-21 15:51:59	will panama reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120781	No	SELL	51	97¢	$50	0x0705c2…
06-19 23:02:23	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	9,000	90¢	$8,100	0x65045e…
06-19 06:36:20	will panama reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120781	No	SELL	17	97¢	$17	0xd49d8e…
06-19 03:49:19	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	490	91¢	$446	0xa7827e…
06-19 03:47:50	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	358	94¢	$337	0x211bd9…
06-19 02:32:52	will panama reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120781	No	SELL	1,013	96¢	$972	0x88f233…
06-18 23:59:10	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	No	SELL	65	99¢	$64	0x9657f2…
06-18 00:43:29	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xb752a2…
06-18 00:43:29	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x7503c7…
06-18 00:42:02	Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?	No	SELL	545	98¢	$534	0x43ff2d…
06-18 00:30:44	will panama reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120781	No	BUY	301	95¢	$286	0xc41c8c…
06-17 02:55:24	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x29f682…
06-17 02:55:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	65	70¢	$45	0x0a7655…
06-14 03:27:27	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0xdb7752…
06-14 03:27:27	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	280	67¢	$188	0x7f2885…
06-14 02:54:36	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	2,236	90¢	$2,007	0xb492cd…
06-14 02:52:40	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xff6fce…
06-14 02:46:06	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	255	68¢	$173	0xbf81bd…
06-14 02:46:01	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0x3b0e41…
06-14 02:45:57	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0x43b72f…
06-14 02:44:22	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0xbf9d29…
06-14 02:43:03	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0xd4e168…
06-14 02:42:58	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	305	68¢	$207	0xf3cacb…
06-14 02:42:58	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0x506131…
06-14 02:42:54	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0x6781ec…
06-14 02:42:46	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0xe54e37…
06-14 02:42:42	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	95	68¢	$65	0xf3dc2a…
06-13 11:54:21	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	16	77¢	$12	0x3359ce…
06-13 11:54:19	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x5b33cc…
06-13 11:54:16	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	80	77¢	$62	0xa4d408…
06-13 11:41:54	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0xcbe2d3…
06-13 11:41:10	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0xb544c0…
06-13 11:41:07	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0xc674bf…
06-13 11:35:10	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	222	77¢	$171	0x288d2d…
06-13 11:23:34	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0xc3d1c6…
06-13 10:52:48	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x4ed80d…
06-13 10:22:07	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x21e5f9…
06-13 09:51:21	will portugal reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120775	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x05afac…
06-13 09:21:40	will australia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120748	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0x8b53a7…
06-13 09:13:03	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xb276c3…
06-13 09:13:03	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x2ee270…
06-13 09:12:54	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x80bfc5…
06-13 09:12:33	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xb279aa…
06-13 09:09:55	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xdbb71d…
06-13 09:09:40	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	56	94¢	$53	0xc45395…
06-13 09:08:37	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x34e175…
06-13 09:08:19	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xb91b55…
06-13 09:07:27	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xd69324…
06-13 09:05:01	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x420b32…
06-13 09:04:45	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x5d3b4a…
06-13 09:04:15	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x374d10…
06-13 09:02:51	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x6a48f1…
06-13 09:01:51	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x86c280…
06-13 09:00:01	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x071598…
06-13 08:55:58	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xb08e27…
06-13 08:49:54	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	61	94¢	$57	0xa8ed4f…
06-13 08:43:15	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x3c55d3…
06-13 08:42:12	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xe0c451…
06-13 08:42:06	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x860a8a…
06-13 08:38:06	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xef151e…
06-13 08:34:43	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0xb30afe…