Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$544

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

71.6%

Resolved

313

Trades

562

lifetime

Volume

$12.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$170

4 positions

First seen

2026-07-17

last 10-27 20:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Other

61% 56% -$12

Politics

36% 77% +$570

Tech

2% 60% -$6

Crypto

1% 70% -$24

Sports

0% 100% +$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	—	+96	$50	100¢	$96	+$46	10-26 11:24
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No		+62	$50	93¢	$57	+$7	10-23 20:33
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No		+20	$14	84¢	$17	+$2	10-24 11:31
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes		+98	$38	1¢	$1	-$37	10-26 00:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 160T tokens the week of September 28?	5	$227	137	137	+0	No	+$26	10-04 19:50
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 17 2026	4	$183	195	195	+0	No	+$34	10-14 11:41
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$168	126	126	+0	No	+$83	10-13 10:45
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026?	5	$160	328	0	+328	Yes	-$160	09-30 21:26
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?	7	$157	400	0	+400	Yes	-$157	10-03 10:42
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	4	$148	112	112	+0	open	—	09-30 20:53
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	2	$140	102	102	+0	No	+$63	10-04 23:32
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	6	$139	478	0	+478	Yes	-$139	09-30 06:59
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	2	$133	83	83	+0	No	+$33	10-27 20:04
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	3	$130	171	0	+171	Yes	-$130	10-02 20:27
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	2	$118	68	68	+0	No	+$18	10-25 23:24
shipping targeted in hormuz on october 16 2026	3	$118	97	97	+0	Yes	+$18	10-14 19:54
United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 83% to 84%?	2	$116	106	106	+0	Yes	+$96	10-20 20:04
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	3	$109	151	100	+51	Yes	+$135	10-06 20:02
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	2	$106	63	63	+0	No	+$7	10-13 19:58
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	2	$102	56	56	+0	Yes	+$2	10-10 19:52
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	2	$102	66	66	+0	open	—	10-11 23:54
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	2	$98	81	81	+0	No	+$0	10-17 10:26
Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	2	$95	53	53	+0	Yes	+$7	10-11 19:59
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	2	$93	83	83	+0	Yes	-$7	10-26 19:38
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	2	$91	139	139	+0	No	+$14	10-04 04:43
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	3	$89	105	105	+0	Yes	+$28	09-29 06:54
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	4	$88	126	64	+62	No	-$26	10-15 16:09
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 5?	2	$87	57	57	+0	No	+$27	10-05 10:25
israel military action against lebanon on october 19	4	$87	55	55	+0	Yes	+$3	10-19 20:12
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	4	$86	112	112	+0	open	—	09-30 16:46
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	2	$86	50	50	+0	No	+$9	10-23 20:33
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	4	$84	49	49	+0	Yes	+$6	10-17 11:25
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	2	$84	62	62	+0	No	+$39	10-13 10:54
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 28?	3	$83	96	0	+96	Yes	+$13	09-26 00:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on October 29?	No	BUY	52	57¢	$30	0xdcb6c9…
10-27 20:37:08	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 14.5% to 15.5%?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x32212a…
10-27 20:18:08	Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	70	34¢	$24	0x964532…
10-27 20:16:36	Will Hyatt Hotels (H) Q3 system-wide hotels RevPAR be above $152?	No	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0x98fc39…
10-27 20:15:05	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 29?	No	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x5e156d…
10-27 20:04:35	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0xcff1a6…
10-27 16:03:24	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	71	56¢	$40	0xf2edc3…
10-27 10:53:44	Will Trump say "Barbecue" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xd22114…
10-27 10:49:02	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	38¢	$10	0xd52156…
10-27 10:49:02	Will Trump say "Barbecue" during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	BUY	102	38¢	$39	0xb66134…
10-27 00:11:36	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 27?	No	BUY	48	54¢	$26	0xd82b34…
10-26 20:07:27	Will RZP-Zehut win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0x7937b0…
10-26 19:53:08	Will Trump say "River" or "Fish" or "Fishing" during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	No	BUY	146	34¢	$50	0x850512…
10-26 19:38:05	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	83	52¢	$43	0x23fdaf…
10-26 16:02:42	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	46¢	$6	0xfc9a90…
10-26 16:02:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 28?	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x341d5d…
10-26 11:25:47	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	31¢	$8	0x5b9332…
10-26 11:25:45	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Yes	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0x4eca1c…
10-26 11:24:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x2c22f7…
10-26 11:22:45	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x24e013…
10-26 11:21:14	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x3f54bf…
10-26 00:11:45	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	98	39¢	$38	0x93f324…
10-26 00:10:15	Will Andy Burnham say "Scotland" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0xd9f4f2…
10-25 23:24:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	No	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x369c37…
10-25 15:52:51	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	56¢	$19	0x193cf5…
10-25 15:51:20	Scorigami in Week 7 of the 2026-27 NFL season?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x0aee9e…
10-25 15:40:48	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	46¢	$6	0xfe851d…
10-25 15:40:47	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $21M and $22.5M?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x3b8626…
10-25 11:17:54	Will Warsh say "Price" 30+ times during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	42	41¢	$17	0x7fed45…
10-25 11:16:23	Will Warsh say "Pressure" or "Stagflation" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	93	41¢	$38	0x057f5f…
10-25 11:14:53	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 14.5% to 15.5%?	No	BUY	26	52¢	$14	0x6b40fe…
10-25 11:13:23	Will "Korea" or "Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	62	54¢	$33	0xbf7d2f…
10-25 10:50:44	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?	Yes	SELL	13	95¢	$13	0xd7c135…
10-25 10:33:44	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $21M and $22.5M?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x0a66a0…
10-24 16:04:51	Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $21M and $22.5M?	No	BUY	49	54¢	$27	0xfb2e58…
10-24 15:55:15	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?	Yes	SELL	19	95¢	$18	0x5daca4…
10-24 15:48:03	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?	No	SELL	40	14¢	$6	0x948422…
10-24 11:31:33	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$14	0x24cc55…
10-24 11:30:03	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xd9d359…
10-24 11:28:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x37320e…
10-24 11:27:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x818ec0…
10-24 11:25:30	Will Coca-Cola say "Zero Sugar" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x252e06…
10-24 00:16:41	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 12.5% to 13.5%?	Yes	BUY	131	21¢	$27	0xa737fe…
10-24 00:16:33	Will Trump say "Maduro" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	33	50¢	$17	0xff57b9…
10-24 00:15:03	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	221	19¢	$42	0xfa50db…
10-24 00:13:32	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x6b068a…
10-24 00:12:02	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?	Yes	BUY	26	88¢	$23	0x3b8408…
10-24 00:10:32	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?	Yes	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0xc03634…
10-24 00:09:00	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 25?	Yes	BUY	19	89¢	$17	0x6a0891…
10-23 20:33:33	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x7be9ef…
10-23 20:33:33	Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x750380…
10-23 20:32:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	88¢	$12	0xe0721f…
10-23 20:30:32	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	56¢	$30	0x8cfbe4…
10-23 20:29:02	Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	67	74¢	$50	0x328396…
10-23 20:27:30	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	Yes	BUY	82	45¢	$37	0x2b2ac0…
10-23 20:26:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x30f060…
10-21 16:21:17	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	42¢	$11	0x5daa1a…
10-21 16:19:45	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	No	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x39bdce…
10-21 16:18:15	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	87	40¢	$35	0x10af3d…
10-21 16:18:08	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 80-82%?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xc718c1…
10-21 16:16:38	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	88	31¢	$27	0xb372d9…
10-21 11:14:11	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x0005be…
10-21 11:12:41	Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0xed747e…
10-21 11:11:09	Will Procter & Gamble say "Competition" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	33	52¢	$17	0xd91abb…
10-21 11:09:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	86¢	$35	0x1ac051…
10-21 00:11:09	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?	Yes	BUY	16	87¢	$14	0xb4f8ff…
10-21 00:07:59	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	12¢	$6	0x9fbeaa…
10-21 00:04:33	Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $8.5B?	No	BUY	11	58¢	$7	0x907047…
10-21 00:03:03	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?	Yes	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0x79eefa…
10-21 00:01:32	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0xab0a7a…
10-20 20:10:35	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xe8c6fe…
10-20 20:09:03	Spotify Monthly Active Users above 790M in Q3?	No	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x3caaa4…
10-20 20:04:50	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 83% to 84%?	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0x936702…
10-20 19:59:59	Spotify Monthly Active Users above 790M in Q3?	No	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x8cb220…
10-20 19:51:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	39¢	$23	0xb85429…
10-20 15:48:51	Will Netflix say "SI" / "Super Intelligence" during earnings call?	No	BUY	37	75¢	$28	0x209a87…
10-20 15:44:33	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 20?	Yes	SELL	16	98¢	$15	0x7eb6c4…
10-20 11:14:32	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	52	46¢	$24	0x30cfc5…
10-20 11:10:39	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 18?	Yes	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0xb47afa…
10-20 11:10:39	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	99	3¢	$3	0x9a0349…
10-20 11:10:38	Will Tesla say "SI" / "Super Intelligence" during earnings call?	No	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x63996e…
10-20 11:09:08	Will Tesla say "Rocket" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	33	34¢	$11	0xdc072a…
10-20 11:07:38	Will Trump say "Veteran" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	82	38¢	$31	0x5f3a1c…
10-20 11:06:06	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	BUY	134	22¢	$29	0xa9df44…
10-19 23:53:20	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x99866e…
10-19 23:51:48	Will Andy Burnham say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	33	29¢	$9	0xf564d9…
10-19 23:46:21	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$25	0xc2fc0c…
10-19 23:46:21	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 18?	No	SELL	19	42¢	$8	0x990e9a…
10-19 20:18:33	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?	Yes	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x91392a…
10-19 20:12:51	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	SELL	13	97¢	$12	0x592d5e…
10-19 20:12:51	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 total revenue per available seat mile 20¢ to 20.5¢?	No	BUY	67	32¢	$21	0x536342…
10-19 20:11:20	Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.8B?	No	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x853e48…
10-19 19:27:51	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	42	26¢	$11	0x146d6f…
10-19 16:42:21	Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	29	74¢	$22	0x46fe46…
10-19 16:32:51	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0x1af5fe…
10-19 11:20:12	Will Trump say "Drag Show" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	No	BUY	99	36¢	$36	0x48596d…
10-19 11:18:42	Will General Motors say "Oil", "Gas" or "Gasoline" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0xc9e8e6…
10-19 10:41:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	38¢	$22	0xd06dd7…
10-19 10:41:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x161b5f…
10-19 00:06:48	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	141	23¢	$32	0x46a261…