Realized P&L
+$66.1K
Unrealized P&L
-$752
Hit rate
79.3%
Resolved
154
Trades
2,007
lifetime
Volume
$1.72M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$855
Open exposure
$21.1K
6 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 07-29 01:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 65 days
Categories
Politics
52%
54%
+$35,524
Other
46%
66%
+$26,557
Sports
2%
75%
+$3,975
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-29).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | -10,000 | -$9,294 | 99¢ | $-9860 | -$566 | 06-19 03:47 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -10,000 | -$8,490 | 97¢ | $-9745 | -$1,255 | 07-29 01:03 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | -500 | -$470 | 99¢ | $-494 | -$24 | 06-13 05:48 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | -500 | -$455 | 98¢ | $-489 | -$34 | 07-29 01:04 | |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | No | -495 | -$1,609 | 98¢ | $-483 | +$1,126 | 06-19 23:02 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | -10 | -$10 | 99¢ | $-10 | $0 | 07-29 01:04 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us x iran ceasefire by march 15 | 87 | $134.7K | 70,751 | 70,751 | +0 | No | +$6,628 | 03-15 19:23 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026 | 16 | $129.6K | 66,558 | 66,558 | +0 | No | +$3,147 | 04-16 03:50 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 86 | $75.5K | 47,440 | 47,440 | +0 | No | +$4,958 | 03-24 23:18 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 6 | 106 | $61.7K | 32,466 | 32,466 | +0 | No | +$3,113 | 03-06 21:57 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 15 | $55.5K | 32,498 | 32,498 | +0 | Yes | -$1,525 | 02-10 00:07 |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | 30 | $46.6K | 27,505 | 59,617 | -32,112 | No | +$15,703 | 06-04 02:40 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? | 25 | $45.5K | 25,000 | 25,000 | +0 | Yes | +$0 | 07-01 02:35 |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | 3 | $43.6K | 40,000 | 19,985 | +20,015 | Yes | +$2,037 | 06-24 00:35 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 4 | $42.4K | 22,096 | 22,096 | +0 | No | +$1,689 | 04-23 21:21 |
| us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31 | 39 | $40.3K | 45,499 | 0 | +45,499 | No | +$5,220 | 04-01 05:38 |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | 37 | $37.7K | 19,046 | 19,046 | +0 | Yes | +$184 | 02-09 09:24 |
| us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894 | 86 | $33.1K | 20,396 | 20,396 | +0 | No | +$998 | 04-17 21:23 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | 47 | $30.9K | 27,000 | 12,000 | +15,000 | Yes | +$1,620 | 06-30 21:56 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | 6 | $27.1K | 18,020 | 18,010 | +10 | Yes | -$835 | 04-06 08:24 |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? | 11 | $26.8K | 20,000 | 20,000 | +0 | Yes | +$800 | 06-24 02:20 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-04? | 12 | $25.8K | 15,000 | 15,000 | +0 | Yes | +$900 | 07-04 22:48 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | 4 | $25.6K | 16,000 | 16,000 | +0 | No | -$1,290 | 06-21 00:36 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | 2 | $25.6K | 35,000 | 0 | +35,000 | Yes | +$9,450 | 06-24 05:33 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 2 | 73 | $23.7K | 16,147 | 8,150 | +7,997 | No | +$520 | 03-02 12:43 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 4 | $22.3K | 12,000 | 11,925 | +75 | No | +$1,019 | 03-19 06:47 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 50 | $22.3K | 15,000 | 15,000 | +0 | Yes | -$626 | 04-06 07:21 |
| us forces enter iran by march 7 | 8 | $22.1K | 22,972 | 0 | +22,972 | No | +$918 | 03-06 08:14 |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | 16 | $22.0K | 12,641 | 13,136 | -495 | open | — | 06-19 23:02 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | 3 | $21.1K | 20,000 | 3,000 | +17,000 | Yes | +$1,798 | 05-11 13:10 |
| us forces enter iran by march 14 337 | 58 | $20.8K | 14,120 | 10,708 | +3,411 | No | +$523 | 03-12 16:29 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 45 | $20.7K | 12,954 | 12,954 | +0 | No | -$1,182 | 01-30 11:27 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 14 | $19.6K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | No | +$230 | 03-27 13:38 |
| israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453 | 63 | $19.5K | 12,305 | 12,305 | +0 | No | +$572 | 01-30 11:52 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 11 | $19.1K | 7,257 | 12,343 | -5,086 | No | -$40 | 03-09 05:40 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | 6 | $19.0K | 15,010 | 15,010 | +0 | Yes | -$779 | 04-01 00:58 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||