Lumpy-Kangaroo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

7.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$888

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 07-08 16:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

42% — —

Crypto

40% 0% $-9

Other

12% 0% $-7

Sports

6% 100% +$8

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	9	$149	95	95	+0	open	—	04-04 16:48
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	11	$94	90	49	+41	open	—	04-29 14:10
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	3	$92	51	51	+0	open	—	07-01 03:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$70	50	50	+0	open	—	04-04 16:37
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	4	$66	70	0	+70	open	—	04-25 16:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$64	50	40	+10	open	—	05-11 03:43
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of April?	3	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	04-30 18:53
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$24	70	50	+20	open	—	03-27 05:40
ufc bra2 lon 2026 02 28	1	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	02-28 02:16
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	1	$19	20	0	+20	open	—	05-11 03:48
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	2	$18	23	0	+23	open	—	04-27 04:46
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	2	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-01 22:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	04-22 19:28
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	2	$13	10	30	-20	open	—	07-08 16:31
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?	3	$13	22	0	+22	open	—	04-23 03:50
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	2	$12	20	0	+20	open	—	04-14 03:30
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$11	40	0	+40	Yes	$-1	05-01 22:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?	1	$9	10	0	+10	No	$-9	05-13 03:57
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$9	0	10	-10	open	—	06-16 19:39
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	04-20 04:19
will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 795 942	2	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	03-20 21:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	05-11 03:43
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	04-25 18:42
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$9	0	10	-10	open	—	06-16 19:38
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-13 03:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	04-05 05:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$8	0	10	-10	open	—	06-16 19:38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-11 03:44
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of April?	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	04-20 07:00
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?	1	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	04-05 05:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 16:31:19	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x5204cd…
07-01 03:53:59	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x547dcb…
06-22 17:59:23	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x2652d8…
06-17 21:39:07	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	43	81¢	$35	0x7401fa…
06-16 19:39:31	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0x6d7e49…
06-16 19:39:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x8d3197…
06-16 19:38:56	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$9	0xd6d691…
06-16 19:38:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xe01dab…
06-16 19:38:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	12¢	$4	0x182ab6…
06-16 19:37:38	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xcf3ffb…
06-16 19:37:28	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x23139b…
06-16 19:37:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xf9fd66…
05-13 03:57:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x605b33…
05-13 03:56:12	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x3fdd45…
05-11 05:48:25	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xcb55bc…
05-11 03:48:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x1e42bd…
05-11 03:47:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x0558af…
05-11 03:44:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xace098…
05-11 03:43:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xa2138c…
05-11 03:43:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xafcd22…
05-06 00:04:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	81¢	$32	0x44011e…
05-01 22:19:14	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x1a9483…
05-01 22:19:10	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x247530…
05-01 22:17:50	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x18b7eb…
05-01 22:11:00	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xc68d58…
05-01 17:33:40	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xd29d54…
05-01 17:33:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x8898db…
05-01 17:32:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x0efb88…
04-30 18:53:56	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of April?	Yes	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x852d24…
04-29 14:10:40	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xbc2203…
04-29 14:08:24	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x70e25a…
04-27 04:46:08	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x176afa…
04-25 19:00:58	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	No	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0x427251…
04-25 18:42:20	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x9d1406…
04-25 16:40:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x4d9c55…
04-23 22:03:36	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	23	58¢	$13	0x9bf5b3…
04-23 22:02:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x2b2311…
04-23 03:50:02	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x7b0583…
04-23 03:48:02	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x662646…
04-23 03:45:42	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of April?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x5ef539…
04-22 19:28:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x5dc354…
04-22 19:27:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x786132…
04-22 19:25:06	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	26	78¢	$20	0x579efc…
04-21 20:05:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xadbbfc…
04-20 07:00:30	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 end of April?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x1cc5ad…
04-20 06:31:02	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of April?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xac1104…
04-20 06:30:24	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of April?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xd31980…
04-20 04:24:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x8fe9fd…
04-20 04:19:32	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x1950f8…
04-20 04:18:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x7a0272…
04-20 04:16:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x4d5588…
04-19 04:48:28	bitcoin above 76k on april 19	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xec0e83…
04-19 04:45:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x7a6835…
04-17 21:03:46	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x943ac2…
04-17 13:28:24	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x5b01a9…
04-17 13:28:06	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x55e78c…
04-17 13:27:34	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x34a050…
04-17 13:23:32	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0a596e…
04-17 13:19:30	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xec6e7e…
04-14 03:30:41	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xfaac16…
04-14 01:44:09	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x2b328d…
04-09 16:30:53	ufc pau2 aza 2026 04 11	Paulo Costa	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x0f01c7…
04-09 16:27:41	ufc jproch car6 2026 04 11	Jirí Procházka	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0ca0e5…
04-05 05:31:57	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x522430…
04-05 05:31:43	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x535f79…
04-05 05:30:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x6d327f…
04-05 05:30:01	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x874be8…
04-04 16:48:19	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	95	88¢	$84	0x9530cb…
04-04 16:37:09	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0xaa098a…
04-02 20:33:43	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xfe088d…
04-02 05:28:41	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x5e5f49…
04-01 02:34:59	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x8980d8…
04-01 02:34:57	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x0a6d61…
03-27 05:41:59	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	69¢	$8	0xe47121…
03-27 05:40:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xf8139c…
03-20 21:20:37	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	27	72¢	$20	0x694e10…
03-20 21:19:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0xca8ff3…
03-20 21:19:03	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0xe11ba4…
03-20 21:18:31	will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 795 942	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xfcf4a5…
03-20 05:03:15	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x620fda…
03-20 05:02:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x79ad19…
03-20 05:02:45	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xf2e59b…
03-17 16:27:53	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xef964e…
03-17 16:27:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x5c8630…
03-17 14:42:35	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xfc3d54…
03-11 01:32:23	will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026 795 942	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xe69cce…
03-04 14:59:07	will the fed cutpausecut in the next three decisions decjanmar	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xf9bb06…
03-04 14:59:01	will the fed decide differently in the next three decisions decjanmar	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x834c9d…
03-04 14:58:29	ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	Max Holloway	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x172902…
02-28 02:16:59	ufc bra2 lon 2026 02 28	Moreno	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xebf09f…